Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aventura, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:32PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 3:35 AM EDT (07:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:16PMMoonset 5:33AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 936 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Along the coast, seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. In the gulf stream, seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet after midnight. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Numerous showers late in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet along the coast and 7 to 9 feet with occasional to 11 feet in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots along the coast to northeast 15 to 25 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to north northeast 15 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Scattered showers.
Wednesday night..North northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 936 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis.. Hazardous boating conditions are developing across gulf and atlantic waters, as northerly wind will increase to 20 to 30 knots overnight and remain at similar speeds Tuesday and Tuesday night (while veering northeasterly). Seas in gulf waters will build to 6 to 8 feet, with atlantic seas increasing to 8 to 10 feet, higher in the gulf stream. A small craft advisory is in effect for gulf waters into Tuesday night and for atlantic waters through Wednesday, as high seas may continue in the atlantic through at least Wednesday. Widespread rain is expected into Tuesday night, with isolated Thunderstorms along with waterspouts possible in atlantic waters during this time.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas increasing to 7 to 9 feet tonight and 9 to 11 feet Tuesday, highest off palm beach county. Northeast wind of 20 to 30 knots, with gusts to gale force off palm beach county Tuesday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of mar 16, 2019 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 14 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 14 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aventura, FL
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location: 25.95, -80.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 190554
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
154 am edt Tue mar 19 2019

Aviation
Prevailing MVFR CIGS across most terminals with possible ifr cigs
developing between 09-12z Tuesday morning due to widespread rain.

Cigs may drop to around 008 agl around this time. Also looking
for reduced vis in heavier rounds of showers and rain. Rain activity
looks to simmer down overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning,
bumping conditions back toVFR. Otherwise, breezy nne to NE winds
with gusts in the 20-25 kt range will prevail throughout the day
today before quieting down overnight. Thunderstorms are not
mentioned at this time due to low confidence.

Prev discussion issued 858 pm edt Mon mar 18 2019
update...

coastal convergence and its development of locally heavy
rainshowers is the main concern for tonight. Guidance continues to
suggest a band within about 20 miles of the atlantic coast setting
up where some heavy rainfall will occur. Where along the coast the
activity is heaviest and whether or not the line remains offshore
are two big uncertainties, and details of this are still not able
to be refined at this time. The more widespread light to moderate
rain associated with isentropic lift will likely not start until
toward dawn, but the banding along the east coast could initiate
as early as midnight. Have adjusted pops down for the next several
hours as radar returns are relatively sparse, otherwise no change
in the overnight forecast.

Prev discussion... Issued 416 pm edt Mon mar 18 2019
discussion...

short term (tonight through Wednesday night)
with the cold front having stalled south of the region and the
much advertised shortwave trough remaining over the central gulf
today, an overcast yet dry day has ensued, with temperatures
getting a bit warmer than anticipated with the lack of rainfall.

Temperatures have peaked in the mid 70s to low 80s across the
region, despite being on the cool side of the boundary. Overall
synoptic setup remains unchanged from previous forecasts. Potent
shortwave trough and subtropical jet MAX will approach the region
tonight and cross south florida on Tuesday. This alone will
provide plenty of isentropic lift to support widespread moderate
showers across the region from late tonight through Tuesday
afternoon. Some heavy rain is possible with the aforementioned
features, but the most likely culprits for heavy rain will likely
come from two additional features. The first of these features
will be mesoscale in nature, thus there is inherent uncertainty in
timing and location of the heavy rain potential. Coastal
convergence may set up overnight in the vicinity of the the
atlantic coast, as marine flow turns more northeasterly and
enhances, while land flow continues with a cool advection north-
northwest regime. With pwats approaching 2 inches, this zone of
convergence could support locally quite heavy rainfall, and
various models have 4-6 inch bullseyes of precipitation forecast
overnight along the east coast, or adjacent waters. This should
mainly occur after 6z, and if this zone sets up over the waters,
significant rainfall could remain over the atlantic and not impact
the region. Still, wpc has highlight the east coast urban areas in
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall flooding. Mesoscale trends
will be closely monitored overnight.

The second feature that could lead to heavy rainfall is the
surface low that is expected to form along the nearly stationary
boundary over the keys in response to the shortwave trough. The
low track is forecast to remain south of the region, but if it
comes close enough, more widespread heavier showers may impact
southeastern parts of the area. This possible scenario could lead
to a few elevated thunderstorms as well.

