Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 3:05 PM   Moonset 2:44 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 318 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Light chop on the bay. Sunday - East winds around 5 knots increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay becoming light chop in the afternoon. Sunday night - East winds around 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Light chop on the bay. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. Wednesday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.

GMZ100 318 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate easterly winds will prevail for much of the period. This will yield low to moderate seas and overall favorable marine conditions over the laguna madre and the gulf waters. That said, a moderate risk for rip currents will remain in place through Sunday.

FXUS64 KBRO 180831 AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 331 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The short-term forecast period starts today and will mark the onset of another stretch of very warm to hot, humid, hazy, and dry conditions. Latest LAPS/MSAS surface analysis depicts a sfc high pressure system building into the area in the wake of a departed frontal boundary and shortwave. This sfc feature will result in increased subsidence over the region which will yield dry and tranquil weather conditions.

As far as the warmth/heat, forecast models and ensembles continue to depict 500 mb geopotential heights rising to between 591-591 dam as a broad, elongated sub-tropical heat dome stretching from the eastern Pacific to the Caribbeans strengthen. 1000-500 mb thicknesses are expected to increase to about 582 dam today and 585 dam on Sunday. With 850 mb temperatures expected to climb to between 22-24C on both days, high temperatures will range from the low/mid 90s to near 100F both today and Sunday. With dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices are expected to range from 100-110F. While heat indices look to fall just below Heat Advisory criteria, the NWS HeatRisk tool suggest that any heat related impacts will be confined to most individuals sensitive to heat.

Warm and muggy conditions will continue Saturday night with overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80F with similar dewpoint values. Some patchy mist/fog is possible along with haze as light winds and copious amounts of low level moisture will result in narrow dewpoint depressions.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Mid-level ridging will build over Texas through the period leading to warming temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady southeast winds, breezy at times, will allow for plenty of low-level moisture flow to move into the region and thus keeping the air very humid. The combination of lack of deep moisture and subsidence will maintain rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas through the long term.

Temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Monday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s near the coast. The triple digits will expand eastward through the week, reaching the I-69c/US 77 corridor on Tuesday. High humidity combined with the hot surface temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures exceeding 110 degrees in several locations and Heat Advisories may be needed on Monday.
However, Heat Advisories will be more likely Tuesday through next Saturday as the heat indices over 111 degrees are more widespread on those days. The latest NBM suggests that the max heat index at 116 degrees for a few locations Friday and next Saturday afternoon.
Thus, a possible Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches might be needed during that time. Overnight temperatures each night will remain warm with lows falling into the upper 70s to low 80s.

There is a Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts for anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration with heat indices ranging up to around 111 degrees for Monday and Tuesday. By midweek, appears to pose an Extreme heat risk with heat indices 111- 116 degrees across much of Deep South Texas. This level of rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Through 06z Sunday.....MVFR conditions were taking place at the terminals under a BKN-OVC deck of stratus clouds with ceilings ranging between 1,100-2,000 feet AGL with haze and mist restricting visibilities to 5-8 statute miles.

MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the night into the day on Saturday. With plenty of low level moisture in place, there could be instances of IFR conditions that develop due to fog or low stratus. During the day on Saturday, expect for flying conditions to improve to MVFR and eventually VFR levels.

Light and variable or east-northeast between 5-10 kts are expected to trend towards calm/light and variable overnight. During the day on Saturday, east-northeast winds 5-10 kts will return.

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Today through Sunday: Light to moderate winds will yield low to moderate seas today through Sunday. While marine conditions are mainly favorable through Sunday, there remains a "Moderate Risk" for rip currents along the are beaches through Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Weak to moderate onshore flow with moderate seas of generally 3 to 4 ft will persist through Monday. A locally enhanced pressure gradient could lead to Small Craft Caution conditions on the Laguna Madre and the nearshore Gulf waters each afternoon into the early evening hours, Tuesday through late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 79 94 79 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 93 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 97 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 84 80 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 77 89 77 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Port Isabel
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Sat -- 01:48 AM CDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:44 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:59 AM CDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:39 PM CDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:43 PM CDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
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Sat -- 12:45 AM CST     0.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:46 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:04 AM CST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:46 AM CST     0.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:05 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 PM CST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:10 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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Brownsville, TX,