Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:04PM Saturday January 19, 2019 8:37 PM CST (02:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:40PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 626 Pm Cst Sat Jan 19 2019
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until midnight cst tonight...
Tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots through midnight decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rough bay waters this evening, becoming choppy after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds around 5 knots becoming south after midnight. Smooth on the bay building to a light chop after midnight.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay building to rough after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Rough on the bay.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay building to rough after midnight. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 20 to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Rough on the bay. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots shifting east in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 626 Pm Cst Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis..The marine conditions will be less than favorable for most of the upcoming forecast. Strong northwest winds and high seas will persist tonight in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier today. The conditions will gradually improve later this weekend, but strong return flow will set up Monday through Tuesday, with strong south winds and elevated seas. Another cold front will arrive late Tuesday night to Wednesday morning, bringing strong north winds and elevated seas once again to the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 200147 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
747 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation The gustiness of the NW winds affecting the region in
the wake of the frontal passage this morning is starting to
decrease gradually. The very dry airmass moving in place over the
region will maintainVFR conditions over the next 24 hours for all
three rgv airports. Expect the low level winds to swing around
back from the e-se late in the TAF period.

Discussion Updated for latest marine discussion below.

Marine Pretty hazardous marine conditions will persist into the
evening and overnight hours. Have updated the latest marine
forecast for the most current hazards. Will likely update the
hazards over the next few hours to extend an SCA through the
overnight hours for the gulf waters. Will also take a closer look
at the SCA for the bay waters to see if it needs to be extended
past the midnight hour.

Discussion Updated for latest fire weather discussion below.

Fire weather The relative humidity values across the area are
rebounding while the surface and 20 foot winds are steadily
slackening off. This is reducing the fire weather threat to the
area. Accordingly, the red flag warning has been allowed to
expire. Althrough the red flag warning has expired, residents of
deep south texas and the rgv are strongly discouraged from any
sort of burning this evening and tonight.

Prev discussion issued 304 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019
short term (now through Sunday night): breezy north to northwest
winds continue across deep south texas this afternoon.

Temperatures should reach the upper 60s to the lower 70s before
the stronger CAA arrives. North winds will gradually diminish to
moderate levels this evening and into the overnight hours as
surface high pressure builds into the region. Low temperatures
tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 40s. Dry
northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure in place will
provide abundant sunshine and light winds across the area on
Sunday. Slightly cooler than average temperatures are expected on
Sunday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s at the
beaches to the low to mid 60s inland. Low temperatures Sunday
night should fall into the 40s areawide.

Long term (Monday through Saturday): a broad flat 500mb ridge
across northeast mexico and the south-central united states Monday
will move eastward as a 500mb trough develops and moves eastward across
the western u.S. Tuesday. Low to mid level moisture will increase
across portions of south texas Tuesday into tues night and this
will provide a chance of showers across the CWA tues night into
Wednesday. A cold front will move through deep south tx late tues
night into early Wed morning and there is a small window for
elevated convection to develop Wed morning through early wed
afternoon before the upper level trough moves through southwest tx
and northeast mexico Wed afternoon. Cooler air will filter into
the area in the wake of the front Wednesday with drier air aloft
moving into the area Wed afternoon. Subsidence will prevail
through the rest of the week into the weekend even as a weak 500mb
shortwave trough moves through south texas Friday. A stronger
500mb trough will develop and move across the east-central u.S.

Saturday bringing a cold front through south tx. Not much moisture
along and ahead of this front so not much in the way of rain
chances are expected through the rest of the forecast period.

Marine (now through Sunday night): adverse marine conditions will
continue on the lower texas coastal waters through tonight. A gale
warning remains in effect for the gulf waters until 6 pm. A small
craft advisory is in effect for the laguna madre through midnight
and is in effect for the gulf waters from 6 pm to midnight for the
gulf waters. Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed
into Sunday morning due to lingering strong winds and high seas.

Some improvement is expected on Sunday as surface high pressure
settles across the area.

Monday through Thursday... Moderate to strong south to southeast
winds will prevail across the coastal waters Monday with low
pressure across the lee side of the rockies and high pressure
across the eastern united states increasing the pressure gradient
across the lower texas coast. Small craft advisories will likely
be needed for portions of the coastal waters Monday through
Tuesday before the pressure gradient weakens tues night as a cold
front moves into south texas. The front will move offshore the
lower texas coast late tues night into early Wed morning. Strong
to very strong north to northwest winds will develop across the
coastal waters in the wake of the front Wednesday with gusts to
gale force likely. A gale watch will likely be needed for the
offshore waters Wednesday with small craft advisories needed for
the laguna madre Wednesday. Winds will diminish Wed night and seas
will follow suit Thursday as the pressure gradient weakens across
the western gulf of mexico Wed night into Thursday. Light
northeast winds will prevail across the western gulf Thursday with
surface high pressure across the middle and upper tx coast.

Fire weather... Dry air continues to surge into the area this
afternoon in the wake of the morning cold front. Breezy to windy
north to northwest winds continue across portions of deep south
texas this afternoon. The combination of strong winds, low relative
humidity values, and cured fuels will result in critical fire
weather conditions through early this afternoon. A red flag warning
is now in effect until 6 pm this evening areawide. Winds will
gradually diminish through this late this evening as high pressure
builds into the region.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for winds until midnight cst tonight for
gmz130-132-135.

Gale warning until midnight cst tonight for gmz170-175.

Small craft advisory until midnight cst tonight for gmz150-155.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
short term aviation... 60
long term graphicast upper air... 65


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi43 min NNW 16 G 22 62°F 64°F1022.9 hPa
BZST2 23 mi43 min NNW 21 G 28 64°F 62°F1022.3 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi43 min NW 25 G 29 64°F 1023.1 hPa
RLIT2 29 mi43 min NW 13 G 17 60°F 59°F1023.5 hPa
PMNT2 47 mi43 min 59°F 66°F1023.9 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi44 minNW 15 G 2210.00 miFair63°F32°F31%1023.3 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi44 minNW 1410.00 miFair60°F34°F38%1023 hPa

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmNE3NE6CalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmS3SE5S4SE9S16S16S15S21
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N6N4N5NE6NE7N5NE5N6NE9NE7NE8NE5CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:39 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:17 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:25 AM CST     -0.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:56 PM CST     1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.10.30.711.21.31.41.31.31.21.11.11

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:38 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:17 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM CST     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:39 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:38 PM CST     1.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.611.21.41.41.41.41.31.31.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.