Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aventura, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:34PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:00 PM EST (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:34PMMoonset 2:39AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 905 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening... Then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 20 to 25 knots along the coast to south 20 to 30 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet in the afternoon. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West southwest winds 20 to 25 knots along the coast to west southwest 25 to 30 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet along the coast and 7 to 9 feet with occasional to 11 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Showers with Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..West winds 20 to 30 knots along the coast to west 25 to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 8 to 10 feet with occasional to 13 feet in the gulf stream. Southwest swell 3 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Along the coast, northwest winds 15 to 25 knots, seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. In the gulf stream, west northwest winds 20 to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the morning, seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas to 13 feet subsiding to 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet after midnight. West southwest swell 3 feet. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Along the coast, north winds 10 to 15 knots. In the gulf stream, north northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet along the coast and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..North northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet along the coast and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet along the coast and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 905 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the atlantic and gulf waters as it continues to slide off to the east for the rest of tonight. Winds will then begin to shift around to the southeast on Wednesday. A warm front will move through the region Wednesday night which will increase the chances of showers and Thunderstorms and increase the winds as well. A strong system moving through the southeastern portion of the country Thursday and Friday will bring hazardous boating conditions both days, likely lingering into the upcoming weekend. There will be the potential for gale force winds during the timeframe across all the local waters, with seas reaching in excess of 15 feet in the offshore gulf and 9 to 12ft in the offshore atlantic.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas building to 7 feet on Thursday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 18, 2018 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 5 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aventura, FL
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location: 25.95, -80.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 190005
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
705 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Update
No changes needed to be made to the previous forecast as
everything looks on track. An area of high pressure will continue
to slide off to the east tonight and it will shift the winds
around to a more east to southeasterly direction during the
overnight hours. Low temperatures tonight will not be as cool as
they have been in recent nights as they will drop down into the
lower 50s across the interior sections to the mid 60s across the
east coast metro areas. Lower level moisture will begin to
increase on Wednesday and the chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will increase later in the day and then again on
Wednesday night as a warm front approaches the region from the
south.

Prev discussion issued 653 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
aviation...

light and variable flow prevails tonight over at all terminals,
becoming SE around 10kt after 15z. The ceiling and vis will also
remain inVFR conditions at all of the TAF sites through most of
the forecast period.

Prev discussion... Issued 357 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
discussion...

an area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern across south florida for tonight as it continues to slide
off to the east. Winds will continue to shift to a more east to
southeasterly direction as the night progresses. This will allow
for temperatures tonight to be not as cool as they have been over
the previous two nights. Low temperatures tonight will drop into
the lower 50s across the northwestern interior sections to the mid
60s across the east coast metro areas.

As far as Wednesday and Thursday are concerned, the latest model
guidance continues to show a stormy and unsettled weather pattern
taking place as a major system develops across the southeastern
portion of the country. The southern upper level shortwave
currently over the southwestern portion of the country will phase
with a northern shortwave which will form a deep trough as it
moves into the eastern portion of the us. This will also allow for
a strong upper level low to form across the northern gulf coast
which will lead to a strong surface low lifting across the
southeast during the middle to latter portion of the week.

Low level moisture will begin to increase later on Wednesday and
on Wednesday night as the previous frontal boundary will begin to
move northward as a warm front. This will help to increase the
instability across the region as dewpoints will climb back into
the upper 60s and lower 70s. The chances of showers and an
isolated thunderstorm will increase later on Wednesday and
Wednesday night especially during the overnight hours. The initial
northward movement of the boundary may also bring a more favorable
environment for isolated tornado development as we see a
strengthening low level wind field and increasing low level
helicities for most of south florida on Wednesday night.

