Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 5:15 AM   Moonset 6:56 PM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 956 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Choppy on the bay, diminishing to a moderate chop in the late evening and overnight. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, becoming northeast early in the morning. Choppy on the bay, diminishing to a moderate chop late in the evening, then diminishing to light chop after midnight. Friday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Choppy on the bay, diminishing to a moderate chop in the late evening and overnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 956 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate southeast winds will persist along the lower texas coast through late week with generally moderate seas. Small craft exercise caution conditions are expected during afternoon hours on the bay through the week. A cold front approaches the coastal waters Thursday night slowly moving through the region Friday and possibly becoming stationary over tamaulipas waters this weekend. Low rain chances return Friday through the weekend due to the proximity of the front.

FXUS64 KBRO 080254 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 954 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Key Message:

- Hot and unseasonably warm temperature are expected through the short term.

-A Heat Advisory is in effect Wednesday afternoon from 1 PM to 7 PM for inland, Cameron, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Hidalgo and Brooks counties.

-Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday.

Zonal to slightly southwesterly flow aloft over the short term period will lead to abnormally warm temperatures, heat indices in the triple digits and dry conditions. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide southerly flow. Low pressure across the Sierra Madre will lead to an increased pressure gradient and slightly increased winds along the coast east afternoon. We continue to see abundant cloud cover today, but as we head into later this afternoon we should see a bit more clearing in the afternoon.

Lets talk heat. Temperatures this afternoon will be well above normal but thanks to lingering cloud cover, heat indices will likely remain just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. For Wednesday, temperatures are expected to be warmer with highs rising into the 90s and low triple digits across the region. Heat indices will rise to between 104 degrees and 113 degrees across the entire CWA away from the Island with the highest heat indices along the I-69C corridor. A Heat Advisory has been issued for inland Cameron, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Brooks, and Hidalgo counties with heat indices between 111 degrees and 113 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be warm with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Hot temperatures will continue to be the main concern for the start of the long term period. As the dryline over Central Texas shifts further east Thursday temperatures will again rise into the triple digits. Higher dewpoints east of the dryline will likely support heat indices in the 111-115 range roughly along and east of I-69C Thursday afternoon.

A passing upper level shortwave looks to support the passage of a cold front Thursday night into Friday. This will likely bring more seasonal temperatures for the weekend, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Easterly to southeasterly surface winds look to return by Sunday, bringing a slight increase in temperatures and moisture.

Rain chances look to remain fairly low through the period, however increased forcing and ample instability could support a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along the cold front Friday.
Additional rain chances look possible through the day Saturday as weak overrunning looks to setup behind the front. With the return of easterly to southeasterly surface winds Sunday, increased moisture and instability could again support a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain looks to be Sunday, with PoPs around 20-30%.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

IR fog and stratus satellite channels indicating low level marine layer expanding inland with MVFR ceilings covering most of the forecast region. Expect ceilings to lower a bit more and possibly drop into IFR category a few hours after midnight or closer to sunrise. Lower ceilings to persist into mid morning before quickly mixing out and dissipating between 16-18Z, with VFR prevailing the remainder of the TAF period. Some patchy MVFR to IFR fog may develop at KBRO an KHRL around sunrise if winds lower sufficiently with probabilities still low at 10-20 percent.
Duration of any fog should be short-lived.

MARINE
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period.
Tonight, we could see some patchy fog/hazy conditions on the Gulf waters. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible each afternoon, especially across the Laguna Madre and northern Gulf waters due to elevated winds.

Thursday through next Tuesday...Light to moderate winds and moderate seas are likely Thursday. However, stronger northeasterly winds behind a cold front Friday will likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories Friday afternoon. Wind speeds look to diminish Friday night, with light to moderate winds and moderate seas continuing through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 94 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 99 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 78 102 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 105 76 107 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 84 78 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 93 76 98 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ250-251- 253>255-353.

GM...None.

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Port Isabel
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Tue -- 06:03 AM CDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:38 PM CDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
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Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
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Tue -- 04:27 AM CST     1.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:56 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:04 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:24 PM CST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:24 PM CST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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