Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lely, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:27PM Saturday February 24, 2018 5:23 AM EST (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 1:57AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 222 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..South winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday night..South winds 5 knots becoming east northeast late in the evening. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 5 knots becoming north northeast in the evening. Seas less than 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming east late in the evening. Seas less than 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Wednesday..South winds 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 327 Am Cst Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis..A surface strething west over the northern gulf coast will bring light to moderate onshore flow through tonight. A weak front stalls near the coast Saturday night, bringing unsettled weather into Monday before moving south of the coast. Surface high psssing north of the area brings easterly, then southeasterly flow back to the area by Tuesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lely, FL
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location: 26.09, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 240818
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
318 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Discussion
The ECMWF and the GFS in good agreement with the bermuda high
hanging on for the weekend, then weakening the beginning of next
week. This will keep the east to southeast wind across the region,
and showers periodically moving onshore this weekend. The GFS is
showing some CAPE across the region, less than 1000 joules, but
nam model soundings are showing an inversion starting just over
800mb persisting through the weekend, which should hinder
convective development, and thus, only showers are in the forecast
at this time. This will need to be re-evaluated with new
soundings and model updates to see if the cap may erode enough to
be broken and allow thunderstorm development.

By Monday, a cold front is progged to approach the area. The
models are in agreement with the front weakening as it does, and
possibly even dissipating over the area. The tail and looks to
make it to around the lake, maybe palm beach county. The tail end
may get lifted back to the north as high pressure builds over
bermuda by the middle of the week. Really, the front does not look
to make a significant impact on the region, except perhaps a wind
direction change. Models are not even indicating any significant
enhancement for showers attm.

As the front lifts away for the latter half of next week, models
are indicating clearing skies, and a couple of dry days. Dew
points remain in the 60s and high temperatures continue to run in
the low to mid 80s for the week.

By the end of the week, a stronger cold front approaches the area.

Again, the ECMWF and the GFS are in pretty good agreement with
this. The front is progged to move through the entire CWA by
Saturday morning. Both models are indicating this should be a dry
passage. But, it does look to bring somewhat cooler temperatures
for next weekend, with the highs in the 70s for most of the cwa.

The dew points look to be the most significant change, with the
current forecast calling for them to drop into the 40s and 50s by
Saturday morning.

Marine
A bermuda high is forecast to maintain the east to southeast wind
for most of the weekend. The high should begin to weaken on
Sunday, ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the area on
Monday. The wind is forecast to gradually relax over the next
couple of days. Showers will continue to be possible, especially
over the atlantic waters through the middle of the week. Seas are
forecast to subside to generally 2 foot or less by the end of the
weekend, and persist that way through the middle of the week. For
the latter half, seas are currently forecast to build back to 4
to 5 feet in the gulf stream.

Aviation
Isolated light showers continue to advect on shore from over the
atlantic. Breezy east southeast winds will persist through the
remainder of this morning, mainly 10-13 kt. Aft 24 1400z, expect
winds to increase around 15 kt with occasional higher gusts.

Expect winds to weaken slightly as evening approaches. Sct bkn
low clouds should be present through the period along the eastern
portion of the peninsula with bases 2000-3500 ft agl.

Beach forecast
The bermuda high is forecast to maintain the breezy east wind
through the day. This will bring a high risk of rip currents to
all the south florida atlantic beaches today. The wind is forecast
to relax beginning tonight, into tomorrow morning, possibly
reducing the risk to a moderate risk for Sunday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 81 72 84 72 40 20 20 10
fort lauderdale 80 74 81 73 40 20 20 20
miami 83 73 84 73 30 20 20 10
naples 85 68 85 67 20 10 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 13
marine... 13
aviation... 27 jt
beach forecast... 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 3 mi53 min E 5.1 G 8.9 74°F1021.9 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi98 min 68°F 67°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 39 mi53 min E 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 78°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL4 mi30 minE 610.00 miOvercast71°F68°F90%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E6E6E9E10E11SE10E6SE9W9W10W6E8E7E8E8E7E7E7E6E7E6E9E6
1 day agoE7E7E7E9E10E10E11NE7SE8E10E75E8E7E6E7E6E7E6NE5NE6E6NE6NE5
2 days agoE8E7E7E10E8E10
G16
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E8E10E7E8NE7NE6NE6NE6NE6E7E7

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Gulf Of Mexico, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:16 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:57 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM EST     1.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:06 PM EST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:47 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.2-0.20.20.71.11.41.61.81.81.71.61.51.41.51.82.12.42.52.52.42.11.61

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida
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Marco
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:56 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:02 AM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:45 AM EST     1.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:53 PM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:30 PM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.50.81.11.21.31.31.31.2111.11.31.61.8221.81.61.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.