Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:40PM Monday November 19, 2018 9:14 AM CST (15:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 3:16AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 417 Am Cst Mon Nov 19 2018
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of rain.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy after midnight. Chance of rain.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Slight chance of rain.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Rain showers likely.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. A light chop on the bay subsiding to smooth after midnight. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..Northwest winds around 5 knots increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay building to a light chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. A light chop on the bay subsiding to smooth after midnight.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 417 Am Cst Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will move east of the lower texas gulf waters this morning. Moderate north winds and elevated seas are expected on the gulf waters today with winds slightly increasing tonight into Tuesday. Marine conditions improve Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds into the northwest gulf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 191141 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
541 am cst Mon nov 19 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Light drizzle and patchy fog continues across deep
south texas early this morning. Generally lifr ifr conditions are
expected through the period. Northwest to north winds will
continue for the next 24 hours.

Prev discussion issued 421 am cst Mon nov 19 2018
short term (today through Tuesday): the cold front continues to move
southeast across the lower texas gulf waters this morning. Weak
surface troughing lingering behind the front should support cloudy
skies and light rain or drizzle across deep south texas today. Total
accumulation will remain light. Near steady temperatures, generally
in the 50s, are expected areawide today due to strong cold air
advection. The front slowly pushes further into the gulf tonight
with the best rain chances shifting offshore. Low temperatures
tonight will remain in the 50s as cloudy skies continue. Surface
high pressure builds into the region on Tuesday. High temperatures
on Tuesday are expected to reach the low to mid 60s under mostly
cloudy skies.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday): drier air will filter
into the region late tues from the north reducing the conv chcs
down a bit. This break in the cloudy and wet conditions will be
brief as a fast moving 500 mb short wave will move quickly east
from the desert sw. This trough is expected to move into central
tx on Wed which will result in another round of increased moisture
levels and pops Wed and Wed night. Yet another fast moving 500 mb
short wave will move out of the desert SW late thurs pushing into
tx on fri. This trough will maintain some lingering pops across
the region late this week. After this 2nd trough axis clears the
region a much drier westerly to northwesterly flow aloft will
build into the region dropping down the pcpn chcs and allowing the
temps to warm up for Fri Sat and Sun as a larger 500 mb closed low
builds into the central plains states.

Since the 500 mb pattern over the lower 48 states is pretty
progressive from west to east in the longer range period, the
colder air will remain confined more to the north of the rgv. This
will allow the temps to moderate pretty steadily throughout the
week with high temps warming up into the upper 70s to lower 80s by
the end of the week.

The ECMWF and GFS guidance through day 7 8 is in pretty reasonable
agreement with the ECMWF showing a slightly wetter and cooler bias
for Wed thur. Run to run consistency with both models is pretty
stable. So will go with a general model blend for both temps and
pops throughout the longer range.

Forecast confidence is above average for the long term period due
to the decent model agreement and good run to run consistency.

Marine (now through Tuesday): moderate winds and elevated seas will
continue along the lower texas coast through the period. Small craft
should exercise caution today on the gulf waters as seas continue to
build in the wake of the cold front. There may be a brief period
late tonight into Tuesday morning where northerly winds may reach 20
knots and seas of 7 feet on the gulf waters. However, that period
should be short-lived as the pressure gradient weakens as high
pressure settles across the northwest gulf.

Tuesday night through Friday night: the overall low level flow
over the lower tx coastline will be light to moderate from the ne
as surface ridging spreads over the SE u.S. The pgf will
strengthen up enough around midweek due to some building surface
troffing along the coastline to potentially push the gulf
conditions up close to scec borderline SCA levels offshore. The
pgf then weakens Fri allowing the winds and seas to diminish.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
63


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi44 min NNW 12 G 17 54°F 67°F1019.5 hPa
BZST2 23 mi44 min NNW 16 G 19 55°F 67°F1018.8 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi44 min NW 16 G 23 56°F 1019.8 hPa
RLIT2 29 mi44 min NW 12 G 15 55°F 63°F1020 hPa
PMNT2 47 mi44 min 53°F 64°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi21 minNNW 107.00 miOvercast54°F54°F100%1020.4 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi81 minNW 138.00 mi0°F0°F%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7E6E7E8E6E6E8E4SE7E5E5SE5SW3NW7NW9N7NW9N9N5NW8NW10NW9N10
1 day agoSE9
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SE11SE10SE15SE7SE7SE8SE8SE11SE10SE9E4SE5SE4E5E7E5SE3SE4SE4SE5
2 days agoCalmSE55E7
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E9SE9E9E7E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E3E3E3E5E5E4S7

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:02 AM CST     1.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:15 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:43 AM CST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:50 PM CST     1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:37 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:47 PM CST     0.95 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.21.110.80.70.60.60.60.70.911.11.21.21.21.1110.9111.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas (2)
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:00 AM CST     1.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:14 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM CST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:58 PM CST     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:36 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:38 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:26 PM CST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.31.210.80.60.60.60.70.80.911.11.21.21.10.90.80.80.90.911.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.