Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Lely, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:24PM Saturday June 23, 2018 12:01 AM EDT (04:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:32PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 354 Pm Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Tonight..West southwest winds 5 knots nearshore and west 5 to 10 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning... Then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming east southeast after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night and Tuesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..East southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 855 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 22 2018
Synopsis..High pressure ridging into the central and southern gulf will gradually build northward by the end of the weekend into early next week. This will result in the current moderate onshore wind diminishing by the end of the weekend. Seas will also begin to subside of over the gulf waters by the end of the weekend in response to the decreasing winds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lely, FL
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location: 26.09, -81.8     debug

Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 230019
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
819 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

Showers and a few thunderstorms have been slow to wind down early
this evening. As of 815pm, some activity was located over broward,
eastern hendry, glades, and southwestern palm beach, with isolated
activity around miami-dade. I made some adjustments to pops for
the rest of the evening based on latest radar and short-term model
trends. Generally increased pops slightly for most of south fl
through the evening hours. Even though most of the activity will
wind down by late evening, can't rule out an isolated late night
shower or storm on land or over the waters as moisture
levels pwats are quite high over the region.

Prev discussion issued 736 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

the winds will be light and variable tonight into Saturday morning
before going west northwest around 5 to 10 knots Saturday
afternoon. Vcsh will continue for all TAF sites through 02z this
evening before going dry tonight into Saturday morning. The east
coast TAF sites will see vcts for Saturday afternoon with vcsh for
kapf TAF site. The ceiling and vis will remain inVFR conditions
through Saturday, but could fall down into MVFR or even ifr
conditions with the passage of the showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday afternoon.

Aviation... 54 bnb
prev discussion... Issued 332 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

as expected, showers and storms formed today and have recently
been migrating eastward. Expect scattered to numerous storms
through the rest of this afternoon for the eastern counties, with
the greatest concentration likely palm beach county. A few showers
and storms could persist until an hour or two after sunset before
most of the activity diminishes this evening.

The weather through the end of next week is forecast to be typical
diurnal convection, with a focus on either coast, depending on the
overall wind flow for the day.

The 500mb pattern for the weekend shows a trough over the
southeastern u.S. However, the trough axis may stay far enough
north to have little affect on south florida. There is a chance it
could dig slightly further south, which may help to enhance any
convective activity over the region this weekend.

Otherwise, the bermuda high well to our east will meander around the
central atlantic and fluctuate in strength. The west winds being
experienced over south florida today will persist into Saturday, as
the high continues to bulge into the gulf of mexico. This would help
to enhance the gulf coast sea breeze again on Saturday. This would
make the eastern half of south florida more likely to see
convection. Expect a similar pattern Saturday as today, expect rain
chances will be higher on Saturday because pwats will be higher.

Pwats of 1.75 to 2 inches today will increase over the weekend to 2
to 2.35 inches. This keeps plenty of moisture in the area for
convective activity. The west winds will also bring the higher
maximum temperatures to the interior and east coast again tomorrow
before the storms get going. The heat index may reach to around 105
in portions of the interior and in the eastern counties.

As for thunderstorms, general thunderstorms are currently forecast.

500 mb temps should range between -6.5c and -7.5 most of the week,
with occasionally slightly cooler air aloft. This would make hail
unlikely, and if it does occur, small at best. With a light steering
flow for the week, showers and storms may have very little motion to
perhaps around 10 miles per hour. There may also be some
backbuilding. Either case may lead to some urban flooding concerns
of roadways in poor drainage and low laying areas this weekend into
early next week. Also with the light flow, waterspouts may also be
possible over any of the south florida waters for the next several

By Sunday, the surface high splits, with a weaker high center over
the northeast gulf and the atlantic high bringing more of a
southerly to southeasterly flow. This will allow for the atlantic
coast sea breeze to become more dominate, shifting the convective
activity back to the western interior and gulf coast. Even so,
models are indicating a high chance of convection for nearly all of
south florida Sunday and Monday.

The easterly flow is forecast to persist through the end of next
week. Moisture will remain quite prevalent over the area, and
pops will remain high, especially interior and west coast next


an area of high pressure, with a westward extended axis, will
bring a southwest wind to the area through tomorrow. By Sunday, a
weak high will develop over the northeast gulf, and the high
pressure center to the east will turn the wind southeasterly for
the remainder of the forecast period. Either way, showers and
thunderstorms, initiating daily over the mainland, may affect the
adjacent coastal waters as they move in the overall flow. Some
night time showers and storms are also possible in both the
atlantic and gulf waters of south florida. Seas are forecast to
run up to 2 feet, with occasional seas to 3 feet in the atlantic
waters. The wind may increase to 10 to 15 kts from the SE next
week. Therefore, look for an increasing risk of rip currents for
atlantic beaches early next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 76 89 75 88 40 70 50 60
fort lauderdale 79 89 77 88 40 60 50 60
miami 78 90 77 88 40 70 40 60
naples 79 91 77 90 20 50 20 70

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 98 abh
discussion... 98 abh
marine... 98 abh
aviation... 54 bnb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 3 mi49 min 85°F 89°F1016.2 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi76 min 79°F 77°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 39 mi43 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 85°F 1015.7 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 39 mi61 min 91°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 42 mi61 min 91°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL4 mi68 minWNW 410.00 miFair86°F79°F80%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW53SW3W5CalmSE3SW4W5W4S5W7W6W7W9W10W10W12W12W10W11W6W8W5W4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmSE4W5W6W7NW9NW10W11W11W12NW8W8W8W7W7W6W5W5
2 days agoSE4E4E4E6E4E6E5E5SE5SE6SE54CalmW65W9W8W9W8NW8NW6NW4NW4NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Gulf Of Mexico, Florida
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Sat -- 03:24 AM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:37 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:12 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida
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Sat -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:11 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:11 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.