Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:39PM Thursday March 21, 2019 7:33 AM EDT (11:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 248 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..North northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..North northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..North northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and north 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northwest in the evening. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 418 Am Cdt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis..A moderate to strong offshore flow following in the wake of a cold front moving southeastward across the gulf will gradually diminish. A light to moderate westerly to northerly flow develops later today and persists through Friday. An onshore flow returns Saturday afternoon and strengthens Monday as a cold front approaches. A moderate to strong offshore flow follows in the wake of the cold front Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, FL
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location: 26.21, -81.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 210653
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
253 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Discussion
Mfl's 21 00z sounding shows a much drier atmosphere relative to
the past few days across the region. Here are the pw values from
the past 48 hours -
19 00z sounding : 1.61 inches - above 90th percentile
19 12z sounding : 1.81 inches - above 90th percentile and tied the MAX moving average
20 00z sounding : 1.63 inches - above 90th percentile
20 12z sounding : 1.33 inches - above 75th percentile
21 00z sounding : 1.15 inches - just above average
within the past 36 hours (from 19 12z to 21 00z), a 0.66 inch
difference in pw values can be seen. Model derived pw values are
forecast to drop even more, especially as the next cold front
passes. This means that the widespread rain showers plaguing the
region for the past two days should finally come to an end by
later tonight.

For today, a cold front will trek across the region before passing
offshore later this afternoon. The higher pops look to stay across the
east coast metro and atlantic waters before clearing up over land by
the late afternoon to early evening hours. Isolated rain showers are
still possible across the atlantic until early Friday morning. High
pressure will swiftly move in across the region into Friday,
keeping conditions drier and cooler for the remainder of the
week.

The coolest nights are forecast for tonight into Friday morning and
Friday night into Saturday morning. Lows for tonight will be in
the low to mid 50s over most of south florida except for the
southeastern areas where it will be in the mid to upper 50s and
west of lake okeechobee where it will be in the upper 40s. In
concerns to wind chills, apparent temps will be in the mid to
upper 40s across the lake region, upper 40s to low 50s across the
central interior and palm beach county, and low to mid 50s across
both coasts. Lows for Friday night will range from the upper 40s
to lower 50s over the interior and west coast metro areas to lower
to mid 50s over the east coast metro areas, except mid to upper
40s west of lake okeechobee. Wind chills Friday night look to be
in the low to mid 40s across the lake region, mid to upper 40s
across the central interior, upper 40s to lower 50s across palm
beach county and the west coast, to low to mid 50s across the east
coast.

Over the course of the weekend, the aforementioned high pressure
will slowly slide eastward into the western atlantic allowing for
a more easterly wind flow regime. Both GFS and ECMWF have a weak
shortwave trough venturing across south florida Sunday morning,
but a dry air mass, stable model derived lapse rates, and
essentially negligible low-level convergence will work together
to keep conditions mostly dry.

Early next week, low pressure should develop over the tn river valley
and eventually eject off the carolina coast. This will allow for
a cold front associated with the low to move southeast into
northern florida and potentially into south florida. This in turn
will allow for more of a southwest wind flow over south florida
bringing back some low level moisture leading to a slight chance
of showers mainly across the east coast metro areas.

Marine
Ne winds of 10-15 kt will slowly back from the N today before
backing from the NW overnight as a cold front passes through the
region. Consequently, winds over all atlantic waters will pick up
to 20-25 kt overnight tonight and winds over the gulf will pick
up to 15-20 kt. These breezy winds look to stay around until late
Friday morning, though cautionary winds will continue across the
atlantic until Friday afternoon. The winds will then swing to an
easterly direction this weekend while decreasing to less than 10
knots. Breezy conditions look to return Sunday.

The northern atlantic waters will remain in the 5 to 7 ft range,
with occasional 8 ft seas, today into Friday morning before
slowly decreasing to 4 to 6 ft by Friday evening into Saturday
morning. The atlantic waters will then decrease to 4 feet or less
this weekend. The gulf waters of south florida will remain at 3
feet or less late this week into this weekend.

Therefore, the current SCA in effect for the northern atlantic
waters has been extended through 10 am Friday morning and a new sca
has been issued for all atlantic waters from midnight tonight
through 10 am Friday morning. Scec will prevail for the gulf
waters this evening into Friday morning.

The tide levels along the atlantic beaches are running about 1 ft
over the predicted astronomical tides. Naples is running about
half a foot over the predicted astronomical tides due to the
super full moon. These tide levels will lead to some minor ponding
along the typical vulnerable areas along the east coastlines and
portions of the west coastlines during high tides through tonight.

High tides for miami harbor entrance
today - 9:44 am
tonight - 10:11 pm
high tides for lake worth pier
today - 9:00 am
tonight - 9:28 pm
high tides for naples bay
today - 2:10 pm
tonight - 2:29 am

Aviation
Focus for convection should remain over the atlantic waters within
the vicinity of some east coast terminals. Convection should begin
to trend down by mid-morning withVFR generally expected through
the period. Some brief bouts of sub-vfr possible with convection.

Drying trend expected today with cloud cover diminishing clearing
by the end of the period.

Beach forecast
A moderate risk for rip currents will prevail across all atlantic
beaches today due to a NE swell with an increasing threat along
the gulf beaches as winds back from a more N NW direction. Over
the weekend, the threat of rip currents will be increasing along
the atlantic beaches and decreasing along the gulf beaches as the
winds shift from the E again.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 76 53 74 53 30 10 0 0
fort lauderdale 77 55 75 57 30 10 0 0
miami 78 56 76 56 20 10 0 0
naples 76 56 74 53 10 0 0 0

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 10 am edt Friday
for amz651-671.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Friday for amz650-670.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 03 fell
marine... 03 fell
aviation... 02 rag
beach forecast... 03 fell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 6 mi39 min NE 6 G 8 63°F 72°F1015.9 hPa
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 13 mi99 min N 9.9 G 11 64°F 1016.3 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 14 mi108 min N 5.1 61°F 52°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 30 mi39 min NNW 4.1 G 7 62°F 70°F1016.2 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 48 mi93 min 71°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL7 mi40 minN 410.00 miA Few Clouds62°F52°F70%1015.8 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL24 mi40 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F53°F78%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN7NE8N8NE12NE7E7N65N6N4N7NE6NE7NE12
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----------NE14NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:47 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:12 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.932.72.11.40.60-0.2-0.10.41.11.92.62.92.82.41.60.90.2-0.2-0.20.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:00 PM EDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.310.5-0.1-0.6-1.1-1.4-1.3-0.9-0.20.61.21.41.20.80.2-0.3-0.7-1.1-1.2-0.9-0.40.41

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.