Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 10:14 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 307 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this morning. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Choppy on the bay. Thursday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Choppy on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 307 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis - With the pressure gradient over the lower texas coast weakening the winds and seas will continue to decrease. Light to moderate onshore flow with moderate seas is expected to persist through the period. Seas over the gulf waters are still expected to be hazardous to the next couple of hours as the small craft advisory is still in effect to later in the morning.

FXUS64 KBRO 291123 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 623 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The start of the short term forecast is expected to be a bit similar to the last several days, with warm and humid conditions. The difference for today however, is that the onshore flow is not expected to be as strong. With a zonal flow aloft set up for the majority of the short term forecast period and a weak mid-level ridge starting to inch in at the end of the period. The upper level synoptic flow is not the best for any sort of development for showers and thunderstorms. While SPC still does have Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in a general thunderstorm outlook with a sliver of Zapata County in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for today. Tomorrow they have the entire region in just a general thunderstorm outlook. While the onshore flow will help bring in some low-level moisture, and while there is also plenty of MUCAPE with values over 3000 J/kg. The biggest hindrance to the growth of showers and thunderstorms is the dry air in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. Another factor is that the forecast soundings for the region still show a cap persisting into the afternoon as well. While the conditions are not favorable, not going to rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm popping for a short period of time. Thus, rain chances for the short term period are in the range of 20 to 30 percent.

As for temperatures, thanks to the onshore flow, the warm temperatures are expected to persist through the period. The high temperatures for today and tomorrow look to be in the 90s for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While along the coast and on the island the high temperatures will be in the upper 80s.
While some low-level clouds might be present during the morning hours, they are expected to mix out before the day time heating really gets going during the afternoon. As for the low temperatures, all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be in the 70s.

Finally, the High Risk of Rip Currents has been extended once again, as the swell period of 8 seconds and wave heights around 5 feet look to persist for the next 36 hours. Swell period looks to be remain elevated as long as the high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days until the said high pressure weakens allowing for the winds and seas to come down over the Gulf of Mexico.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Synoptic pattern has not varied much over the last few model runs with a quasi-zonal flow over much of the CONUS this week. The northern side a subtropical ridge edges into South Texas while farther north an elongated trough will pass west to east over the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes.

The subtropical ridge to provide above normal temperatures for much of the week with model guidance still indicating amonalies of 3 to 8 degrees for highs and lows which translates to highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Dew points remain high elevating after heat indices 100-107 each afternoon. The most dangerous heat days look to be Thursday and Friday where the probability of heat indices greater than 105 degrees are low to medium or 20-50%.

A steady state moderate pressure gradient between ridging over the Gulf and low pressure across the Southern Plains maintains daily breezy to occasional windy conditions. On average the region can expect to see daytime breezes in the 15-25 mph range with Wednesday and Thursday looking like the windiest days

Rain chances continue to be limited through the work week with isolated convection still in the offering Wednesday and Thursday with some added moisture depth working with a weak disturbances in the westerly flow. Better chance continue to be indicated Friday and Saturday as sufficient moisture pools in advance of a frontal boundary moving into Central or even Southcentral Texas. PoPs remain low across the board, 20-40 percent with best chances west of I-69C.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Largely MVFR conditions through the TAF period, with a break during the afternoon that will allow for VFR conditions as clouds mix out. Southerly to southeasterly winds will remain light to moderate, but will shift to more easterly direction during the day. More clouds are expected to return tonight and there is a possibility that some low-level clouds could see the TAF sites go into IFR for a short period of time.

MARINE
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today through Tuesday..Conditions over the waters are expected to continue to improve during the day as the winds start to weaken.
Light to moderate onshore flow with moderate seas is the expected trend through Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday and may cause locally elevated winds and seas.

Tuesday through Sunday: A static weather pattern will maintain a moderate pressure gradient for the remainder of the week and into next weekend. Weaker surface ridge extending over the Eastern Gulf to combine with lower pressure over NE Mexico and West Texas provide moderate onshore winds and a steady state sea state of 4 to 6 feet. This should be maintain periodic small craft caution wording for most of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 77 89 77 / 20 10 20 0 HARLINGEN 92 74 92 74 / 10 10 20 0 MCALLEN 94 76 93 77 / 10 10 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 76 81 76 / 10 10 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 74 87 74 / 20 10 20 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155- 170-175.

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Matamoros
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Mon -- 12:02 AM CST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:14 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:07 AM CST     1.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

Port Isabel
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Mon -- 12:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:19 AM CDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:12 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:41 PM CDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

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