Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 9:27 AM   Moonset 11:49 PM

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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 400 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Tonight - E se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds and N ne 2 ft at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Mon - E se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds and N ne 2 ft at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 4 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers. Tue - S se winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S se 3 ft at 5 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - S se winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S se 3 ft at 5 seconds and N 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Thu - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 400 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis -
moderate northerly breeze this morning will become easterly later today through Monday. Cautionary conditions return late Monday through mid week as the flow becomes more southerly and the pressure gradient tightens across the area.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 11, 2024 at 12 utc - .
1 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 121119 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 719 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024


NEW AVIATION


SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A weakening cold front has moved into South Florida on this Mother's Day morning. While lacking much support to mean much in terms of cooler temperatures or wetting rainfall, the front could bring some increase cloud cover initially to start the morning. As a low over the central plains advances today, the front will retreat back northward returning southern Florida back into a hot air mass for Monday and Tuesday.

The lack of deeper moisture and support aloft for widespread convection will mean that the only relief from the heat could be the potential for some sea breeze showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) to develop with peak heating in the afternoons and evenings over the interior spine of the peninsula. The temperatures will continue to be in the 90s across much of the area early in the week except for sea breeze cooled areas along the coast. Triple digit heat index values, particularly by Monday afternoon, point towards a developing heat illness threat for the week.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A mid-level low will attempt to cut off from the mean flow aloft mid to late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold front will attempt to pinch the high pressure over much of the peninsula of Florida south and east by late week but will not have enough support to reach southern Florida. Accordingly, South Florida will see an increase in low level moisture but will lack the convective relief or change in airmass to help moderate temperatures.

A window for hazardous heat could open by Wednesday that could linger through the end of the week. Going beyond triple digit heat index values, much of southern Florida could experience heat necessitating either a Heat Advisory or potentially Excessive Heat Warnings. Of particular concern mid to late week is that overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By next weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states but not every solution shows a southward advancement of the associated front. Therefore the forecast uncertainty increases late Friday into Saturday. If the high persists over South Florida, then likely will the heat. If the front is able to reach the area, there could be some brief relief from the heat.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Continuing SCT MVFR ceilings still possible this morning at APF, then SCT MVFR ceilings possible this afternoon over the Atlantic terminals. Winds continue to veer NNE this morning, then E by 18Z.
Speeds will increase into the 10-15 kts with higher gusts. APF will again see a westerly Gulf breeze this afternoon. Winds wane to 5-10 kts tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Winds will shift northerly this morning as a decaying cold front moves across the waters. There might be enough lingering moisture for additional showers to develop today, mainly over the Atlantic waters. The high building back in for much of the week should lower rain chances for the most part of the waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

There will be an elevated risk for rip currents today for the Palm Beaches. The risk for rip currents will further increase for all of the Atlantic beaches on Monday as easterly flow strengthens.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place with minimum relative humidity values around 30 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 90 77 88 80 / 10 10 20 10 West Kendall 92 75 90 77 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 91 76 90 78 / 10 10 20 10 Homestead 91 77 88 79 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 88 77 86 79 / 10 10 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 87 77 87 79 / 10 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 91 77 91 79 / 10 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 87 75 87 77 / 10 10 30 10 Boca Raton 87 76 88 78 / 10 10 30 20 Naples 90 75 92 78 / 10 10 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Bakers Haulover Inlet (inside)
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Sun -- 01:19 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:25 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bakers Haulover Inlet (inside), Florida, Tide feet

Miami Harbor Entrance
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Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:08 AM EDT     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:51 AM EDT     1.59 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:58 PM EDT     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:24 PM EDT     1.85 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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