Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:41PM Friday November 16, 2018 8:22 PM CST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:52PMMoonset 12:37AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 403 Pm Cst Fri Nov 16 2018
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Scattered showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers likely through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots shifting northeast after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay. Showers likely.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Rain showers likely.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Showers likely.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 403 Pm Cst Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis..Weak high pressure situated over the western gulf of mexico will continue supporting light surface winds and low seas this evening and tonight. The gradient will tighten this weekend, leading to possible periodic small craft exercise caution conditions over the gulf waters. Increasing moisture and an approaching cold front are expected by Sunday night with the chance of showers and Thunderstorms into early next week. Elevated seas and moderate winds are expected behind the front late Sunday through Tuesday night due to a lingering surface trough of low pressure near the texas coastline. A small craft advisory will be possible across the lower texas gulf waters Sunday night and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 162352 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
552 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Vfr conditions are expected through the period with
some dry air and subsidence through the mid-levels keeping skies
mostly clear tonight. Onshore flow will bring moisture back on
Saturday with thickening low-level clouds expected late morning
and afternoon.

Prev discussion issued 301 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018
short term (tonight through Saturday night):a mostly
zonal progressive flow will reside aloft over deep south texas
through the short term period. At the surface, high pressure that
brought us below average temperatures will continue to gradually
slide eastward over the gulf of mexico. Surface winds have
transitioned to more of a southerly or southeasterly flow. This
should help increase moisture just a bit across the cwfa through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually increase too with some places
reaching near 80 degree in the mid and lower valley on Saturday.

Eventually, a cold frontal boundary will drop southward into tx
later this weekend just beyond the scope of the short term period.

As low level moisture increases and as a coastal trough sharpens
offshore, there is some developing QPF signal by later Saturday or
early Sunday. At this time the best signal resides right along the
coastline through 12z Sunday. The short term ends with cool, gloomy,
and damp conditions (what we tend to expect with a coastal trough).

Long term (Sunday through Friday):a lot of uncertainty is
creeping into the models mainly in the day to day pops and
temperatures details. Latest model suite remains rather wet
Sunday-Monday with pops beginning to taper off Tuesday. Current
thinking and trends for the travel day before thanksgiving (wed)
and thanksgiving day is for rain chances to be limited and
possibly ending by Thursday.

Shortwave energy within the subtropical southern stream looks to
produce a surface trough over south texas and NE mexico Sunday.

A influx of gulf moisture will be well underway with pwats
nearing 1.7 inches along the immediate coast. Rain chances
increase and Sunday looks wet with best chance along the coast
where some moderate rainfall is possible. A mid level trough
moves through the rockies Sunday with a cold front moving into
south texas Sunday night into Monday. Surface high pressure is
relative weak and mid level flow remains more zonal then northwest
to southeast so expect the surge of cooler air and the frontal
passage to be weak. Sunday night and Monday surface trough moves
east and sets up along or just off the coast as the cold front
pulls up stationary south of the rio grande. Surface convergence
and southeast 850mb flow over the relative cooler air is likely to
produce another good chance of rain Monday once again with the
best chances along the coast. All three models show widespread
coverage of rain with differences in amounts and placement. Looks
likely the ec is plagued by convective feedback east of kenedy
county with better overall QPF depicted by the gfs. As for
temperatures GFS remains the warmest while the NAM is much colder
and ec is in between the two for Monday.

For the latter half of the period as well as the holiday a strong
shortwave trough in the southern stream moves over texas
Wednesday. Coastal trough remains in place keeping the best rain
chances for the eastern coastal counties for Tuesday and early
Wednesday. Expecting light rain showers at times maybe some
drizzle at night. As the shortwave trough tracks over the state
Wednesday the the coastal trough begins to lift northeast and
shortwave ridge moves in from the west Thursday. The travel day
before thanksgiving may start off wet but may end up drier with
thanksgiving day may looking like a very nice day with mild
temperatures and decreasing cloudiness.

Marine:(tonight through Saturday night): favorable marine
conditions expected through much of the short term marine period.

High pressure will initially be in control with light winds and seas
across adjacent waters and the laguna. Eventually, the southerly
flow will begin to strengthen in time, especially toward the end of
the cycle as our next cold front begins to approach the region from
the north. Additionally, coastal troughing will begin developing
toward the end of the short term period. This will likely cause at
least cautionary headlines (scec).

Sunday through Wednesday... Weak cold front arrives early Monday
morning and looks to become stationary south of the coastal waters
later Monday and Tuesday. A coastal trough or low pressure area
may form along the front and begin to lift northeast later
Wednesday into thanksgiving day. Northeast flow in wake of the
front looks weak with only small craft exercise caution possible.

Stronger northerly flow and seas may develop later Wednesday and
Thursday with the departing low pressure area trough. Low end
small craft advisories may be necessary at that time.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
65


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi41 min Calm G 1 62°F 65°F1020.4 hPa
BZST2 23 mi41 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 69°F 68°F1019.6 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi41 min SE 7 G 8 68°F 1020.8 hPa
RLIT2 29 mi41 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 64°F 62°F1020.5 hPa
PMNT2 47 mi35 min 63°F 63°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair58°F55°F90%1020.5 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi30 minE 510.00 miFair58°F53°F84%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNW3CalmSE55E7
G15
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W3W4W4W4W4Calm5E6NE35E7SE8SE5SE4SE4
2 days agoN6NW6NW7NW7NW7NW6NW4NW4NW5W5NW6NW6N8NW9N8NW11N9NW11
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:37 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:52 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:25 PM CST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:40 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:48 PM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.31.21.21.11.111110.90.80.70.70.60.60.70.80.911.21.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:35 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:47 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:51 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:41 PM CST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:53 PM CST     1.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.51.41.41.31.21.21.11.1110.90.90.80.70.60.60.70.80.91.11.21.31.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.