Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 1:19 PM   Moonset 1:45 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of today - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning. Tonight - W winds 5 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers through the day. A slight chance of tstms. Fri night - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W in the evening. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers late in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

GMZ600 952 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - Southerly winds will increase to moderate, along with building seas, late in the week ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area late Thursday night through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.

FXUS62 KMFL 161649 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1249 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The frontal boundary has stalled over Central Florida and is expected to sit there before the mid-level trough departs out of the area by tomorrow. The stationary front will allow tropical moisture to pool over the region and keep dew points in the 70s. Combining this with low level flow out of the SW will keep hot and muggy conditions across all of South Florida and keep the environment unstable. The latest 12Z sounding and aircraft soundings show anywhere between ~3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE with PWATs just under 2 inches. With this profile, there will be potential for a few severe thunderstorms again today for the east coast counties. The soundings mainly show a large hail growth zone, which could produce hail of 1 inch or larger in some storms as well as severe wind gusts due to a potential core collapsing. Even with some melting of hail below the freezing level, it still possible for 1 inch hail with the aforementioned sounding parameters. There currently is a marginal risk for severe storms for all of Palm Beach and Broward counties (including the lake) plus the northern half of Miami-Dade. However, the highest threat for severe storms is expected for eastern Palm Beach and Broward counties. This is a result of multiple factors which include the strongest vorticity advection in the region occurring there, proximity to the stationary front, and SW flow in the low levels steering convection to those areas. Storms will be monitored as they develop throughout the day.

Skies will clear out tonight under nocturnal cooling and as broad ridging builds over the region. With winds becoming extremely light and variable and lingering moisture keeping dew points in the mid 70s overnight, some patchy fog will be possible for inland areas and extending to the west coast. For the day on Friday, the ridge will help stabilize the local atmosphere and keep conditions drier, but there will remain slight chances for a few showers and isolated storms as sea and gulf breezes develop in the afternoon. Further convection could occur from outflow boundaries and collisions between outflows and the sea/gulf breezes.

Temperatures for today will peak in the low to mid 90s and then increase into the mid to upper 90s for most locations on Friday.
Heat indices have the potential to rise into advisory criteria for several counties on Friday, and if trends continue then a Heat Advisory will be issued when deemed necessary.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The main story through the weekend will be the potential for hazardous heat as a hot and humid airmass remains over the area with south- southwest low-level flow and troughing off to the north. Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. High temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
With the moist airmass in place, there will also be a threat for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the northern half of the area.

By late in the weekend into early next week, the mid-level troughing over the Southeast US will begin to dip further south and stall out in the area, finally sending a front through South Florida. Ahead of and along the front, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms, with some strong storms possible. After the front clears the area, a slightly cooler airmass will settle in through mid-week and provide relief from the recent stretch of heat, with high temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, and low temperatures in the 70s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly VFR for the next 24 hours, but another round of showers and storms in the area could create impacts this afternoon into the evening. This threat appears to mainly be for KPBI but also for KFLL/KFXE. The rest of the terminals have lower threats for direct impacts by showers and storms, but it is not entirely ruled out at least on a brief basis. Overall, MVFR or lower CIGs or visibilities will be possible in storms today. TEMPOs are in place for KPBI, KFLL and KFXE with these being of higher concern.

MARINE
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the next few days with light to moderate west-southwest flow gradually turning southerly by this weekend. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

BEACHES
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents along the Gulf coast today with onshore flow. Along the Atlantic, rip current risks will be low over the next several days with generally light, offshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 77 93 80 93 / 10 20 0 20 West Kendall 74 95 77 96 / 10 20 0 20 Opa-Locka 77 95 80 96 / 10 20 0 20 Homestead 76 93 80 93 / 10 20 0 20 Fort Lauderdale 77 92 80 92 / 10 30 0 20 N Ft Lauderdale 77 93 80 93 / 10 30 0 20 Pembroke Pines 78 96 80 96 / 10 30 0 20 West Palm Beach 74 93 77 93 / 30 30 0 30 Boca Raton 76 94 78 93 / 20 30 0 30 Naples 78 92 79 93 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Naples
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Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:35 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:06 PM EDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida, Tide feet

Marco
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Thu -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:51 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:19 PM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:35 PM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

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