Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 8:32 AM   Moonset 11:05 PM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of today - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except W 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: W sw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tonight - N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sun - N winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W nw. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.Sun night - N winds 5 kt becoming E se after midnight. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Mon - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. NEar shore, gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot. Wave detail: se 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt nearshore and se 15 to 20 kt offshore. Gusts up to 25 kt well offshore. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S se 3 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W sw in the evening. Seas 1 to 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers.

GMZ600 327 Am Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis - An moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow this morning will slowly diminish today. A light to moderate onshore flow returns to the marine area Sunday into the early part of the coming week as a system approaches the area from the west, bringing light to moderate onshore flow for Monday and Tuesday.

FXUS62 KMFL 111333 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 933 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 917 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Winds gradually veering to a more WSW flow as a frontal boundary approaches the area from the north. While latest model solutions insist in weakening the boundary significantly by the time it reacehs the northern half of the CWA later today, there might be enough low level moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms to form. Sea breeze boundaries could again provide the extra lifting for shower/storm activity, but no widespread coverage is anticipated.
Best chances will reside north of I75, but can't be ruled out further south.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

What was once a vigorous cold front being propelled by an deamplifying trough over the eastern United States will weaken as it moves south across the peninsula of Florida today. Even with some moisture pooling along the boundary as it enters south central Florida this morning and settles over southern Florida for the rest of the weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain fairly restrained due to some presence of deeper layered drier air and the lack of support aloft for the cold front. The parent low will transit across the Atlantic off the Carolinas towards eastern Canada through the weekend.

The westerly flow will keep warm temperatures over a good portion of the peninsula and allow the airmass to warm over the peninsula before reaching the east coast metro area where widespread 90s can be expected again today except for sea breeze cooled areas near the coast. The increasing cloud cover and northerly to easterly flow on Sunday will help cool some portions of the east coast metro a few degrees but the heat will continue inland and across Southwest Florida. Widespread triple digit heat index values are forecast today with mid to upper 90s on Sunday except for Miami-Dade County where the triple digit heat index values will return for another day.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The next disturbance begins to emerge over the central United States early on Monday with the formerly stalled front over southern Florida beginning its retreat northward ahead of the next cold front. A mid-level will move across the Mississippi River valley Monday in Tuesday before moving into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys by mid-week. This will lead to a surge in moisture across the region with the focus remaining to the north of the forecast area closer to the frontal boundary near the Interstate 10 corridor in northern Florida or the wiregrass regions of South Georgia and Alabama. As the mid-level low is reabsorbed into the mean flow and pushes east into the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and finally into the Atlantic, the cold front will slide south across the peninsula once again settling over central or south central Florida around Wednesday before the boundary retreats back northward late in the week as the next impulse moves across the southeastern United States to close out the week and kick off next weekend.

Hot temperatures will return by mid-week and persist through the end of the period. Some days could see widespread triple digit heat index values which will need to be monitored closely in case the threat of heat illness requires a Heat Advisory.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR prevails through around 15Z, then some MVFR/VFR periods are possible with showers or thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminals, mainly over the Atlantic coast. W/SW winds will increase to around 12 kts after 15Z with gusts in the 20kts range.
Winds should continue to veer later tonight as a front crosses the area, possibly shifting NNW after 06Z.

MARINE
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Moderate to fresh southwesterly to westerly winds today as a cold frontal approaches the area. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms on today as the frontal boundary moves into the region which could linger into Sunday over some of the local waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

As winds trend more westerly/offshore over the weekend, the risk will decrease across the Atlantic beaches. The risk will grow with the return of onshore flow by Monday along the Atlantic beaches.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place over the next few days, with minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 96 75 92 77 / 20 10 10 10 West Kendall 97 72 94 74 / 10 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 97 74 93 76 / 30 10 10 10 Homestead 96 74 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 95 75 89 77 / 30 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 95 75 89 76 / 40 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 98 75 93 77 / 30 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 94 73 89 75 / 40 20 10 10 Boca Raton 96 74 89 76 / 40 20 20 10 Naples 90 73 90 73 / 10 0 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Everglades City
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Sat -- 12:29 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:32 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
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Everglades City, Barron River, Florida, Tide feet

Indian Key
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Sat -- 04:43 AM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:26 AM EDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:08 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
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Indian Key, Florida, Tide feet

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