Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laguna Vista, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday May 25, 2019 6:51 AM CDT (11:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:22AMMoonset 11:32AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 414 Am Cdt Sat May 25 2019
.small craft should exercise caution until 10 am cdt this morning...
.small craft advisory for winds in effect from 10 am cdt this morning through this evening...
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to around 20 knots in the late morning through afternoon. Choppy bay waters building to rough bay waters in the late morning through afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 20 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening. Rough bay waters subsiding to choppy bay waters in the late evening.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy bay waters in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy bay waters subsiding to a moderate chop on the bay after midnight.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 414 Am Cdt Sat May 25 2019
Synopsis..Adverse marine conditions will continue along the lower texas coast courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient. Small craft exercise caution and small craft advisory are likely to be needed through the next several days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laguna Vista, TX
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location: 26.14, -97.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 251124 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
624 am cdt Sat may 25 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Only initial conditions were changed for this taf
cycle.VFR to MVFR continue to be forecast with moderate to
breezy surface winds and no convection.

Prev discussion issued 404 am cdt Sat may 25 2019
short term (today through Sunday): no significant changes have
occurred to the large-scale synoptic pattern, and therefore, the
forecast for this time period will be very similar to the one issued
for 24 hours ago. 500 mb high pressure centered over the panhandle
of florida will remain the dominant weather factor over deep south
texas and the rio grande valley for the weekend. With this
protective dome in place, and an influx of drier air steadily moving
into the bro cwfa from the east to the point that precipitable water
values will fall to near an inch, dry weather will prevail with no
showers and thunderstorms anticipated. Meanwhile, at the surface,
with high pressure over the gulf of mexico interacting with thermal
low pressure situated inland over mexico, breezy onshore winds will
occur, making already above normal daytime high and overnight low
temperatures feel even hotter.

Meanwhile, at the local beaches, with the memorial day holiday in
place and large swells approaching from the southeast, a high risk
of rip currents and corresponding rip current statement will be in
place until around sunset this evening.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday): the heat beat GOES on
right through the end of may, with the more interesting question
whether 2019 can become the warmest hottest on record in most
areas by the time we reach next Friday (see climate section below
for an update).

The big picture in the overall pattern to end may has changed
little: memorial day will see the back edge of the northeast-
southwest elongated mid level ridge centered over the northern
gulf coast florida panhandle continue across the texas coast with
a nice pocket of very dry air settling in... Then hanging on into
Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, the edge of an ejecting shear axis
from the persistent southwest u.S. Trough slides across west texas
then on into north and east texas by Wednesday. This should help
fire up convection on the sierra madre each evening, and there is
an outside chance that some of this could graze zapata and perhaps
jim hogg county. That said, the ability of any convection to slide
that far east will likely be held off by the back of the ridge
which never quite breaks down... So will continue to not mention
rainfall during this period.

Thereafter, the ridge flattens across the southeastern u.S. And is
squeezed southward across the entire gulf of mexico by Thursday
and next Friday and farther back into northern mexico, eventually
reaching toward baja california. This should finally start to
relax the "valley wind machine" for a couple of days anyway but
there's no notable change in the sensible weather as the
atmosphere maintains the dome of hot and rain-free conditions.

Deep tropical moisture may begin cranking up underneath the ridge
in broadening easterly flow, but this would favor the western
caribbean through the bay of campeche on into veracruz beyond this
forecast period.

For the sensible weather, then: more of the same through
Wednesday: hot, breezy to locally windy days and sultry nights
with a continued fresh southeast breeze. With aforementioned drier
air pockets Monday through Tuesday, expect a bit more sunshine
including between ih 69c and ih 69e which has seen a mix of clouds
and some sunshine late this week. Temperatures should have no
trouble reaching the mid to upper 90s just about everywhere except
the beach each day, and remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s for
much of the night before dipping just below 80 (rio grande valley
area) each morning.

For Thursday and Friday, winds should back a little to the east-
southeast and dip into more reasonable levels. But not seeing
enough of a signal to drop daytime temperatures any more than a
degree or two compared with Monday-Wednesday. Lows may dip a
degree or two given slightly lower winds.