The latest computer model guidance shows most of the activity
occurring across the region on Thursday and Thursday night. The
upper level low is expected to continue to dig southward across
the gulf through the day on Thursday before starting to lift
northwards on Friday morning. This will allow for the best
dynamics to phase with the best instability farther south. This
is something that has been different with the past two fronts
where the best dynamics and instability have remained farther to
the north. Model consistency continues to be good in showing the
low level wind field strengthening to 40 to 55 kts, suggesting the
threat for damaging winds along with an isolated tornado concern
on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as what will likely be a
strong pre frontal squall line moving through the area. The latest
computer model guidance continues to lean towards the best rain
chances being towards the later portion of the afternoon and into
the overnight period. Currently all of south florida is in a
slight risk for severe weather for Thursday.

Heavy rainfall will also be a concern, with rainfall amounts
potentially in excess of two inches on Thursday, highest along
the gulf coast. Most of south florida, excluding the atlantic
metro areas, is currently under a marginal risk for flash flooding
during this timeframe. Any heavy rain will be aggravated by
higher water levels, with the potential for at least minor
extratropical surge along the gulf coast Thursday and Friday.

Ahead of any squall line, it will be a very windy day, with the
potential for wind advisory criteria to be met across the region.

The main frontal boundary looks like it will pass through south
florida on Friday. The instability will be limited during this
time frame, however, with the strong winds still remaining in
place, showers still cannot be ruled out throughout much of the
day. High pressure will then build in for the upcoming weekend and
bring a cooler and drier air mass along with it. Highs may struggle
to get into the 70s for the weekend, with chilly overnight lows
in the 40s and 50s.

Marine...

high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across
the atlantic and gulf waters as it continues to slide off to the
east tonight. Winds will then begin to shift around to the
southeast on Wednesday. A warm front will move through the region
Wednesday night which will increase the chances of showers and
thunderstorms and increase the winds as well. A strong system moving
through the southeastern portion of the country Thursday and
Friday will bring hazardous boating conditions both days, likely
lingering into the upcoming weekend. There will be the potential
for gale force winds during the timeframe across all the local
waters, with seas reaching in excess of 15 feet in the offshore
gulf and 9 to 12ft in the offshore atlantic.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 61 77 68 81 0 20 60 70
fort lauderdale 64 77 71 82 0 20 30 70
miami 62 77 69 82 0 20 30 70
naples 56 77 65 77 0 30 30 90

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 55 cwc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 9 mi36 min NNE 8.9 G 12 73°F 1017.7 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 10 mi18 min NE 8.9 G 14 74°F 1018 hPa60°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 15 mi30 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 73°F1017.7 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 25 mi60 min NNE 7 G 8 73°F 76°F1018.6 hPa (+0.5)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi30 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 76°F1019.4 hPa
MDKF1 48 mi120 min 71°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL6 mi67 minN 410.00 miFair65°F57°F78%1018.5 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL8 mi67 minN 310.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F61°F78%1018.5 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL8 mi67 minN 410.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F61°F84%1017.8 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL12 mi67 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds68°F63°F84%1018.3 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL17 mi67 minN 310.00 miFair66°F61°F84%1018.3 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL21 mi67 minN 310.00 miFair64°F57°F81%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from HWO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W4CalmW5W5NW4W3NW5CalmN3N5N5NW3CalmCalmCalmE5E7E7E5CalmN3N4N3
1 day agoNW6NW7NW7NW10NW10NW8NW9NW6NW7NW9NW8NW10NW11NW11NW9NW10NW10NW10NW9NW8N9NW7NW3W3
2 days agoCalmNW5W4CalmW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW3NW4W7NW6NW7W6W10W7W5NW4NW4W4W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
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Tue -- 12:06 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:00 AM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:35 PM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:05 PM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.71.21.722.121.81.41.10.80.60.60.81.21.622.121.81.40.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
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Tue -- 02:06 AM EST     1.66 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:57 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EST     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:21 PM EST     1.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:02 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:43 PM EST     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.41.71.61.50.9-0-0.7-0.9-1-1-0.8-00.91.51.41.30.90-0.8-1.2-1.3-1.2-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.