Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:40PM Sunday November 19, 2017 2:51 AM CST (08:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:44AMMoonset 6:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 901 Pm Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect through Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots shifting north 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Rough on the bay. Isolated rain showers early in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Rough on the bay subsiding to choppy in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Monday..East winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop in the afternoon. Chance of rain showers.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. A light chop on the bay subsiding to smooth after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. A light chop on the bay subsiding to smooth after midnight.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 901 Pm Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis..Strong north winds and elevated seas in the wake of a cold front will persist through Sunday. Another cold front Tuesday night will bring strong north winds and elevated seas through Wednesday night or Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug

Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 190526 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1126 pm cst Sat nov 18 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation A cold front recently passed through the cwa,
shifting winds to breezy north. A few showers accompanied the front
near the bro terminal, but with the front now through, active
weather concerns essentially will be over. A few low clouds were
generated along the front, and will stick around through morning,
but tafs have been and will remainVFR. High pressure will spread
over the area through Sunday, with moderate and gusty north winds
slowly decreasing over the next 24 hours.

Prev discussion issued 533 pm cst Sat nov 18 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation... A cold front is currently pushing through the cwa,
with winds shifting to moderate and gusty north in its wake. No
real weather is associated with the front, soVFR tafs should
continue tonight and into Sunday, with moderate and gusty north

Prev discussion... Issued 324 pm cst Sat nov 18 2017
short term (tonight through Sunday night): another gorgeous mostly
sunny day today across deep south texas. There has been some
widely scattered CU right along the coast (sea breeze), however,
not much to write home about. Once again our temperatures are
soaring to near record territory. As of 2pm we haven't quite made
it there yet, but we are close. Temperatures across the
middle upper valley and northern ranchlands have really jumped
over the last hour or so, especially as the surface flow veers
southwesterly ahead of the approaching cold front.

Speaking of cold front, it's moving toward our area pretty swiftly
this afternoon. The front is very subtle on satellite imagery with
the only evidence being dust being picked up around the big bend
region. Decided to drop pops even further given the lack of
meaningful clouds... Much less precip currently associated with the
boundary. That said, if there were to be any precip it would likely
be along or off shore. Winds have begin to shift just ahead of the
front along the prefrontal trough. The main front should push
through between 6pm-12am with a strong push of dry cool northerly

Behind the front a cooler and drier air mass will filter into the
region, so say good bye to near record warmth for a while.

Temperatures will top out in the 60s to near 70 and overnight lows
will range from the upper 40s across the northern ranchlands to the
middle and upper 50s closer to the coast.

Long term (Monday through Saturday): a 500 mb trough axis will
move over much of tx on mon. Some marginal moisture return occurs
over the rgv and deep south tx as the trough crosses the region
and will maintain a mention of some low end pops early next week.

After this trough exits the region, another pretty fast moving
short wave will then dive southeast across the south central
plains states on tues. This next trough axis is expected to
eventually transition to a closed low over the mid gulf coast
region late Wed of next week. This will bring through another cold
front through the rgv late tues with a reinforcing shot of cooler
canadian air moving into the region from the north. Model
moisture levels have been diminishing over the last several runs
so this midweek FROPA looks drier than previously anticipated. The
cooler airmass will then start to moderate steadily through the
end of next week with temperatures warming some through next
weekend with dry conditions continuing. The thanksgiving holiday
is shaping up pretty nicely for the rgv with near zero pops and
expected temps near climo for late november.

The ECMWF and GFS show reasonable agreement for temps through day
7 for the rgv with the GFS mex numbers showing a bit of a warmer
bias. Will go close to a model blend for maxes and mins through
the extended period. The ECMWF is wetter for Mon and Wed versus
the GFS with the most recent run. Will likely go closer to the
drier GFS numbers as the anticipated 500 mb pattern in the longer
range is not terribly conducive for decent pops due to the
general limited moisture advection.

Overall confidence in the longer range outlook is above average.

Marine (now through Sunday night): marine conditions will begin to
deteriorate through the afternoon and evening as a strong cold front
moves through the region. Winds will quickly shift to the north and
northeast with time. Sustained winds offshore will likely top out at
around 30kts, however, there will be frequent gusts up to 40 knots
through the overnight period. Seas will be building with to as high
as 10 feet off shore.

The laguna madre will be gusty as well with sustained winds topping
out in the low to mid 20 knot range. Think that all headlines look
reasonable for both gulf waters and laguna at this time. Can't rule
out a rogue gust or two in over the laguna up to gale force.

Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue right through
Sunday with some gradual improvement toward the end of the period as
pressure gradient (wind) begins to relax.

Monday through thanksgiving: a pretty weak pressure gradient will
prevail on Mon and tues as the center of the surface ridge shifts
out to the east of the gulf coast. In the wake of the FROPA late
tues expect the pressure gradient to strengthen once again
possibly pushing the marine conditions up close to scec SCA range
into Wed and Wed night. The pressure gradient then relaxes once
again on thanksgiving allowing for more quiet marine conditions
later next week.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for winds until 9 am cst Sunday for gmz130-

Gale warning until 6 am cst Sunday for gmz150-155-170-175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
54 63

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42045 - PI-745 TABS K 59 mi111 min ENE 23 G 29 78°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi58 minN 15 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F51°F49%1020.1 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi58 minN 19 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy69°F52°F55%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS10S9S9S9S7S7S12S16S17S17S19S13S15S11S10SE5SE4SE3CalmN3N10
1 day agoS6S6SE5S4S5S5S9S12S13S14
2 days agoE3CalmE4CalmE5SE4SE8SE10SE11SE9SE9SE10S13S11S10SE6SE6SE5SE5SE6SE6SE3SE4S5

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Sun -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:43 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:12 AM CST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:19 PM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
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Sun -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:42 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:22 AM CST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:38 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:41 PM CST     1.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.