Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:44 PM   Moonset 3:38 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of tonight - N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - NE winds 5 kt becoming W nw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - NEarshore, N winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E ne after midnight. Offshore, N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: N nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms through the night. Wed - NEarshore, E winds 5 kt becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Offshore, E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: W nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - E winds around 5 kt nearshore and E 5 to 10 kt offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: E se 1 foot at 2 seconds and nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: E 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Thu night - S winds around 5 kt becoming E se late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. Fri - SE winds 5 kt becoming S sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Fri night - S sw winds around 5 kt becoming se 5 kt late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. Sat - S winds 5 kt becoming sw around 5 kt in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - S sw winds 5 kt becoming E se late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.

GMZ600 405 Pm Cdt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis - Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week.

FXUS62 KMFL 210027 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 827 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 814 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Most active weather was observed over central and eastern Broward county this afternoon, with some reports of wind gusts over 60 mph in a couple of locations. Yet, the majority of SoFlo remained dry, and with afternoon temps again climbing into the 90s where there was no rain/cloud cover. Skies have been fairly quick in clearing out as the remnants from previous storms are now well offshore over the Atlantic. A few evening showers or an isolated storm is still possible, mainly around the Lake area, but should be brief, with very low chances of strong convection happening through 10pm.

Lows tonight will cool down a bit more over the Lake region with temps down to the mid-upper 60s, around 70s, and low-mid 70s elsewhere. Although locations immediately adjacent to the Atlantic coast could remain in the upper 70s or even 80.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity once again today as a diffuse front remains draped over the area, with a weak surface low just east of the peninsula. The 12Z sounding today showed ample instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze boundary over the East Coast. However, lack of upper level dynamics and weaker shear/lapse rates parameters (as compared to yesterday) will help reduce the chances for severe impacts, with only a few isolated stronger storms potentially producing gusty winds and small hail.

Temperatures will remain above average as westerly/southwesterly winds prevail across the area this afternoon, but lower dew points today compared to the last couple of days should help keep heat index values at or below 100 degrees.

The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

By the mid-week, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. The 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will be possible, but we cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern.

This benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea-breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR is now returning to the terminals, and should prevail through around 15-16Z. Sub-VFR conditions may be possible for the East Coast terminals after 17Z, but confidence is low attm to include mention of TS. Light and variable winds overnight will shift to a more easterly wind around 10kt in the late morning and afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and tomorrow as a diffuse front gradually moves across the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as high pressure builds over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 76 88 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 West Kendall 73 90 73 90 / 20 50 40 50 Opa-Locka 75 89 75 90 / 30 50 40 50 Homestead 75 89 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 75 87 76 86 / 30 50 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 74 87 75 87 / 40 40 40 50 Pembroke Pines 75 91 76 91 / 30 40 40 50 West Palm Beach 73 87 73 87 / 30 40 40 40 Boca Raton 74 88 75 88 / 30 40 40 50 Naples 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Marco
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Mon -- 12:34 AM EDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:35 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

Pumpkin Bay
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Mon -- 02:03 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:48 AM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:37 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pumpkin Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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