The dry pockets will keep heat index values from surging too much,
with 100 to 105 the general rule by day. Evenings into overnights
are a slightly different story, with lower 80s temperatures and
mid to upper 70s dewpoints keeping "feels like" temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s well into each night and toward the wee
hours. The a c will still be humming.

Other issues of concern: for the beach, while tidal concerns have
eased with lower astronomical tides and persistent upshore flow
allowing departures from predicted to fall back to around 0.5
feet, the threat of dangerous south to north longshore currents,
and perhaps a few embedded "reverse" rips near the isla blanca
jetty, will close out the holiday weekend and likely continue into
at least Wednesday. Rip current statements may be extended or re-
issued as conditions warrant through Monday.

For those inland, moderate air quality due to continued southeast
flow of residual soot haze from agricultural burning in mexico
will continue to be a nuisance issue through Wednesday. East-
southeast flow thereafter may finally bring a deeper blue sky for
the end of the week along with "good" air quality.

Marine: now through Sunday: buoy 42020 reported southeast winds
around 19 knots gusting to around 25 knots with seas slightly over
6 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 250 cdt 750 utc. An enhanced
pressure gradient will continue to produce strong winds and rough
seas along the lower texas coast today, with small craft
advisories in effect. Tonight, and especially on Sunday, the
gradient will ease slightly, resulting in lighter winds and lower
seas. For this time period, small craft exercise caution is
likely, however, small craft advisories cannot be ruled out.

Sunday night through Wednesday night... Gradient between modestly
strong surface ridge along the northern gulf coast with daily
mountain troughs near between 995-1000 mb over north central
mexico will keep gusty south southeast winds going over the warmer
gulf waters... Slightly lower in the nearshore waters where winds
will be knocked down by a relatively robust marine layer based on
upwelling of cooler waters in the persistent south southeast flow.

This means flirting with small craft advisory winds each overnight
in the gulf (18 to 22 knots) with plenty of wind waves and a
persistent 3 to 4 foot swell and 7-8 second swell period likely.

Winds and seas will do a diurnal dip each afternoon but not enough
to improve conditions for comfortable trips out for small craft.

Laguna madre winds will also flirt with 20 knots each afternoon
before dipping back to 15 knots and gusty overnight until just
before daybreak. Caution wording will be most likely here for most
of the period. Wednesday night should see some improvement but
still moderate level winds seas chop as the gradient continues
even as winds back a tad to the east southeast.

Climate... As of this morning, brownsville had pulled within 0.2
degrees of the 2003 record. Harlingen had moved into 4th place and
was closing on on 3rd while mcallen moved up to number 8 in a tie
for 7th. Looking back of the prior record from 2003, the big
difference this year from then was the end of the month, where
temperatures actually fell a bit below average after a hot first
half. This year features a hot start and a briefly cool spell with
the may 10-14 cloudy locally stormy period. But the sultry nights
have brought daily averages to 5-6 above normal since the 19th,
and these levels will continue at 4-5 above through the 31st, all
but ensuring that many stations will be at or near new may records
when all is said and done.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... High rip current risk through this evening for txz256-257-351.

Gm... Small craft advisory for winds from 10 am this morning to 7 pm
cdt this evening for gmz130-132-135.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for gmz150-
155-170-175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 6 mi40 min SSE 11 G 14 80°F 81°F1014 hPa
BZST2 8 mi40 min SSE 11 G 13 78°F 80°F1013.3 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 8 mi40 min SSE 12 G 14 1014.3 hPa
RLIT2 8 mi40 min SE 18 G 22 83°F 82°F1013.7 hPa
PMNT2 30 mi40 min 80°F 84°F1013.6 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 47 mi40 min SE 17 G 20 80°F 82°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for South Padre Island C.G Station, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX3 mi59 minSSE 138.00 miFair79°F73°F85%1013.1 hPa
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX18 mi59 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F77°F88%1013.1 hPa
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX22 mi60 minSE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F75°F88%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from PIL (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:20 AM CDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:15 PM CDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.1000.10.30.50.70.91.11.21.31.31.31.31.21.11.110.90.80.70.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas (2)
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:36 AM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:07 PM CDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.20.20.30.30.40.60.70.91.11.21.31.31.31.21.21.11110.90.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.