Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lely, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:56PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:29 AM EDT (14:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:13AMMoonset 6:12PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 956 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft should exercise caution for winds...
Rest of today..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and east northeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and east northeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and east 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and east southeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and southeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East southeast winds around 10 knots nearshore and east southeast around 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and southeast around 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 430 Am Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east wind flow will persist through the remainder of the week as a strong surface ridge of high pressure remains across the southeast states. There will be an increasing chance of showers and Thunderstorms over the marine area this weekend as a cold front approaches the marine area. Increasing offshore flow can be expected late Monday following the passage of the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lely, FL
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location: 26.09, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 191332 aab
afdmfl
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service miami fl
932 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Update
The stationary front will remain over the florida straits today
allowing for a northeast wind flow of 5 to 10 knots over south
florida. The latest 12z morning sounding from mia is showing drier
air from about 700 mb on up, while the below 700 mbs there is
still moisture in place. This will allow for isolated to scattered
showers to develop and affect south florida today with the best
chance over the east coast metro areas due to the northeast wind
flow. However, thunder does not look like a threat today, due to
the drier air above 700 mbs. Therefore, the thunder wording has
been removed from the forecast for tonight into tonight for south
florida.

The north northeast swell has also drop down to 2 feet or less
this morning and should remain at 2 feet or less for rest of today.

This will keep the seas at 4 to 6 feet over palm beach waters
with 3 to 5 feet over rest of the atlantic waters today.

Therefore, the SCA has been replace with a scec condition for seas
for palm beach waters for today.

King tide will continue today into early this weekend because of
the new moon phase occurring late this week into early this
weekend. This will allow for the tides to be about half a foot to
1 foot above normal for this time of year along the east coast
beaches of south florida during high tides. Therefore, an coastal
flood advisory will continue for the beaches of palm beach county
and a coastal flood statement for rest of the east coast beaches
of south florida through early this weekend.'
rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

Update 54 bnb

Prev discussion issued 719 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
aviation...

the winds will be northeast around 10 knots today before
decreasing to 5 knots or less tonight at all of south florida taf
sites. Scattered showers and may be a thunderstorm will affect the
taf sites today. However, the coverage of thunderstorms will be
few and far over south florida today. Therefore, vcsh will
continue at all of the TAF sites today and will updates to the taf
sites if a thunderstorm moves into the TAF site. The ceiling and
vis will also remain inVFR conditions today outside of any shower
or thunderstorm where it could fall down into MVFR conditions.

Aviation... 54 bnb
prev discussion... Issued 415 am edt Thu oct 19 2017
discussion...

short term (today-Friday): a stationary front located just to our
south over the florida straits will continue to be a focus for
moisture and shower activity through Friday. However, water vapor
satellite imagery indicates drier air over central fl and over the
northern part of south fl, with somewhat moister air over the far
southern fl and along the east coast. These areas will continue
to see a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
each day, with highest chances during the afternoon. Some showers
will also be possible overnight tonight, similar to last night,
for the east coast metro and far south areas. Temperatures should
be near normal values. Winds Thursday will be light to moderate
from the ne, with stronger ne-ene winds on Friday.

Long term (Friday night-Wednesday): high pressure over the SE us
will gradually migrate eastward to the western atlantic over the
weekend into early next week. The pressure gradient will tighten
late Friday and strong winds will then persist through the
weekend. These winds will be ene early in the weekend, becoming e
later in the weekend. Typical showers will be possible each day
this weekend, but excessive rainfall is not expected. The high
pressure will weaken and move farther offshore early next week in
response to a strong trough marching eastward across the us. The
trough and its associated cold front will approach south fl on
Tuesday. We can expect an increase in atmospheric moisture early
next week as winds become SE and then S as the cold front
approaches. The GFS and ECMWF both have the front clearing through
south fl by Wednesday. If this scenario comes to fruition, then
south fl could feel its first taste of fall, with some drier and
cooler air.

Marine...

n NE winds continue during the next few days, with speeds to 20
kts on Friday. Winds will become more easterly later in the
weekend but will remain breezy through the weekend. Seas in the
atlantic waters will be up to 5 to 7 feet for the rest of the week
and into the first part of the weekend.

Aviation...

convection associated with a stalled boundary will continue to
impact the east coast terminals over the coming hours with sub-vfr
vsbys and CIGS possible. Thunderstorms will be possible near the
coastal waters in the morning, pushing inland of the terminals by
afternoon. Generally northeasterly flow will prevail with gusty
variability around convection.

Beach forecast...

with increasing ne-ene winds later this week corresponding with
high astronomical tides, water levels along the east coast will be
near coastal flood criteria during high tide. Based on recent
observations, we have issued a coastal flood advisory for palm
beach county in effect from this morning into Saturday. This may
need to be extended southward to include broward and miami-dade
later this week if conditions warrant.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 86 76 86 79 40 20 30 40
fort lauderdale 86 77 88 80 30 20 40 40
miami 87 77 88 79 30 20 40 40
naples 89 74 91 75 20 10 30 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for flz168.

Coastal flood advisory until 8 pm edt Saturday for flz168.

Am... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt Friday
for gmz676.

Update... 54 bnb
discussion... 98 abh
marine... 98 abh
aviation... 54 bnb
beach forecast... 98 abh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 3 mi41 min NNE 9.9 G 13 82°F1017.4 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi104 min 74°F 72°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 39 mi41 min NNE 8 G 12 77°F 82°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL4 mi36 minNE 810.00 miA Few Clouds79°F73°F82%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE15E15E9NE10NE12NE14
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1 day agoNE8NE7NE9E9E6N8N9NE10NE7NE7NE11NE11NE11NE9NE7NE7NE5NE7NE8NE9NE6NE8NE7NE11
2 days agoCalmW3NW6W6W9W8W9NW9W5CalmNW4NE3N3E3NE5NE3E4NE4NE4E4E3E4E6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Gulf Of Mexico, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:06 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:53 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.132.62.11.50.80.40.30.71.322.633.12.92.62.11.61.211.21.82.42.9

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida
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Marco
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:03 PM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.52.62.52.21.71.10.50.20.20.61.11.62.12.42.52.42.11.61.20.80.70.91.41.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.