Monday, June26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Port Isabel, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:26PM Monday June 26, 2017 12:05 PM CDT (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:24AMMoonset 9:57PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1003 Am Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Rest of today..East winds up to 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop in the late morning and afternoon. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms early in the morning, then scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds around 10 knots diminishing to up to 5 knots early in the morning. A light chop on the bay subsiding to smooth early in the morning. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots late in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop late in the afternoon. Numerous showers in the morning. Scattered Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds around 20 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds up to 5 knots becoming east in the late morning and afternoon. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop in the late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south around 15 knots after midnight. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast around 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay increasing to choppy in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Friday..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 1003 Am Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis..Weak high pressure over the north gulf of mexico will support light to moderate east winds and low to moderate seas through Tuesday. Slightly higher winds and seas will develop Tuesday night before southeast winds return on Wednesday. An upper level disturbance over the western gulf will focus scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms through at least Tuesday night. High pressure will shift toward the eastern gulf and southeastern united states Wednesday and Thursday before moving toward bermuda Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will deepen over the southern rockies and southern plains, resulting in stronger southeast winds and building seas especially Thursday and Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Isabel, TX
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location: 26.06, -97.22     debug

Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 261149 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
649 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation No significant changes to the previous TAF package ore
reasoning behind it. The relatively wet forecast continues today
as rio grande valley remains parked between the remaining hot
southwestern u.S. Upper level ridge and a flatter ridge across the
eastern gulf and florida. Fairly deep moisture rolling across the
now summer-warm gulf (sea surface temperatures in the mid 80s) in
low level easterly flow has built a decent swath of showers, most
of them along and south of the rio grande about 25 miles east of
the coast and slowly edging west, with others developing right on
padre island in kenedy county. With morning sounding likely
unencumbered by much of an inversion, expect new convection to
fire along old boundaries including those from the gulf, most
likely by 9 am or so along east of us 77 ih 69e; have kept this
thinking and given well-moistened column expect tropical-type
rains to reduce visibility briefly to ifr levels especially in
stronger cells with thunder.

For the daylight hours, previous forecast covered the timing of
convective onset well and followed this approach, introducing
thunder at brownsville harlingen by 9 10 am and mcallen by noon 1
pm. With even deeper moisture in place and fact that all terminals
received measurable rain (over 1 inch at both harlingen and
brownsville), went with tempo groups for late morning through mid
afternoon (from east to west) with ifr visibilty in thunder, then
tailed back to prob30 for late afternoon with leftover boundaries
and worked-over areas making specifics more difficult.

Expect an evening break in all areas, but perhaps not for long
toward the coast where prob30 was reintroduced with as time height
sections increase moisture and continued easterly flow over the
warm waters may quickly redevelop showers soon after sunset which
will move onshore sooner than early this morning. Extended the
prob30 idea through most of the night at harlingen and brownsville
with reasonable chances for brief visibility restricting showers
but only to MVFR. Mcallen should remain partly cloudy, with
perhaps MVFR ceilings late at night but no mentionable
restrictions for now.

Ceilings will flirt between high MVFR and lowVFR with the MVFR
conditions during the heavier showers or thunderstorms.

52 bsg

Prev discussion issued 404 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
short term (now through Tuesday): weak but present 500 mb trough
strung from north to south in the western gulf roughly along 94w
longitude will remain nearly stationary today, with deep layer
moisture continuing to peak along and east of the axis mainly to 92w
(south of the tx la border) today. The trough nudges west toward the
coastal bend and lower texas coastline tonight and early Tuesday,
focusing the deeper moisture closer to the coast. However, the best
moisture and forcing looks to remain offshore for the short term,
which makes for an ideal set-up for the valley deep south texas:
enough moisture for more welcome rain, with the more sustained and
heavier rain-producing clusters remaining over the gulf.

For the sensible weather, some diurnal considerations were added to
this forecast based on analog situations. First, late night pre-
dawn precipitation will increase from generally low-topped
convection over the gulf, moving west and tending to become more
isolated to scattered the farther inland one gets, with no
precipitation across the rio grande plains and upper valley. Second,
morning heating will quickly trigger more numerous showers and some
thunder especially along east of us 77 ih 69e, reaching to the
mcallen metro (us 281 ih 69c) region by or shortly after noon, with
best chances for more numerous showers storms through mid to late
afternoon, but fading back to more scattered coverage across the rio
grande plains. Meanwhile, still plenty of deep moisture from the
gulf to the lower valley; while marine layer arguments will reduce
coverage by mid to late afternoon, it won't end it until just before

The proximity to the 500 mb trough tonight into Tuesday will offer
the better opportunity for coverage and even a bit more rainfall
totals than today. Unlike this overnight, expect just a short break
with no rainfall over land near the coast before isolated to
scattered activity begins, before midnight. Numerous coverage could
enter the picture along east of us 77 ih 69e before daybreak
Tuesday, but with back side of 500 mb trough never moving onshore
confidence is low for such coverage until daytime heating gets going
Tuesday and percolates these areas. The increased coverage and
boundaries will head west before noon and clusters should overspread
all but zapata county before mid to late afternoon.