Regardless of whether or not either heavy rain scenario holds
true, the widespread isentropic lift induced rainfall should
produce 1 to 3 inches across the region by Tuesday night.

Temperatures Tuesday will be cool due to the widespread rainfall,
with some areas likely not reaching 70 degrees. Upper level
support and moisture scour away on Wednesday, but low-level
moisture and northeast flow will prevail, potentially keeping
scattered to numerous showers ongoing along the atlantic coast.

Temperatures will rebound somewhat, but still be a bit below
normal for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maxima will mainly be in
the 70s with minima in the 50s interior, low to mid 60s across the
east coast urban areas.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
rain chances decrease on Thursday and for the remainder of the
forecast period as a another weak, dry frontal passage helps to
clear out the deeper moisture well to our south. Rainfall will
remain mostly along the atlantic and east coast until the front
clears. Thereafter, high pressure returns, allowing cooler and
drier air to filter in across the peninsula.

Marine...

hazardous boating conditions are developing this afternoon across
gulf and atlantic waters, as northerly wind will increase to 20 to
30 knots overnight and remain at similar speeds Tuesday and
Tuesday night (while veering northeasterly). Seas in gulf waters
will build to 6 to 8 feet, with atlantic seas increasing to 8 to
10 feet, higher in the gulf stream. A small craft advisory is in
effect for gulf waters into Tuesday night and for atlantic waters
through Wednesday, as high seas may continue in the atlantic
through at least Wednesday. Widespread rain is expected into
Tuesday night, with isolated thunderstorms along with waterspouts
possible in atlantic waters during this time.

Beach forecast...

due to forecast northeast wind of 20 to 30 mph, there is a high
risk of rip currents on atlantic beaches for Tuesday and Tuesday
night. This high risk will likely continue through at least
Thursday.

Hydrology...

widespread rainfall amounts from late tonight through Tuesday
night should average 1 to 2 inches across south florida, with 2 to
4 inches likely across the east coast metropolitan areas. Amounts
of this magnitude spread over 6 or more hours should not cause
significant flooding issues beyond urban street ponding, as
antecedent conditions are quite dry. However, localized much
higher amounts are possible, especially near the atlantic coast,
are possible, and these amounts, if they occur within a few hours,
may cause flooding. Wpc has placed the east coast urban areas in
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall flooding for tonight and
Tuesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 70 63 77 62 90 60 40 20
fort lauderdale 71 65 78 65 90 60 40 20
miami 72 65 79 65 80 60 40 10
naples 70 60 79 59 80 50 10 0

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk from 8 am edt this morning through
Wednesday morning for flz168-172-173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for amz650-651-670-
671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for gmz656-657-676.

Update... 23 sbk
discussion... 23 sbk
marine... 23 sbk
aviation... 03 fell
beach forecast... 23 sbk
hydrology... 23 sbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 9 mi42 min NNW 13 G 20 70°F 1016 hPa
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 15 mi42 min NW 4.1 G 8.9 70°F 78°F1015 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 25 mi36 min NNW 11 G 12 71°F 77°F1016.3 hPa (-0.9)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi42 min NNE 27 G 31 69°F 77°F1017.5 hPa
MDKF1 48 mi156 min 79°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi43 minN 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast70°F64°F84%1016.4 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL8 mi43 minN 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist70°F66°F87%1015.8 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL8 mi43 minN 810.00 miOvercast70°F64°F84%1016.3 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL12 mi43 minN 88.00 miOvercast70°F66°F90%1016 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL17 mi43 minN 85.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist69°F69°F100%1016.3 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL21 mi43 minN 84.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist69°F66°F90%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N4N6N4N5N6NW6NW6NW6NW9NW7N8N8N7N8NE10NE9NE12N8N9N10N10N10N12
G18
1 day agoCalmCalmN5N3NW5N6N6CalmNW4W6W5W5SW7NW5E9NE8E6NE6NE3NE7N9N6N7N6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5S3Calm5SE84SE6SE5SE10SE8S7S5SW5W3SE9CalmCalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
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Tue -- 03:32 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:41 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.4-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.10.61.422.42.321.40.80.2-0.2-0.4-0.20.41.11.92.42.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
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Tue -- 12:32 AM EDT     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT     2.36 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:02 PM EDT     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     2.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-1.8-1.20.11.42.12.32.31.60.3-0.8-1.4-1.7-1.9-1.6-0.60.91.92.32.420.8-0.5-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.