Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Isabel, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:46PM Monday March 27, 2017 7:26 PM CDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:13AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 418 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 11 to 16 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 11 to 16 knots increasing to 16 to 21 knots in the late morning and afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay increasing to choppy in the late morning and afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 12 to 17 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 14 knots shifting south 7 to 12 knots after midnight, then shifting southwest 7 to 10 knots early in the morning. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds 7 to 11 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 7 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Friday..Southeast winds 12 to 17 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Friday night..Southeast winds 14 to 17 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Saturday..Southeast winds 14 to 17 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 12 to 17 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 418 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis..The lull in southeast winds will persist through tonight before stronger onshore flow develops Tuesday and Wednesday in advance of a cold front. As the front approaches the coast Thursday winds will trend lower before turning north at light to moderate speeds. Winds quickly return southeast Friday as high pressure builds over the eastern gulf. A slight decrease in seas will be short lived before a higher sea develops in response to the wind. Lower seas are expected behind the cold front Thursday. The chance of rain increases for Wednesday and Thursday due to the proximity and passage of the cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Isabel, TX
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location: 26.06, -97.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 272348
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
648 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Vfr cloud decks to gradually dissipate through the
evening hours as daytime mixing wanes. As the surface inversion
forms and a low level jet strengthens MVFR stratus develop with
the three regional airports seeing increasing cloud cover after
06z. MVFR conditions to persist through sunrise breaking up late
morning withVFR conditions Tuesday afternoon. Sufficient winds
through the evening and overnight should limit any fog formation.

Southeast winds overnight to remain near 10 knots with a few
higher gust. Stronger winds likely Tuesday with gusts 25-30 knots
maybe nearing 35 knots at times.

Prev discussion /issued 332 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017/
short term (tonight through Tuesday night): water vapor imagery this
afternoon shows a 500mb trough moving over southern california with
a nearly 500mb zonal flow over deep south texas. The mid-level flow
will become more southwesterly over the region Tuesday and Tuesday
night as the 500mb low moves over northern new mexico. The pressure
gradient will strengthen Tuesday and Tuesday night resulting in
breezy to windy onshore flow along the lower texas coast. Very warm
and rain-free conditions will prevail through the short term period
with very limited moisture in place. Well above normal temperatures
with continue tonight and Tuesday night with low temperatures in the
70s and high temperatures Tuesday ranging from the 80s near the
coast to the mid 90s across the west.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday): a large and very strong 500
mb closed low will move east across the south central plains
states on Wed ushering a weak and dry cold front through the area
late wed/early thurs. The 500 mb dynamics associated with this
closed low will be very substantial for south tx throughout the
day. However... The limiting factor for the rgv will be the
lacking deep layer moisture values associated with this closed
low. The GFS and ECMWF models both keep the better deep layer
moisture values pooled much further north concentrated mainly
over northern tx/ok and NE with only marginal values advecting
over the rgv from the west. So this will likely keep the conv
potential pretty low around the region. However isolated pockets
of conv cannot be ruled out on wed. Also due to the combination of
the path of the center of the closed 500 mb low and the overall
concentration of the better moisture and instability values... Spc
is maintaining the best chcs for svr conv over the lower miss
river valley and the surrounding areas. SPC places the
marginal/slgt risk values down into the eastern third of tx for
wed but leave out the rgv due to the limiting factors mentioned
earlier.

Caa on thurs will be pretty limited with a fairly light northerly
low level flow prevailing into thurs. With drier air moving into
the region expect the daytime heating after the front to warm
temps up pretty quickly. Then the WAA will return pretty quickly
to the region on Fri as the surface winds swing around from the
south to southeast. This southerly flow will prevail on into fri
and Sat as 500 mb ridging moves back in place over the rgv.

Another large 500 mb closed low then moves into the south central
plains states Fri night into sat/sun which once again maintains
good PVA over the region for this weekend. However deep layer
moisture will again be limited over the rgv on sat. The longer
range guidance then tries to pool deeper layer moisture just to
the north of the rgv over central tx with this moisture advecting
east quickly late Sun as the 500 mb trough axis lifts out. For
now will leave only slgt chc pops in place for the weekend and
will see how future model runs try to resolve this pattern for the
weekend.

The model temps for the longer range period have shown more
disagreement starting on the weekend with better agreement evident
through fri. The GFS is maintaining a cooler bias for the weekend
temps versus the ECMWF which is apparently due to the GFS digging
the closed 500 mb low much further south this weekend in
comparison to the gfs. So will opt for a general blend of the
gfs/ecmwf temps through day 7.

The pre-frontal wind regime on Wed ahead of the first 500 mb
feature looks to set the stage for a potential heat spike for the
rgv. The latest ECMWF run keeps most temps across the rgf pushing
well into the 90s with guidance for mfe threatening the century
mark. The GFS mex MOS for mfe is also pushing maxes for mfe on wed
at 99 degrees. So 100 degrees is not out of the question for the
rgv for wed.

Overall forecast confidence is a little lower today versus
yesterday due to the stronger model differences for this coming
weekend. Run to run comparisons of the GFS mex MOS also show
forecast temps for this weekend swinging more wildly.

Marine (now through Tuesday night): buoy 42020 reported south-
southeast winds around 8 knots gusting to around 10 knots with seas
slightly under 4.9 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 14 cdt/19 utc.

High pressure and low pressure interaction will produce breezy winds
and building seas along the lower texas coast through the period.

Small craft exercise caution conditions expected to continue across
the gulf waters tonight with small craft advisories likely on the
laguna madre on Tuesday. A small craft advisory maybe be needed on
the gulf waters by late Tuesday afternoon due to building seas and
stronger winds.

Wednesday through Saturday night: the pgf ahead of the 1st 500 mb
closed low will strengthen the s-se surface flow along the lower
tx coastline up near SCA levels. The passage of this system will
then weaken the pgf for thurs and Fri allowing the seas and winds
to decrease somewhat. The approach of the next 500 mb closed low
will restrengthen the pgf once again for Sat possibly pushing the
marine conditions back up to scec/borderline SCA levels.

Bro watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/rgv
59... Short term
69... Long term


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 0 mi38 min S 4.1 G 7 77°F 76°F1008.6 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 3 mi38 min ESE 8.9 G 12 76°F 1009 hPa
42044 - PS-1126 TABS J 13 mi86 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 75°F1008.7 hPa (-1.3)71°F
RLIT2 14 mi38 min E 15 G 18 75°F1008.5 hPa
PMNT2 36 mi38 min 77°F 80°F1008.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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SE20
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G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX9 mi33 minESE 116.00 miOvercast with Haze78°F72°F82%1008.3 hPa
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX16 mi33 minSE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F69°F69%1008.2 hPa

Wind History from SPL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S7S10S8S8S9S8W5SW11S14SW13SW8SW6N4E3NE7NE6E4E5E6E4E3E4Calm
1 day agoS8S7S4SW5NW3N3N3N6E4NE4E5E13SE16NW8S4S7S5CalmCalmSE6SE6SE5SE6SE5
2 days agoSE7SE7SE8SE3S5S6S6SW5NW3NW4SW8SW11S20SW16
G21
SW14
G18
S15S18S15S14S10SW9SW8S9S7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:30 AM CDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:21 AM CDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Mon -- 10:02 PM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.911.11.110.90.70.60.40.30.40.50.60.80.9110.90.80.60.50.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:30 AM CST     1.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM CST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:25 PM CST     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:44 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:58 PM CST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:59 PM CST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.911.11.110.80.60.40.30.20.30.40.60.80.9110.90.70.50.40.40.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.