Sunrise 6:55 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 9:52 PM   Moonset 7:29 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 956 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Friday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Rough on the bay. Friday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rough on the bay becoming choppy after midnight. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knots. Choppy on the bay becoming rough in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Rough on the bay. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Rough on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 956 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis - Fresh to strong southeast winds and high seas are expected to continue through Sunday. Winds will diminish Sunday night, with elevated wave heights persisting on the gulf of mexico waters into next week. Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Tuesday.

FXUS64 KBRO 260555 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The main headline in the short term will continue to be the wind. A tight pressure gradient has produced a windy day across deep South Texas and the RGV so far. As repeating storm systems mature and lift over the Southern Plains in the short term, the mechanism of lower pressure upstream interacting with higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will drive stronger winds. Southeast winds will decrease slightly tonight, but will come right back on Friday. A wind advisory will be possible for southeastern sections of the CWA on Friday, as some model guidance kicks sustained winds to 30 mph or higher and/or gusts to 40 mph or higher.

With marine moisture being well mixed into the low levels of the atmosphere, light fog or haze may slightly limit visibility at times. Elevated waves and longer swell periods will contribute to an elevated rip current risk and a high risk is now in effect, likely to extend through Friday night.

The forecast will continue dry in the short term, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will remain above average by about 5 degrees. Lows will be in the 70s. Highs will range from the 80s nearer the coast to the 90s inland.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Tight pressure gradients will remain in place for the start of the long term period, supporting a strong 850mb LLJ (Low Level Jet) running along the Texas Coast up into the Midwest. Stronger winds will likely mix to the surface Saturday, possibly prompting a Wind Advisory for some of the southeastern counties, though conditions appear to be borderline.

As we continue through the period, an upper level trough over the central plains will traverse further east, weakening the LLJ and pushing it further offshore. Breezy conditions are likely Sunday, but Wind Advisories look unlikely. Mostly zonal flow aloft looks to dominate the start of the workweek, with weak ridging taking over by mid-week. At the surface southeasterly winds will continue to advect warm, humid air into the region, keeping high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, and low temperatures in the 70s.

Overall, rain chances are fairly low through the period, however there are a couple opportunities for some areas to get rain. The first will be Sunday, when a cold front looks to stall just to the north of the CWA, possibly promoting some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the northern CWA border.

Beginning Monday, a series of shortwaves moving through the upper level flow could kick off some convection along the Sierra Madre Mountains, and some of those showers and thunderstorms could make it to Deep South Texas before dissipating. The best rain chances look to be Monday night into Tuesday, though confidence is still low, and rain chances are capped at 20-30%.

Additionally, with stronger winds offshore for the start of the period, higher seas are expected through at least Monday , most likely resulting in a high risk of rip currents.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR ceilings increasing and spread westward overnight persisting through Friday morning. Low probability and short-duration of IFR is shown by some high resolution around sunrise with confidence also low of the lower ceilings occurring with models indicating surface inversion rising as winds increase overnight. Ceilings are expected to rise to VFR with lower clouds breaking up west to east for the afternoon before the marine layer moves back inland shortly after sunset with MVFR cloud decks increasing. Pressure gradient remains strong with southerly wind gusts increasing near 25 knots mid-morning peaking between 3-35 knots for the afternoon. Winds remain rather brisk Friday evening.



MARINE
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Small craft advisory conditions are ongoing through Friday and may be extended into Friday night. A tight pressure gradient is fueling the stronger southeast winds and elevated seas. The stronger winds are helping marine moisture mix into the lower atmosphere, supporting some patchy fog in coastal areas, especially through the overnight and early morning hours.

Saturday through next Thursday...Strong pressure gradients along the Lower Texas Coast will likely support elevated winds through the start of the period. Wind speeds will likely decrease by Sunday afternoon, however elevated seas will likely remain a bit longer. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through the weekend, and possibly carrying into the day Monday. Light to moderate winds and moderate seas look to continue through the remainder of the period, though some Small Craft Exercise caution headlines may be needed Monday and Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 89 75 90 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 73 91 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 76 91 76 95 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 95 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 81 75 83 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 87 74 89 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175.

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Port Isabel
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Thu -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM CDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:51 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:53 PM CDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
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Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
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Thu -- 05:57 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:58 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:52 PM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:38 PM CST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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