Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 1:18 PM   Moonset 1:44 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Today - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - W nw winds 5 kt becoming S sw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Fri night - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W in the evening. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

GMZ600 354 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - Southerly winds will increase along with building seas late in the week ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area late Thursday night through Saturday. Offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.

FXUS62 KMFL 160706 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 306 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A weakening frontal boundary associated with a mid-level trough over the Eastern US will slowly push southward over South Florida today, leading to a slight wind shift to a westerly direction over most of the region, and possibly WNW for northern portions of the CWA
This westerly flow will become brisk in the low to mid levels and breezy at the surface, likely limiting the infiltration of an east coast sea breeze. While the overall pattern will involve weak forcing, there will be sufficient moisture, surface heating, and cooler temps aloft (-8 to -9 deg C at 500mb) to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. Some storms could become strong to severe, primarily across the Lake Okeechobee region and northern areas of the east coast metro, where forcing will be strongest and temps aloft will be coolest.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed these areas in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts and large hail.

On Friday, a shortwave mid-level ridge will shift across the eastern Gulf and build over the Florida Peninsula, while the remnant and diffuse frontal boundary retracts back north a bit. This setup will result in an overall drier day due to a more stable airmass, but a few showers and even a thunderstorm or two will remain possible along sea breeze boundary collisions with remnant low-level moisture in place.

Temperatures will continue to be a concern both today and Friday, with high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s along the Gulf Coast, and mid to even upper 90s over the interior and east coast.
Elevated dew points will drive peak heat indices into the triple digits, and could rise as high as 104-108 degrees for a short duration across most of South Florida. This could necessitate a Heat Advisory at some point, but at this time the highest indices are not expected to be of long enough duration (2 or more hours), and cloud cover from convection should help limit this as well, but this will be monitored. Overall, whether an advisory is issued or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or to take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The main story through the weekend will be the potential for hazardous heat as a hot and humid airmass remains over the area with south- southwest low-level flow and troughing off to the north. Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. High temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
With the moist airmass in place, there will also be a threat for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the northern half of the area.

By late in the weekend into early next week, the mid-level troughing over the Southeast US will begin to dip further south and stall out in the area, finally sending a front through South Florida. Ahead of and along the front, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms, with some strong storms possible. After the front clears the area, a slightly cooler airmass will settle in through mid-week and provide relief from the recent stretch of heat, with high temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, and low temperatures in the 70s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There will be a chance of reduced flight categories in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning over all terminals. The risk of storms will decrease for most terminals by late morning, but another round of thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon particularly at KPBI. Winds will generally favor a W-SW direction through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the next few days with light to moderate west-southwest flow gradually turning southerly by this weekend.
There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.



BEACHES
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents along the Gulf coast today with onshore flow. Along the Atlantic, rip current risks will be low over the next several days with generally light, offshore flow.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 94 77 93 80 / 30 10 30 0 West Kendall 96 74 95 77 / 20 10 20 0 Opa-Locka 96 77 95 80 / 40 10 30 0 Homestead 94 76 93 80 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 94 77 91 80 / 40 10 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 94 77 93 80 / 40 10 20 0 Pembroke Pines 97 77 96 80 / 40 10 30 0 West Palm Beach 93 74 92 77 / 50 10 20 0 Boca Raton 95 75 93 78 / 40 10 20 0 Naples 90 77 91 79 / 30 0 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Everglades City
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Thu -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:10 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:15 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:35 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:26 PM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Everglades City, Barron River, Florida, Tide feet

Indian Key
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Thu -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:04 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:47 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:29 PM EDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:58 PM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Indian Key, Florida, Tide feet

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