Sunrise 6:51 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 12:43 AM   Moonset 11:19 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 957 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft should exercise caution until midnight - .
Rest of tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Thursday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Choppy on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.

GMZ100 957 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis - Briefly gusty east winds associated with an outflow boundary that crossed the coast just after Sunset will diminish by midnight. Otherwise, high pressure extending southwest from east texas and louisiana will maintain moderate east winds and moderate seas through Tuesday. The ridge will relocate across the eastern gulf Tuesday night and Wednesday as a low pressure trough develops once again across west texas. Moderate to occasionally strong southeast flow will develop Tuesday night and continue through Thursday night. Winds will back toward the east late Friday and Saturday as a weak area of low pressure slides into northeast mexico.

FXUS64 KBRO 300543 AAC AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 958 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Pronounced outflow that tracked across the Lower Texas Gulf waters earlier this evening...and was well defined on satellite...continued to surge inland across the lower Valley through Kenedy county between 8 and 9 pm..leaving a period of gusty east winds up to 35 mph in its wake. A few sprinkles joined the party as well...but no rain of significance. Updated the wind forecast to account on land through midnight in these areas.

Similar conditions surged across the nearshore waters and Laguna Madre where gusts to 30 knots likely kicked up a period of rough waves in Laguna Madre. Farther offshore, when the boundary passed Buoy 42002, winds briefly gusted to gale force and waves punched up to 9 feet before recently subsiding. Small Craft Advisory conditions are occurring/have occurred for a 2-3 hour period, but given the convective and relatively short lived nature of the event, decided to handle with a Marine Weather Statement for the short fuse and Small Craft Exercise Caution for the updated Coastal Waters Forecast.

Winds/waves should subside by midnight, with seas taking a little longer to drop back over the Gulf. Thunderstorms along the Nuevo Leon/Tamaulipas line, about 125 miles southwest of Brownsville as of 10 PM...should remain well south of the border region while dissipating overnight. That leaves the potential for a few light showers on the residual easterly flow in the Gulf and perhaps into Cameron/Willacy/Kenedy overnight...with little notable impact.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the Northern Ranchlands.

- A high risk of rip currents along the Lower Texas beaches through Tuesday evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue across Deep South Texas.

The short term period will feature low precipitation chances, partly to mostly cloudy skies, and above normal temperatures across all of Deep South Texas. Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow across the region has maintained warm and humid conditions. The 12Z BRO sounding indicated precipitable water values (PWATs) around 1.5 inches this morning, and GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water satellite imagery measures PWATs ranging from 1.55 to 1.65 inches across Deep South Texas. Meanwhile, a weak boundary north of the region will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon and into tonight.

High res guidance indicates the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, modest instability, and sufficient bulk shear values to support the development of isolated severe thunderstorms with primarily a hail and damaging wind gust threat, but lack of large scale forcing will limit this potential. If any severe thunderstorms were to develop, the best timing would be late this afternoon and overnight, mainly over the Northern Ranchlands.
However, convective allowing models continue to indicate a mostly rain/storm-free afternoon and overnight period, with mainly warm air advection showers developing overnight across portions of Deep South Texas and the Gulf waters. Isolated to scattered showers may continue throughout the day on Tuesday, with the development of isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoon hours as instability increases. Isolated thunderstorms may develop off of the Sierra Madre, but should dissipate before reaching the region late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, a mild and overcast night is expected tonight and Tuesday night with lows in the 70s.
Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s along the Lower Texas beaches to mid 90s across the Northern Ranchlands.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Daily low (20-30%) precipitation chances for portions of Deep South Texas continue through the end of the week.

- Above normal temperatures persist through the weekend.

Breezy winds will return across Deep South Texas by the start of the long term period as the pressure gradient tightens in response to an upper level trough digging into the Rockies. Sustained winds around 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH are likely on Wednesday, with similar wind speeds expected on Thursday as the trough and attendant surface features track across the Northern Plains. As low level southerly to southeasterly flow continues to transport rich Gulf moisture northward and results in increasing PWATs, weak disturbances embedded within westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will result in daily low precipitation chances. The aforementioned trough will send a cold front southward by the end of the week, but model guidance continues to struggle with the timing of the front and the southward extent before stalling.

Unfortunately, this will leave us with above normal temperatures and humid conditions through the weekend with highs ranging from the low 80s across the Lower Texas beaches to the mid 90s across the Northern Ranchlands and lows in the 70s. With the steady increase of low-level moisture and temperatures, we'll have to keep an eye on heat index values mid week. The latest guidance indicates heat indices will approach 100-106 degrees across most of the region, including the Mid/Upper Valley and the Northern Ranchlands, Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

NWS Radar is showing scattered small light showers increasing along and east-southeast of the lower Texas coast and NE Mexico.
These showers are steadily moving northwest with the general southeast low level winds. Besides a passing shower overnight and through Tuesday morning IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected. Models suggest ceiling to rise to VFR by or shortly after 17-18Z. VFR persist through the afternoon with the marine layer moving inland shortly after sunset with ceilings lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR before midnight. Light to moderate southeast winds persist through the period with occasional gusts 18-22kts.



MARINE
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night...Light to moderate east to southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail through the period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight into Tuesday, which may result in higher winds and seas.

Wednesday through Sunday night...A tightening pressure gradient will result in increased wind speeds on Wednesday, which may approach Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions beginning late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Wave heights will respond and may reach 7-8 feet by Thursday.
Conditions should improve heading into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 88 77 90 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 74 91 75 92 / 0 10 10 10 MCALLEN 77 92 77 93 / 0 10 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 93 76 95 / 0 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 81 76 82 / 10 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 87 75 88 / 10 10 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.

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Matamoros
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Mon -- 12:02 AM CST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:14 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:07 AM CST     1.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

Port Isabel
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Mon -- 12:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:20 AM CDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:12 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:11 PM CDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas (2), Tide feet

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