Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 1:26 AM   Moonset 12:18 PM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1007 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Rest of tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Wed - E winds around 5 kt becoming W sw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - NE winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - E winds around 5 kt becoming S se in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S se in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop.

GMZ600 917 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis - Areas of fog possible over bays and inland waterways late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will generally be light as high pressure slides eastward over the central gulf coast mid- week. Light southerly flow will prevail with occasional increases each afternoon associated with the local seabreeze. With high pressure over the area, no storms are expected over area waters the next several days.

FXUS62 KMFL 302344 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 744 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

No major changes to the forecast as the previous philosophy is working well. Fog is still in the forecast for tonight with an inland focus. Several areas have seen heavy rainfall today, which could provide some surface-based moisture for fog formation. This will have to be monitored in case additional updates are needed overnight to account for this in more areas of South Florida.
Otherwise, the convection is going as anticipated with a weakening trend expected over the coming hours as the sea breezes retreat back to the coast. Some activity could linger over the coastal waters overnight.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

An unsettled couple of days are expected across South FL. A shortwave trough is expected to cross the area today and then sit just east of the area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a surface trough that was sitting across the east coast metro this morning will slowly drift to the west throughout the course of today. SCT showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into evening, with the highest PoPs over interior South FL, however chances will remain along the coasts as well. Despite the trough axis moving east of the area overnight into tomorrow morning, residual moisture will linger across the area resulting in more SCT showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Main threat over the next couple days will be for locally heavy rain. While widespread flooding is not expected, PWAT values of 1.8-1.9 inches will result in high rainfall rates, and a quick 1- 2 inches per hour is possible in spots which could lead to some isolated urban flooding. Winds tonight over the interior are expected to be nearly calm, so some patchy fog is possible in the typical locations across the Everglades, around the lake, and interior SW FL.

High temps this afternoon will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro to upper 80s across SW FL. A mild evening is expected with overnight lows ranging from the middle 60s around the lake to lower 70s close to the coasts. Temps will nudge higher a couple degrees on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s across the east coast metro, to around 90 over interior SW FL.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

As we move into the latter half of the week, the trough will make it's exit eastward into the Atlantic as a mid-level ridge gradually moves into the Southeast. With easterly flow and remnant moisture, there is a chance for isolated to scattered light showers on Thursday. However, through the majority of the long term, a weak body of surface high pressure will have the main influence on the conditions over the Peninsula, thus keeping it drier and warm. The high will be situated over the western Atlantic which will lead to consistent easterly flow near the surface. With the E/SE flow, there will be a chance (15-30%) for isolated to scattered showers daily, due to modest moisture advection and pooling. Showers and isolated storms could be enhanced further by daily gulf and sea breezes. However, in the current ensemble outlook, widespread heavy rainfall, or significantinstability, does not appear to be a threat for the long term. Caution will need to be taken with any slow-moving rain showers due to sensitivity to flash flooding, especially when the grounds are saturated.

Temperatures will be near to just above-normal through the extended period. The highs will be rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across the SW and interior, while remaining in the low to mid 80s along the Atlantic Coast. The overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Conditions should improve to VFR this evening as convection around the terminals diminishes. Lighter wind overnight should become southeasterly as it picks up in the morning. Sea breeze development is expected again on Wednesday which will turn APF onshore. Showers and storms are possible from mid to late morning into the afternoon before the focus of the activity shifts inland.
Short-fused AMDs are possible with bouts of sub-VFR due to convection. Fog is possible tonight as well, generally inland of the terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SCT showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the area waters the next couple of days which could lead to locally hazardous marine conditions. Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions are expected with E/SE winds 10-15 kts over the Atlantic waters and around 10 kts in the Gulf. A light westerly wind is expected over the Gulf waters during the afternoon on Wednesday. Seas generally 2- 4 ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf.

BEACHES
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains across the Atlantic beaches through this evening due to persistent easterly flow. The high risk will remain across the Palm Beaches through Wednesday due to a lingering swell, while conditions slightly improve at Broward and Miami-Dade beaches as the SE flow weakens, however an elevated threat will remain through much of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 73 84 74 84 / 30 40 20 20 West Kendall 70 86 70 86 / 30 40 20 20 Opa-Locka 71 86 72 87 / 30 40 20 20 Homestead 71 85 72 84 / 30 30 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 73 83 74 84 / 40 40 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 72 84 73 84 / 40 40 20 20 Pembroke Pines 72 86 73 87 / 40 40 20 20 West Palm Beach 70 84 70 84 / 40 40 20 20 Boca Raton 71 85 72 85 / 40 40 20 20 Naples 71 86 71 87 / 20 20 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Naples, Gulf Of Mexico, Florida, Tide feet

Marco
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Tue -- 12:47 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:43 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:08 PM EDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:28 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

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