Temperatures will be tricky to say the least, driven by timing,
boundaries, residual rainfall, mid to high cloudiness, etc. On
Sunday, mcallen was the "cool" spot and solidly broke its 13 day
spell of triple-digit highs with just an 87 (despite a mid 90s
forecast). Combining the uncertainty in timing with the expectation
of plenty of convection, boundaries, and early onset, went on the
low side of the guidance suite with lower 90s just about everywhere.

As for the rainfall... Previous forecasters had the idea right:
overall, by the time all is said and done with the Sunday-Tuesday
event, all areas will end up in the 1 to 3" range on average.

"lucky" areas (we all need rain after the 3 week "canicula" heat
wave) will see 5+ inches. Brownsville spi international airport
received 1.55" and valley int'l airport (harlingen) 1.05" on Sunday -
quite a way to break through the dry june. Another two days of this
and 5" will be in the cards, as well as a dent in the drought.

Slower moving clusters could produce upwards of 3" which would be in
the nuisance flood range for urban poor drainage areas, so something
for commuters and drivers to be aware of each day.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday): continued, but waning,
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
Tuesday night through Friday as the 500 mb weakness over the
western and northwest gulf of mexico persists but gradually
dissipates. Dry weather will return for Friday night through
Sunday as the mid-level weakness is replaced by 500 mb high
pressure building over the northern half of the gulf of mexico.

Near normal temperatures early in the forecast period courtesy of
clouds and rain will rise to above normal levels towards the end
of the period as the 500 mb high takes over.

Marine (now through Tuesday): if winds seas were the only forecast,
conditions would be nearly perfect for boating fishing trips as
light to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will be dominant
in the "background". Unfortunately, the "foreground" includes
numerous gusty showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Areas under or near the storms will experience locally torrential
rains as well as briefly choppy waters and gusty winds over 25
knots. One thing we'll be keeping an eye on near the shore is
potential for quick developing waterspouts mainly each morning, but
perhaps into early afternoon also.

Light variable winds on land, slow moving east to west cells from
the gulf, and colliding boundaries over the now sufficiently warm
gulf and bay waters (mid 80s) are prime conditions for a few cells
to spin down a spout or two. While summer waterspouts are not as
dangerous as a spring fall larger mesocyclone (i.E. Tornado over
water event), they can still be plenty dangerous and produce gale
force gusts in and nearby.

Tuesday night through Sunday: small craft exercise caution and or
small craft advisory winds and or seas are expected through a vast
majority of the period as high pressure over the gulf of mexico
interacts with a low pressure system that will drop slowly into
north texas.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 0 mi54 min 85°F 87°F1017.2 hPa
BZST2 3 mi54 min E 8 G 9.9 81°F 85°F1016.2 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 3 mi48 min SE 8.9 G 11 82°F 1017.6 hPa
42044 - PS-1126 TABS J 13 mi126 min ENE 9.7 G 19 79°F 84°F1017.5 hPa (+1.4)74°F
RLIT2 14 mi48 min E 8 G 12 82°F 84°F1017.4 hPa
PMNT2 36 mi54 min 81°F 87°F1017.5 hPa
42045 - PI-745 TABS K 40 mi156 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 84°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX9 mi73 minENE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F75°F75%1017 hPa
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX16 mi73 minNW 510.00 miOvercast86°F77°F75%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from SPL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE7S7S10S8S8S9S8W5SW11S14SW13SW8SW6N4E3NE7NE6E4E5E6E4E3E4Calm
1 day agoS8S7S4SW5NW3N3N3N6E4NE4E5E13SE16NW8S4S7S5CalmCalmSE6SE6SE5SE6SE5
2 days agoSE7SE7SE8SE3S5S6S6SW5NW3NW4SW8SW11S20SW16

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
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Mon -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:01 AM CDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Mon -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:26 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.