Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM   Moonset 4:18 PM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

FXUS62 KMFL 051844 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 244 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface high pressure centered near New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Aloft, a trough extending from an area of low pressure centered over northeastern Canada will exit into the Atlantic while a southern stream shortwave trough moves eastward through the southern Mississippi River valley. The overall pattern will allow for a persistent easterly wind flow to continue even as the surface high is pinched east and south to start the week.

Warm temperatures will continue as the moist tropical airmass continues to hold over the region. With the easterly flow, Southwest Florida will reach the lower 90s for the afternoon highs and the Atlantic sea breeze will help keep Southeast Florida in the mid to upper 80s.

Morning Atlantic showers will transition to inland and Southwest Florida thunderstorms for the afternoon with the retreat of any remnant convection back to the coast with the sea breeze. While the thunderstorms should be more of the garden variety, there is some cooler air aloft which could allow for some stout convection where boundary collisions occur.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually weaken and shift southeast by the mid-week period, resulting in initially easterly low-lvl flow veering more southeasterly while decreasing in magnitude. At the mid-lvls, ridging over the GOM will build NEwrd with the ridge axis largely positioned overhead by Wed/Thursday. Friday into Saturday the aforementioned ridge will flatten in response to a northern branch shortwave shifting into the eastern US, while surface low pressure and its associated cold front will also move towards the area. Low-lvl flow will veer more SWrly ahead of the boundary on Friday, with the decaying front moving near or perhaps over the area on Saturday.

In terms of rain chances, Tuesday will feature a similar pattern to the last several days with isolated activity possible the east coast earlier in the day and isolated-scattered activity possible in the Interior and SW Florida later in the afternoon. The proximity of the ridge should then maintain mostly dry conditions Wednesday-Friday. Rain chances on Saturday will depend upon the strength of the frontal boundary by the time it reaches our latitude. Given that the mid-lvl wave is passing well to our north, would expect the boundary to be frontolytic by the time it reaches SFL, so am largely maintaining PoPs only in the 15-30% range at this time, with the highest chances in the Lake region.

As mid-lvl heights rise and the low-lvl flow veers, first more SErly and then eventually SWrly by Friday, temperatures will warm over the area. Thursday-Saturday will likely be the warmest stretch of the year thus far with widespread highs in the 90s, with mid 90s possible (especially over the Interior). Although there should some be some mixing down of drier air aloft, peak heat indices could also reach triple digits for the first time in 2024 for portions of the area.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR through much of forecast period, except for bouts of sub-VFR this afternoon at APF due to showers/storms. E/ESE wind around 10-15 kt with higher gusts. Gulf sea breeze may impact APF with onshore flow.

MARINE
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with easterly surges at time, especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty winds in and around shower/thunderstorm activity. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. During easterly wind surges, conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
conditions.

BEACHES
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend. The risk may remain elevated through at least early week, especially across the Palm Beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 75 85 75 86 / 10 20 10 20 West Kendall 72 87 71 88 / 10 20 10 20 Opa-Locka 73 87 73 88 / 10 20 10 20 Homestead 74 85 74 86 / 10 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 75 84 75 84 / 10 10 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 74 85 74 85 / 10 10 10 20 Pembroke Pines 74 88 74 89 / 10 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 72 85 71 86 / 10 10 10 20 Boca Raton 74 86 73 87 / 10 10 10 20 Naples 71 90 72 89 / 40 20 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:25 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:35 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:55 PM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Nassau
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:00 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:14 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:39 PM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

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