Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 4:37 PM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt nearshore and E 10 to 15 kt offshore. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: E se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - NEarshore, E se winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S se with gusts to around 20 kt in the afternoon. Offshore, se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: E se 2 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt nearshore and E 10 to 15 kt offshore. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: E se 2 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: E se 2 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers. Mon night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S in the evening. Seas 1 foot. Wave detail: E se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt near shore - . Except se 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Thu - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Thu night - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.

GMZ600 930 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KMFL 042330 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 730 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 724 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Not much change to the current forecast, as latest guidance appears to handle decreasing PoP trend fairly well. Thunderstorms are generally unlikely overnight, except perhaps an isolated strike or two over the Gulf waters. Tomorrow, PoPs generally below 20-30% across most of the southern peninsula, with best chances again being over the western half of the region in the presence of easterly flow.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

As an upper level perturbation advects across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the Florida Panhandle, a slight moistening in the 850mb to 700mb layer will occur in conjunction with colder 500mb values aloft (-9C to -10C). With the low-level flow remaining out of an easterly direction due to surface ridging remaining in firm control, the Atlantic sea-breeze will propagate inland with ease.
This will allow for convergence of the stronger Atlantic sea-breeze and weaker Gulf sea-breeze to occur over southwestern Florida.
Mesoscale ascent along this boundary could allow for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop later this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates remain fairly meager at 5 to 5.5 C/km and forecasted CAPE values appear to be marginal at best with CAMS hinting at values near 1000 J/kg. With the lack of shear in the vertical profile, the main hazards with thunderstorm activity today will be lightning and heavy rainfall concerns. In addition, given the orientation of the isolated storms along the boundary, certainly cannot rule out a brief funnel cloud if vorticity is ingested into a parent storm.
PoPs during the afternoon hours across southwestern Florida peak in the 30 to 50 percent range with activity propagating towards the Gulf coast metro as sunset approaches. Forecasted afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees across southwestern Florida with highs in the low to mid 80s across the eastern half of the area thanks to the prevalent onshore flow. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the east coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s. A similar pattern will take place tomorrow with morning coastal showers along the east coast and then the potential of showers and storms across inland southwestern Florida tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Generally NWrly mid-lvl flow will prevail to start the week downstream of building ridging over the GOM. A few weak perturbations will pass through the area Mon/Tues, before the aforementioned ridge builds overhead mid-week. At the surface the Atlantic high will gradually weaken/shift east through the period, driving a trend towards a more sea-breeze driven/light synoptic flow regime by late week.

Overall rain chances look to be limited to mostly Mon/Tuesday and are still only in the 15-30% range, with the best chances in the morning/early afternoon near the east coast, with the focus shifting to the western Interior/west coast later in the afternoon. Once the ridge moves overhead by mid-week, the combination of warming mid-lvl temperatures and subsidence should keep rain chances unmentionable through Friday. Probably the most noticeable aspect of the forecast will be increasing temperatures in the mid to late week period as the ridge builds in (and synoptic flow weakens). By Wednesday, highs in the mid 90s are expected over Interior areas with highs likely increasing into the lower 90s near the east coast metro by Thursday/Friday

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF cycle.
Lingering SHRA over the interior this evening, so brief sub-VFR conditions cannot be ruled out near ongoing SHRA. Winds generally light/vrb overnight, then becoming E/ESE around 10 kt with higher gusts in the afternoon. Gulf sea breeze may impact APF and other nearby coastal terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with periods of enhancement, especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty winds in and around shower/thunderstorm activity. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. During wind enhancements, conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions.

BEACHES
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend. The risk may remain elevated early next week, especially across the Palm Beach County beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 74 84 74 84 / 20 10 10 20 West Kendall 71 86 71 86 / 10 20 10 20 Opa-Locka 73 86 73 86 / 20 10 10 20 Homestead 74 84 74 85 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 74 83 74 83 / 10 10 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 74 83 74 84 / 20 10 10 20 Pembroke Pines 73 86 74 87 / 10 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 72 84 71 85 / 10 20 10 20 Boca Raton 73 85 73 85 / 20 20 10 20 Naples 71 88 71 89 / 40 30 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Marco
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Sat -- 04:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:52 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:11 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:44 PM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

Coon Key
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Sat -- 04:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:35 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:02 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coon Key, Florida, Tide feet

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