Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:38PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:19 AM EST (08:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 949 Pm Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated showers in the morning.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..South southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers likely through the night. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. North northwest swell 3 feet in the evening. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night and Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 930 Pm Cst Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis..Light southeasterly winds this evening will begin to gradually increase to moderate late tonight and Thursday as high pressure shifts east and low pressure develops and moves toward the marine area from the west. Winds become west to northwesterly behind the front late this week into this weekend. Small craft advisory expected over much of the marine area from late Thursday through early Saturday due to strong winds and rough seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, FL
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location: 26.21, -81.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 130620
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
120 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Aviation
High pressure will be weakening through the day as a strong low
pressure system develops over texas. This is forecast to turn the
wind to the SE later today, and pick up to 10 to 15 kts across the
area. Cloud cover is forecast to remain in place over the region,
but also remainVFR. Some isolated shra may also be possible along
the atlantic coast, with the best chances near kpbi.

Prev discussion issued 727 pm est Wed dec 12 2018
update...

temperatures are falling into the 60s this evening, with lessening
winds. No changes to this evenings forecast, as a few showers are
possible on east coast areas later tonight, otherwise quiet
conditions prevail.

Prev discussion... Issued 406 pm est Wed dec 12 2018
discussion...

short term (tonight through Friday night)
wind has turned easterly today as high pressure moved into the
atlantic. This has allowed for slightly warmer temperatures and
increased moisture. Maxima have still been about 5 degrees below
average for this time of year. Over the next 24 hours or so,
ridging will continue to push further east and florida weather
will become increasingly impacted by developing lopres over texas.

Flow will become southerly and strengthen as the work-week comes
to an end. A few showers can't be ruled out especially northeast
Thursday and Thursday night, but most areas will remain dry, with
temperatures moderating to seasonable warmth.

Friday and Friday night, although now only 48-72 hours out, still
hold an unusual amount of uncertainty in regard to timing of a
cold front that is expected to eventually move through the region.

Although GFS suggest an earlier FROPA Friday night early Saturday,
but ECMWF and NAM suggest delayed FROPA into Saturday night. Have
trended slightly later in the forecast grids for FROPA time, now
toward Saturday morning, which represents a blend consensus of the
guidance. Based on this forecast timing, the bulk of showers and
thunderstorms would hold off until Friday night, with only low
chances during the day Friday. Regarding risk of strong
convection, nearly unidirectional shear should be quite
significant, but instability will be waning Friday night and the
best dynamics lift will be north of the region. Still, there
appears to at least some risk of some strong wind gusts in the
projected convective band Friday night, especially over northern
portions of south florida. Needless to say, this risk and its
evolution based on refinements to FROPA timing, will be closely
monitored.

Long term (Saturday through Tuesday)
aforementioned cold front will move through this weekend, bringing
an end to shower and thunderstorm chances as well as some
cooler drier air. The timing differences have already been
mentioned, but by Sunday at the latest, the front should have
cleared the region.

Into early next week (after fropa), high pressure returns and nw
will winds prevail, allowing for a dry and pleasant conditions,
along with cooler temps.

Marine... Seas of up to 7 feet will continue into early evening on
atlantic waters, where a small craft advisory remains in effect
until 7 pm. Thereafter, seas and winds will likely remain at
cautionary levels tonight, before becoming more southeast at 10 to
15 kt Thursday. Ahead of a week-end storm system, south and
southeast wind will increase Thursday night into Friday, and this
may necessitate an additional small craft advisory.

Although a low chance of showers will exist beforehand, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Friday into Friday night as a
cold front approaches.

Beach forecast... High risk of rip currents due to NE swell
combined with E SE wind of 15-20 mph is in effect for atlantic
waters through Thursday evening. This risk may continue into
Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 71 84 69 30 10 20 50
fort lauderdale 76 73 82 71 20 10 20 60
miami 79 72 83 71 10 10 20 60
naples 79 68 80 69 10 0 20 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 23 sbk
discussion... 23 sbk
marine... 23 sbk
aviation... 13
beach forecast... 23 sbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 6 mi50 min ENE 5.1 G 7 61°F 67°F1019.6 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 14 mi95 min 58°F 54°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 30 mi50 min E 5.1 G 7 60°F 66°F1019.6 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 48 mi80 min 67°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL7 mi27 minENE 710.00 miOvercast60°F54°F80%1019.1 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL24 mi27 minENE 410.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE7NE6NE10NE10NE12NE11E11NE8NE8E12E9E8E7NE7NE6NE5E4E5NE3NE7NE4NE7E7
1 day agoN3NE6N6NE6N6N6N8N7N8
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NW76NW3N4N4N6NE5NE6N6NE3CalmNE3
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Tide / Current Tables for Naples (outer coast), Florida (3)
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Naples (outer coast)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:37 AM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:26 PM EST     2.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.12.32.32.11.81.40.90.50.30.20.40.81.21.72.12.32.221.71.41.21.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:07 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:54 PM EST     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:15 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.70.50.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.20.40.810.90.70.50.40.20-0.2-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.