Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday May 23, 2019 9:58 AM CDT (14:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:41PMMoonset 9:47AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 938 Am Cdt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 938 Am Cdt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis..Moderate to strong southeast winds and elevated seas will persist through the forecast. Surface high pressure anchored over the gulf of mexico will combine with a series of surface low pressure areas moving across the southern plains to support a strong pressure gradient and the related higher winds and wave heights.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 231147 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
647 am cdt Thu may 23 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Ir satl imagery continues to show a ragged area of
MVFRVFR ceilings around the rgv. The strengthening s-se low level
flow will likely help mix out the lower ceilings to allowVFR
conditions to prevail throughout much of the daylight hours.

Enough low level moisture will reside in the atms to allow for
another round of some MVFR ceilings tonight through sunrise
fri.

Prev discussion issued 411 am cdt Thu may 23 2019

Hot hazy breezy weather to continue until further notice
Short term (today through Friday):
short term (now through Friday): the 500 mb ridging will remain
entrenched over much of the southeastern states and the gulf of
mexico through today and fri. This will maintain a pretty dry and
subsident atms over the rgv throughout the short term. The 00z bro
sounding continues to advertise a pretty high CAPE >5000 j kg. On
the negative side for conv is yesterday evenings pwat which was a
pretty dry 1.5 inches. Apparently, the short term guidance from both
the NAM and the hrrr models indicates that some type of conv was
supposed to be occurring near the lower tx coastline over the last
several hours. However the kbro radar imagery has been clear as bell
all night. So it is safe to assume that both of these models have
not initialized well on the current environment over the rgv. So
will be maintaining near zero pops throughout Fri which is more in
line with the drier GFS and ECMWF guidance.

Despite the presence of the 500 mb ridging over the region, the 1000-
500 mb thickness values apparently will drop somewhat throughout
thurs and Fri which will in turn allow the MAX temps to "cool"
slightly both days. These temps will still remain above climo for
late may. The nam GFS and ECMWF short term temp trends remain in
pretty good agreement through Fri so will maintain a general blend
of these numbers.

Since the overall MAX temps will be lowering a bit through fri, the
heat index values will remain elevated but will not reach into heat
advisory territory.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday): strong subtropical
ridge parked over the northern gulf states will continue to extend
through the east half of texas Friday night through Sunday before
being slightly flattened Monday and Tuesday, then nudged a tad
east (over the southeast u.S. And florida) by Wednesday as pieces
of upper level energy ride from the southern central plains
through the mid-mississippi valley. Regardless of what's happening
aloft... Only subtle changes in sensible weather will be noted
across the rio grande valley and ranchlands through the period.

For the weekend, pockets of very dry air should leave mainly clear
skies by day and probably most of the night as well, though the
usual periods of low clouds can be expected amidst the moon and
stars that show through them. The drier air will mix down and help
lower humidity a smidge each afternoon for the weekend, and
probably Monday as well - keeping apparent temperatures (heat
index) in the 100 to 104 range area wide despite high temperatures
ranging from 94 to 99. In addition, the drier air may help remove
some of the haze and slightly improve air quality... Though low
end moderate conditions are still a good bet from continued low
level flow originating over agricultural burns in central america
and eastern mexico.

The slight breakdown flattening upper ridge Tuesday and Wednesday
will increase thicknesses and low level temperatures, as well as
return a few degrees on dewpoints. This will both increase high
temperatures toward the upper 90s in most areas... Century mark
along the rio grande in starr and zapata... And produce heat index
values that will likely reach 105-108 once again.

Models do show some deeper layer moisture in the whole by
Wednesday, but the details still favor no rain chances as solid
layer (mainly 800 to 400 mb) continues to feature humidity at or
below 25 percent. Thus... No mentionable rain in this forecast.

Otherwise... The persistent "valley wind machine" GOES on and on.

With slightly lower winds at night than in recent days along with
the expectation of more of a partly cloudy mostly clear situation
overnight, expect lows to drop into the mid to upper 70s (vs.

Upper 70s to lower 80s of recent days) over the weekend into
Monday. That may change for Tuesday and Wednesday morning with
lows at or above 80 possible... But capped at 79 in urban areas and
toward the coast for now. Some increase in low level moisture will
return a few more clouds but may also bring the haze and moderate
to potentially unhealthy for sensitive groups air quality by the
end of the period.

Marine: (today through Friday)... Surface obs near the laguna
madre and reports from buoy020 all show the strong SE surface
winds persisting near the lower tx coastline. The latest ob from
buoy020 showed a gust up to 31 kts. The model surface pressure
fields near the lower tx coastline are pretty tightly packed so do
not expect any improvement to the bay and gulf conditions
throughout at least tonight. Will extend out the scas for both the
laguna madre and the gulf waters with this update.

(Friday night through Monday night)... The slightly lessened
gradient with the westward extending ridge, as well as a bit of a
marine layer especially nearshore due to upwelling, should keep
winds in the 15 to 20 knot range over the gulf waters by night and
laguna madre by day. At the same time, gulf seas will begin with
residual 7 foot levels so small craft advisories are likely to
persist into Saturday for the gulf. Low level wind fields pick up
Monday night especially over the gulf, so advisories are likely
once again and seas will follow at the end of the period or
beyond. Overall... Not the greatest boating or fishing forecast
despite the lack of rain in the forecast.

Climate... The oppressive may heat has folks wondering where the
month ranks on the all-time (since records have been kept) list.

While afternoon highs have poked a couple degrees above average,
the sultry nights have been the difference maker, with many
minimum temperatures 7 or more degrees above average during this
stretch. For the total average temperature, the following
statistics are available:
through may 22 (preliminary):
brownsville (since 1878)...

2nd all time (83.1 degrees). Record: 84.0 degrees in 2003.

Mcallen (since 1941)...

8th all time (83.6 degrees). Record: 86.3 degrees in 2003.

Harlingen (since 1912)...

5th all time (82.7 degrees). Record: 85.0 degrees in 2003.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for winds until 7 pm cdt this evening for
gmz130-132-135.

Small craft advisory until 6 am cdt Friday for gmz150-155-170-
175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
short term aviation... 60
long term... 52
graphics upper air... 67


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi46 min SSE 13 G 18 83°F 81°F1013.2 hPa
BZST2 23 mi46 min SSE 9.9 G 13
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi52 min SSE 13 G 15 80°F 1013.4 hPa
RLIT2 29 mi46 min SE 13 G 17 84°F 81°F1013.1 hPa
PMNT2 47 mi46 min 83°F 83°F1013.1 hPa
42045 - PI-745 TABS K 59 mi148 min SE 16 G 19 78°F 79°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi65 minSSE 1110.00 miOvercast85°F79°F82%1012.6 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi65 minSSE 157.00 miOvercast84°F75°F77%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:34 AM CDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:49 AM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.60.91.11.21.21.31.21.21.11.1110.90.70.60.40.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM CDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:45 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:09 AM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.2-0.200.20.50.811.21.41.41.51.51.41.41.31.21.110.90.70.50.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.