Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 10:33 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of today - S se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except S se 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Well offshore, gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: se 1 foot at 3 seconds and nw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Tonight - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S se 3 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt near shore - .except S se 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S se 3 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tue night - S se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except S se 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 1 to 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S se 2 ft at 3 seconds and sw 2 ft at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Wed and Wed night - W sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except sw 5 to 10 kt well offshore. Seas 1 to 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 7 seconds and S se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Thu - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers through the day. A chance of tstms. Thu night - NEar shore, W nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W sw after midnight, then becoming S se after midnight. Well offshore, se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms late in the evening. A slight chance of showers through the night. Fri - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms.

GMZ600 930 Am Cdt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate southeasterly flow will persist into the early part of the week as a system approaches the marine area from the west. Increasing onshore flow and building seas are expected during the mid to late part of next week. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms likely early in the week and again late in the week, with locally higher winds and seas near the storms.

FXUS62 KMFL 131335 AAB AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 935 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

High Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches

Hot Conditions Interior Areas This Afternoon
...A Few Strong Storms Possible Northern Interior/Northeast Areas Late This Afternoon/ Early This Evening...

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 923 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

An upper level ridge will continue to work into South Florida from the Florida Keys today, as a MCS moves eastward from the Southern Gulf coast states into Southeastern United States. This will allow for the steering flow to be south southeast today over South Florida pushing sea breezes into the interior areas.

At the same time, the latest forecast soundings is showing an cap developing around then 725 to 750 mbs. This cap will limit the development on showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but can not rule out some showers and a few thunderstorms over the interior areas late this afternoon where the sea breezes collide.
The showers and thunderstorms should then move more north to northeast through the evening hours into the northern metro areas of Palm Beach County while slowly dissipating.

A few of the storms could become strong late this afternoon into early this evening due to the cooler air aloft. The strongest storms could be capable of producing gusty winds, hail, and lightning strikes.

Highs have been raised a little bit today over the interior areas due to the developing cap leading to more sunshine over this area. Therefore, highs over the interior areas will be in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon leading to heat indices of 105 to 108 degrees over these areas.

Rest of the forecast looks good for today and no other changes are planned.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The diffuse surface boundary that has lingered will give way to a small area of high pressure building off the Florida coast over the Atlantic. This surface high pressure will give way to the next disturbance moving along northern Gulf coast comes into phase with a mid-level low over the central plains heading into Tuesday.

South Florida will sit south of the larger scale support for convection though pooling moisture across the region will lead to building humidity and the stifling sunshine in the afternoons could see heat index values climb into the triple digits. Sea breeze development is anticipated each afternoon with the potential for some showers and thunderstorms, mainly inland around boundary collisions.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid-level low will become cut off from the mean flow aloft mid to late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold front will pinch the high pressure over much of the peninsula of Florida south and east by late week. The frontal boundary could enter south central Florida Wednesday into Thursday, briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front lacks the support for more vigorous activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat.

A window for hazardous heat will open Wednesday that could linger into the weekend. Much of southern Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Winds will be easterly around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots over most of the TAF sites. The only exception is at KAPF taf site where it will become westerly between 18Z and 00Z due to the west coast sea breeze. Weather will remain dry over most of the TAF sites, except for VCSH at KFLL and KFXE taf sites along with VCTS at KPBI taf site between 21 and 00Z. Vis and ceiling in VFR conditions today outside of any showers or storms dropping down to possible IFR conditions.

MARINE
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Tightening pressure gradient tonight into Tuesday will result in hazardous SE winds across the Atlantic waters, with cautionary winds for the rest of the South FL waters. Seas building in the Atlantic to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms possible each day this week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

BEACHES
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A high risk of rip currents is in effect for the Atlantic beaches through Tuesday due to onshore easterly flow. The risk lessens mid to end of the week as the flow becomes more southerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 90 80 90 80 / 20 10 10 0 West Kendall 92 77 92 78 / 10 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 90 79 92 79 / 20 10 20 0 Homestead 89 79 90 79 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 89 80 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 89 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 90 79 93 80 / 20 10 20 0 West Palm Beach 89 77 92 77 / 30 30 30 10 Boca Raton 88 79 91 79 / 20 20 30 10 Naples 92 78 92 79 / 10 10 10 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.

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Marco
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Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:54 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:23 AM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:41 PM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

Coon Key
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Mon -- 12:10 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:48 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:53 AM EDT     1.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:32 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coon Key, Florida, Tide feet

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