Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aventura, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:53PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:43 PM EDT (18:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:35AMMoonset 5:20PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 1025 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, with a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms through the day. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to east southeast 15 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday and Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to east 15 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1025 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis..Light to moderate east-southeast flow will continue over the local south florida waters through most of today, increasing late this evening as a tropical wave moves through the region. A second tropical wave approaching the region will keep winds elevated through Monday, with the potential for cautionary conditions at times over the local waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected over the local waters today, becoming more numerous late tonight and through much of next week as the unsettled pattern continues.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 19, 2017 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 15 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 11 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 12 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aventura, FL
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location: 25.95, -80.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 191751
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
151 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Aviation
Generally dry day, as the sea breeze has pushed past the east
coast terminals. Another round of showers and storms is possible
over the interior and near apf this afternoon and evening.

Overnight, an approaching tropical disturbance will bring
increasing convection from east to west with easterly wind through
the period except for the gulf sea breeze at apf and gusty
variability around convection.

Prev discussion issued 1119 am edt Sat aug 19 2017
update...

this morning's soundings continue to demonstrate a substantial
amount of dry air over the region as an upper level low moves
across. The air aloft is slightly warmer than it was yesterday,
yielding slightly less steep lapse rates. However, strong storms
capable of producing gusty winds cannot be ruled today along
boundary collisions. The southwest florida area where the gulf sea
breeze meets the atlantic sea breeze is the most likely to see a
strong storm or two later today into this evening. Dcape value on
this morning's mfl sounding is hovering above 900 j kg, with the
tbw and key soundings carrying dcape values above 1200 j kg. These
dcape values are quite respectable and signal the potential for
downbursts from storms today that could produce strong to damaging
wind gusts up to 45 to 55 mph or so. This dry trend will begin to
decrease tonight as moist air filters in with the back end of the
low. The current forecast continues to show all of these details
well and no updates are anticipated besides the minor tweaks
completed to the hourly grids this morning based off observed
trends. Have a great Saturday!
prev discussion... Issued 405 am edt Sat aug 19 2017
discussion...

today through Sunday: satellite shows the western atlantic ridge
has been a little slower to build west, which in turn has slowed
the westward progress of the upper level low across the fl straits
and the tropical wave over the bahamas. The result being the
drier airmass will linger through most of the day across south
florida as we will remain on the subsident side of the tropical
wave. Convective coverage today should be similar to Friday.

Steering flow will be more southerly than yesterday, as we get on
the back side of the upper level low. This may allow a few more
storms to develop on the west side of the atlantic metro early in
the afternoon as the seabreeze gets going. Coverage is still
expected to favor the gulf coast with a late day seabreeze
collision, with the threat for strong and gusty storms lingering
due to the drier air and cooler temperatures aloft.

The tropical wave axis looks to cross the area late tonight,
bringing a steady increase in rain chances from east to west by
daybreak Sunday. Best chances look to be along the east coast in
the morning, then shifting westwards with time as the wave
continues marching west. Tropical airmass with warmer midlevel
temps suggest this activity will be in the form of rain with
embedded storms, with a limited, if any, strong storm threat.

The threat for a few periods of heavy rainfall remain, especially
along the east coast where the breezy east-southeast flow may
enhance coastal convergence and rainfall amounts. Showers and
storms will then wane from east to west late on Sunday, though
isolated activity may linger into the night.

Monday through Wednesday: while there will continue to be run to
run changes in the details for each day, the forecast for the
upcoming week continues to be for a wet and unsettled pattern.

Subsidence and dry air in the wake of the departing upper level low
and tropical wave will make Monday the driest day of the week.

Coverage of afternoon showers and storms will be near, or even a
little below normal. Given the brisk east-southeast flow pattern,
expect scattered showers and storms to move in from the atlantic and
across the peninsula through the day.

