Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marco Island, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:38PM Thursday December 13, 2018 6:21 PM EST (23:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:46AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 451 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
.small craft should exercise caution offshore...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and southeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Winds south southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. NEarshore, seas 2 to 3 feet. Offshore, seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet in the afternoon. Period 10 seconds. West northwest swell 3 feet in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet offshore. West swell 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening... Then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night and Monday..North northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night and Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 355 Pm Cst Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis..A wave of low pressure moving across the northern gulf will bring strong onshore flow through tonight. Winds become southwesterly to westerly Friday and Friday night as another area of low pressure lifts across the mississippi and tennessee valley region. Northwesterly flow returns behind the passing cold front this weekend. Strong winds and rough seas will bring small craft advisory conditions to portions of the marine area through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marco Island, FL
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location: 25.97, -81.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 132140
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
440 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Discussion
This afternoon and tonight: high pressure retreating northeastward
across the western atlantic remains the dominant influence on our
weather as we head into the overnight hours. Breezy southeast flow
continues into the evening, with the immediate atlantic coast likely
remaining so overnight.

Other than the current band of light showers along the palm beach
coast and adjacent atlantic, the remainder of south florida is
dry, and looks to remain so overnight. Any small rain chances will
be confined to the local waters. Overnight lows continue to warm
due to the southeasterly flow, with most of the atlantic metro in
the upper 60s and low 70s. Interior locations will drop back into
the low to mid 60s, with the gulf coast in the mid to upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday: the main forecast challenge for the period
continues to be the evolution of the deepening upper level low
across tx as it slides east across the northern gulf coast. Not
much has changed with the general synoptic setup, as this upper
level features moves east it will bring with it a deepening low
across the lower ms and tn valleys Friday and sat, along with a
strong cold front through the gulf of mexico.

As is often the case, the details matter and these are still
varying from run to run and model to model, as it often the case
with strong upper level lows somewhat cut-off from the flow. Models
do continue to wholesale slow the front down, not reaching the
gulf coast until Friday evening and not clearing the areas until
Saturday evening.

As with the previous front, the best severe weather chances
remain across central and north florida where the dynamics of the
strong upper and lower jets, instability and a lingering warm
front come together. It looks like as the best instability and
moisture comes into south florida, later on Friday, the main
system will be lifting north and the overall wind field will be
weakening.

Right now most of Friday looks dry and breezy as southerly winds
pick up. Showers and storm chances will increase from NW to se
Friday evening as night as we likely see a pre-frontal band of
some type move into the region. While the severe weather threat
looks minimal at the time, this would be the timeframe to watch.

The wind field and frontal convergence diminish as we head into
Saturday. The slower movement will keep scattered showers with
embedded storms in the forecast for most of the day, gradually
ending towards evening.

Next week: with slower timing by the models, it may take until
Sunday morning (if not later) for the lingering precip to clear
the land areas and the local waters may not be dry until the
evening. Large high pressure spilling across the central us from
the canadian plains will dominate the pattern into mid-week as it
gradually slides eastwards. The storm system will have one last
hurrah with a re-enforcing cold front that pushes through on
Monday, but this looks dry.

With northwesterly flow continuing for several days, daytime highs
looks to remain in the low to mid 70s for at least the first half
of the week. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s for
the interior and gulf coast, with upper 50s and low 60s for the
atlantic coast.

Marine Tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next system
moving east across the gulf will bring increasing southeasterly
flow. Cautionary conditions are expected to develop late tonight as
winds increase to 15 to 20 knots, continuing through the day on
Friday. An advisory is not expected at this time as confidence in
sustained 20 knots for an extended period is low, however this may
change as the event progresses.

Cold front itself is expected to cross the region on Saturday, with
winds veering northwesterly behind the boundary to start the week.

Currently the forecast is for speeds to remain below caution at 10-
15kts. However, a fresh swell is expected to move into the gulf
waters behind the front with offshore waters potentially climbing
to 6-8ft Saturday night.

Aviation Most terminals should see no more than a sprinkle
through the evening, with pbi being the exception as showers are
expected nearby and offshore. As the front nears, winds and rain
chances will increase on Friday. Included a prob30 at apf since that
terminal might see some gulf showers that could produce sub-vfr
impacts.

Otherwise,VFR is expected through most of the period except for
brief bouts of sub-vfr with fast moving showers.

Beach forecast
High risk of rip currents due to NE swell combined with E SE wind
of 15-20 mph is in effect for atlantic waters through at least
this evening. The diminish swell may moderate the risk somewhat on
Friday, though this will be countered by stronger SE winds. Expect
an increased risk along the gulf beaches on Sunday with NW flow
behind the front as the east coast risk diminishes.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 67 81 72 81 10 10 40 50
fort lauderdale 72 81 74 81 10 10 40 40
miami 72 81 73 81 10 10 40 40
naples 66 81 70 76 10 20 60 50

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 7 pm est this evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 88 alm
marine... 88 alm
aviation... 02 rag
beach forecast... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi96 min 78°F 64°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 12 mi39 min SE 4.1 G 8.9 75°F 68°F1017.7 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 30 mi81 min 69°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 33 mi81 min 70°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 41 mi81 min 69°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 44 mi81 min 69°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 48 mi39 min ESE 6 G 8 75°F 66°F1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL13 mi28 minSSE 910.00 miFair74°F61°F64%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE6NE5E4E5NE3NE7NE4NE7E7NE5NE9E11E7NE7E9E7SE9
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1 day agoNW3N4N4N6NE5NE6N6NE3CalmNE3N4NE7NE6NE10NE10NE12NE11E11NE8NE8E12E9E8E7
2 days agoNW8N6N7N6N7N6NE5NE6NE7NE5N3NE6N6NE6N6N6N8N7N8
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Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida (2)
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Marco
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:32 AM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:40 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:21 PM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:55 PM EST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.51.71.81.81.71.41.10.70.40.20.20.30.611.41.71.81.81.61.41.110.9

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Key, Florida
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Coon Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:51 AM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:40 PM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:14 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:27 PM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.92.32.62.72.62.21.81.30.80.40.20.30.71.21.82.32.62.62.42.11.71.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.