Friday, August18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 8:03PM Friday August 18, 2017 10:45 PM CDT (03:45 UTC) Moonrise 2:46AMMoonset 4:36PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1006 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 1006 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis...light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas as broad surface high pressure persists. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms will be possible at times.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug

Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 182328 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
628 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Broad surface high pressure will sustain continued
light to moderate southeast winds with afternoon gusts. May see a
few overnight low clouds, as well as day time low cumulus, with
vfr conditions the rule.

Prev discussion issued 401 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017
short term (tonight through Saturday night): the 500 mb subtropical
ridge situated across the northern gulf of mexico today slowly
shifts westward through the period, but will remain the dominant
feature in the short term. Associated subsidence will maintain
generally rainfree conditions across the inland areas, as moisture
remains generally confined to 850 mb and below. Maintained silent
pops across inland areas, for any very isolated activity that
develops along the potential seabreeze; a few streamer showers
remain possible offshore timed with the typical diurnal pattern,
where moisture is a little deeper. Persistence remains the name of
the game, with hot and humid summer conditions continuing and
have made only minor tweaks to the temperature grids. Highs
expected to top out past the century mark generally west of 77,
with only slightly cooler temperatures closer to the coast.

Overnights to remain warm and muggy with lows in the mid to upper
70s and lower 80s.

Long term (Sunday through Friday): a few changes to the forecast
based on the big picture, which is slowly coming into focus.

Sunday ends where Saturday leaves off... A perfect weekend for a
dip in the pool or the beach with plenty of august heat and
sunshine along with light winds and minimal surf waves currents.

For Monday through Wednesday, minor deeper moisture impulses
appear ahead of a very slow moving inverted 500 mb trough embedded
underneath the sprawling southern u.S. Ridge, which shows up
nicely on traditional water vapor centered over western cuba and
the northern caribbean. This trough gets a nudge from the
southward displaced bermuda high (east of florida) and eventually
crosses into texas by late week. Both the GFS and ECMWF slowed
down the movement of this system as it approaches texas and now
appear to hang it up across south texas before washing it out at
some point next weekend.

Ahead of the trough axis, north to northeast flow above 700 mb
keeps deep dry air more in place than not, and this is the story
through Wednesday, at least. Assuming the model trends are
correct, the deeper moisture arrives by late week - if not
Thursday, then on Friday. All this said, those are day 6 7
forecast and a lot can change between now and then given the
difficulty of forecasting tutt-type systems this far out.

For the sensible weather (beyond Sunday), have continued
mentionable rain across mainly the eastern third of the valley
and the king ranch for eclipse day (Monday) but even then isolated
should be the coverage. Outside of any showers storms skies will
be a mix of clouds and sunshine, and if the sea breeze activates
the precipitation the beach may be the best place to see the
eclipse (generally from 1145 am to 245 pm, though only partial) as
northeast winds aloft would push any anvils away from the coast.

Any anvil or debris clouds could thin the Sun across the mid
valley, but exactly where that would be is anyone's guess now.

Even with a few more clouds, temperatures will only be shaved a
degree or two from Sunday's highs... Still a couple degrees above
average overall.

Deep dry air looks to be the rule Tuesday and Wednesday in
northerly flow aloft ahead of the trough. However, still enough
low level moisture and with winds light calm to start each day
can't rule out more isolated late morning through early to mid
afternoon sea breeze activity, which would start near the coast
and redevelop inland, clearing out the beaches. Model sky cover
blends pick up on this idea and have reduced rain chances to
"slight" (20 percent) with any morning cells reforming over the
lower mid valley away from the beach. Raised afternoon
temperatures by a degree or two and lowered sunrise temperatures
for both more clear partly cloudy skies and light to near calm
winds at sunrise each day. Could see some fuzzy haze fog each
morning but not expecting enough visibility restrictions to

By Thursday the trough gradually passes the longitude of the lower
valley and deeper moisture appears to follow. The morning should
still be dry across the upper valley rio grande plains but all
areas have a shot at isolated showers storms during the afternoon,
out west due to westward progress of the sea breeze and toward
the coast due to increasing deep layer moisture. Due to
uncertainty with the timing of the trough elected to stay at 20
percent (slight) chances for now. By Friday, with increasing model
consensus on deeper moisture, raised chances a bit to 30 percent
(scattered) category. Could easily see higher probabilities and
potential for locally heavier rainfall but far too soon to
speculate given it's a day 7 forecast and uncertainty described
above. Temperatures especially Friday should dip below triple
digits in locations like mcallen due to the clouds and potential
precipitation. The chance value is a split between the
deterministic GFS and ecmwf.

Marine: (today through Saturday night): at 2 pm, seas were 3 feet
at buoy020 with southeast winds around 6 knots. Pressure gradient
remains weak through the period with surface high pressure draped
across the gulf of mexico. Light to moderate southeast winds and
low seas will prevail, with isolated showers not out of the
question tonight into Saturday morning.

Sunday through Wednesday night: forecast rather simple with broad
but weak surface ridge covering most of the gulf and lee side of
sierra madre trough much weaker than earlier this week when upper
level trough helped enhance the pressure gradient. Bottom line?
light east to southeast winds and slight seas with a general
southeast swell of no consequence through the period. The only
concern would be isolated to perhaps scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly Monday through Wednesday night, tending to
favor the waters between 20 to 60 nm at most times, with
nearshore laguna activity mainly during the early morning through
early afternoon, at most. Overall, a good spell for boating and
fishing compared with many stretches of nuisance or worse wind
waves this summer. Those will be 2 feet or less through the

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi46 min 84°F 85°F1015.6 hPa (+1.7)
BZST2 23 mi46 min SE 9.9 G 13 83°F 84°F1014.8 hPa (+1.7)
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi46 min SSE 9.9 G 12 83°F 1016 hPa (+1.7)
RLIT2 29 mi46 min SE 16 G 18 85°F 86°F1015.5 hPa (+2.0)
PMNT2 47 mi46 min 84°F 88°F1015.6 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi53 minSE 1110.00 miFair83°F78°F85%1015.3 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi53 minSE 1210.00 miFair84°F77°F80%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE6SE5SE5SE4S6S6S4CalmSE3E4SE7S9SE9S8E6S5SE15
1 day agoS13S12S13S11S9S9S7SE5SE5SE6S11S17S17
2 days agoS12SE12S11S8SE8SE11S8S10S8S11SE12S17S17S16S16

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Fri -- 03:46 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:13 AM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:35 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:35 PM CDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
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Fri -- 03:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:58 AM CDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:47 PM CDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.