Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:43PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:17 PM CDT (00:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:42PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 402 Pm Cdt Fri Mar 22 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Patchy fog.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 402 Pm Cdt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis..Light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through Monday night. A weak cold front will move into the area on Tuesday, temporarily shifting winds to northeast and east Tuesday and Tuesday night. Marine fog will return to coastal areas beginning Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 222358 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
658 pm cdt Fri mar 22 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Moderate to gusty southeast winds and low to mid level
clouds prevail across deep south texas this evening.VFR conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours. However, ceilings may briefly drop
to MVFR levels at times. Southeasterly winds will continue through
the period with higher gusts possible during the day on Saturday.

Prev discussion issued 253 pm cdt Fri mar 22 2019
short term (tonight through Saturday night): clouds have been on
the increase this afternoon after a mostly sunny to partly cloudy
start today. Temperatures have still been able to warm into the
upper 70s to near 80 with the stronger late march Sun angle out
there. Aloft, ridging is finally moving east of the region allowing
for a stronger negatively tilted shortwave trough to carve across
the four-corner states. With the trough axis, there is a very subtle
h5 impulse that should rotate through the region later today and
overnight tonight. Guidance shows this sparking some convection
across the mexican plateau with some QPF getting as far east as
starr and zapata counties. With the relatively dry air aloft and
strong EML in place, don't think this will be much of a concern
overnight, but still can't go zero pops at the moment, especially
across the west.

As the short wave begins to eject northeastward (given the negative
orientation) this should help much of the dynamics stay well north
of the region through Saturday. Still, a very subtle impulse or two
may be just enough to help keep clouds in place and provide yet
again a nonzero chance of showers t'storms. The short term period
ends with a zonal progressive upper level flow with a nice
warmer moist return flow continuing at the surface. We'll be
watching as the southeast flow begins to bring in 70+ dew points
across sea surfaces that are in the lower 60s. This of course would
be the recipe for marine fog at least for spi, port mansfield, and
perhaps even port is. It (the marine fog) all depends on the
strength of the low level flow.

Long term (Sunday through Friday):12z model package remain in
good agreement and consistency with little to no changes from the
previous forecast package. Mid level ridge will be just to west of
texas Sunday and Monday and building over the region Tuesday and
Wednesday. The ridge is expected to track east Thursday and Friday
as energy from the pacific advances eastward.

Dry and warm conditions prevail Sunday and Monday with a deep dry
layer between 850-300mb providing mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies. Temperatures will be warming above late march normals of u70s
to 80 degrees with Monday still looking at 4 to 8 degrees above
normal. Some locations along and west of highway 281 69c could see
highs nearing or exceeding 90 degrees. Rain chances still look
minimal Monday night and Tuesday as moisture deepens in advance of a
weak cold front associated with the a low pressure trough crossing
the central plains. Subtle forcing and the added moisture could
allow for a slight chance of showers or evening an isolated
thunderstorm along the front Monday night early Tuesday.

Temperatures to cool off to near normal readings Tuesday into
Wednesday as northeast winds ushering in the cooler airmass. Surface
ridging is indicated to push east by the end of the work week with
gulf moisture and temperatures rebounding as southerly winds
increase in advance of strengthen low pressure trough moving into
the rockies.

Marine:(tonight through Saturday night): benign marine conditions
out there with generally less than 3 feet wave heights and winds
right around 10 knots or so. These conditions are likely to persist
through much of the short term with perhaps a subtle uptick in winds
and seas expected this weekend. There is some concern that marine
fog will develop across the nearshore waters and maybe the laguna as
higher moisture advects over a relatively cool sea surface. Fog
development will depend exactly on wind speeds late Saturday and
into early Sunday morning.

Sunday through Wednesday: main concern will be some patchy fog
which may become dense at times Sunday into Monday morning with a
warm moist flow expected over the cooler near shore shelf waters.

With last weeks cloudy conditions and below normal temperatures
the laguna madre and near shore gulf waters have dropped into the
low to mid 60s. A increase fetch of higher dew point air from the
southern gulf will be well entrenched by Sunday increasing the
confidence for some dense sea fog. Otherwise, weak high pressure
over the gulf to support a light to moderate onshore pressure
gradient Sunday through Monday. A weak front to ooze south through
the coastal waters Tuesday with winds turning north and seas
building to moderate levels. High pressure drifts east Wednesday
with winds returning southeast but retaining moderate strength.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
63


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi35 min ESE 12 G 14 70°F 67°F1017.4 hPa
BZST2 23 mi35 min ESE 8 G 8.9 67°F 66°F1016.6 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi35 min ESE 7 G 9.9 68°F 1017.8 hPa
RLIT2 29 mi35 min ESE 13 G 17 70°F 75°F1017.3 hPa
PMNT2 47 mi35 min 71°F 67°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi24 minSE 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F64°F71%1016.9 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi24 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F62°F73%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E6E7E6E4E3E4N3E5E7E7E6SE6SE6SE12SE16
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1 day agoNE7NE5NE5NE5NE4CalmN3NE4N4CalmCalmN5N4N5NE9NE9NE9NE8E9NE7E8E9E9E9
2 days agoNE6NE5E5NE5SE3E3E3NE3N3CalmNE4N3N3N3CalmNE5NE4E7E7E10NE11NE10NE10NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:29 AM CST     1.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:36 AM CST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM CST     0.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:42 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:15 PM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.711.11.21.21.10.90.70.60.40.40.50.60.70.90.90.90.70.50.30.20.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:44 AM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:30 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:07 PM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:06 PM CDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:29 PM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.70.91.11.21.21.110.90.70.60.50.60.60.80.90.90.90.80.60.40.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.