The tropical disturbance located 500 miles east-northeast of the
leeward island (invest 92l) has become less organized in the past 24
hours. The chances for tropical cyclone formation appear to be
decreasing with this system and conditions are only expected to be
marginally favorable for further development. As of 2 am, NHC now
gives this feature a 30% 40% chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone in 2 days and 5 days respectively as it continues moving
west- northwest north of the greater antilles and through the
bahamas early next week. The current forecast have it moving
through south florida cuba tues and wed.

Models have trended towards a more robust drying on Monday, and a
slower arrival of the deeper tropical moisture on Tuesday along with
lighter winds. This looks to shift the heavy rain threat a little
later in time, more Tuesday night and Wednesday. However we will
need to remain on ALERT as this setup, tropical moisture with a
modest east- southeast flow, can raise flooding concerns across
the area, especially along the east coast. All residents and
visitors or south florida need to continue to monitor this
tropical disturbance through the weekend.

Late next week: upper level trough digging into the eastern us will
weaken the ridge late week, allowing another unseasonable frontal
boundary to move into the state. With flow shifting out of the south-
southwest at all levels, tropical moisture will continue to be
advected across the region toward the boundary, resulting in a
continued rainy pattern that lasts through the week.

Marine... East-southeast winds will prevail for the weekend and
through most of the upcoming week, gradually becoming more
southerly by late next week. Marine concerns over the next few days
will be the increasing winds and storm chances as we see two
tropical waves cross the region.

The first will arrive late tonight into Sunday, with speeds
increasing to 10-15kts overnight, and 15-20kts Sunday night into
Monday, especially over the atlantic. There won't be too much of a
lull in speeds before the second wave arrives early on Tuesday,
reinforcing the pressure gradient. Speeds look to diminish behind
this wave to 10-15kts for mid to late next week. Seas remain 2ft
or less today, building to 3-4ft on Sunday with occasional 5ft in
the atlantic on Monday.

Coverage of showers and storms is expected to increase from east to
west later today as the tropical wave approaches. Rain chances over
the open waters will be more scattered on Monday, before increasing
again with the next wave midweek.

There will be an increasing threat of rip currents this weekend
along the east coast beaches of south florida, due to the
stronger easterly wind flow.

Climate... Miami tied its record high of 95 on Friday, last set in
1995.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 79 90 82 93 50 70 20 30
fort lauderdale 80 90 82 92 50 60 20 30
miami 80 91 81 93 50 60 20 30
naples 77 93 77 96 20 50 30 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 02 rag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 10 mi43 min ENE 8.9 G 12 86°F 1015.4 hPa (-1.0)75°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 15 mi43 min NNE 6 G 9.9 87°F 91°F1014.8 hPa (-1.0)
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 25 mi43 min NE 9.9 G 12 85°F 87°F1015.7 hPa (-1.1)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi43 min ENE 6 G 8.9

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi50 minE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds94°F73°F51%1015.5 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL8 mi50 minENE 610.00 miA Few Clouds93°F71°F49%1015.3 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL8 mi50 minE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F77°F66%1015 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL12 mi50 minE 7 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy92°F70°F49%1015.1 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL17 mi50 minE 13 G 1710.00 miFair91°F75°F61%1015.4 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL21 mi50 minE 910.00 miFair91°F75°F59%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11SE11E11E12SE10
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SE12E9E7CalmCalmCalmNW6CalmCalmE4N5NE3CalmNW4CalmNE5E10E11E9
1 day agoE9E10
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SE9----E6E3E4SE6E4CalmE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3E3Calm3E6E9
2 days ago--SW6E6E7E7E7SE6SE5SE3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4N5N6E7E7SE9
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.60.30.20.511.62.12.42.321.50.90.4-0-0.2-0.10.41.11.82.42.62.42

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT     1.94 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:06 PM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:10 PM EDT     2.35 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-1.1-0.11.11.71.91.91.30.2-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.8-1.6-0.60.71.72.12.32.11.1-0.1-0.9-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.