Wednesday, March29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:44PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 1:04 PM EDT (17:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:37AMMoonset 8:35PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 941 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Winds south southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..NEarshore, southwest winds around 5 knots becoming south southeast after midnight. Offshore, west winds around 5 knots late in the evening becoming variable winds less than 5 knots,...then becoming south southeast around 5 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..NEarshore, southeast winds around 5 knots becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Offshore, variable winds 5 knots or less becoming west northwest around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Saturday night..North northwest winds around 5 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1025 Am Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis..Southerly winds and seas will begin to build late today and continue through Thursday evening ahead of a developing area of low pressure and surface cold front approaching from the west. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with this pattern with the best coverage occurring Thursday evening and late Thursday night. A few strong to severe Thunderstorms will be possible...mostly Thursday evening and late Thursday night. A light to moderate west to northwest flow is expected in the wake of the front on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, FL
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location: 26.21, -81.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 291427
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1027 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

The 12z mfl sounding indicated shallow moisture and light winds
near the surface, consistent with the patchy fog observed over
the interior this morning, and drier air in the mid and upper
levels. High pressure over south florida will continue to bring
mainly sunny skies and light southeast winds through this
afternoon. With an easterly flow pattern in place, maximum
temperatures should top out highest in the western interior,
where upper the 80s may reached. Made slight adjustments to the
short term winds and dewpoints to account for latest trends.

Otherwise, the forecast appeared on track.

Prev discussion /issued 801 am edt Wed mar 29 2017/

there will be light winds this morning withVFR conds. Aft
29/1600z, SE winds around 10 kt will develop along the east coast
with occasional higher gusts. These winds will dissipate aft
29/2300z, with the loss of diurnal heating. Expect few/sct fair
weather cumulus to form during the afternoon with bases around
3500 ft msl. Otherwise, generally clear. Along the gulf coast, a
sw sea breeze will develop early this afternoon and diminish by

Prev discussion... /issued 404 am edt Wed mar 29 2017/

today-Thursday: surface high center will slide just to our east
today, before weakening on Thursday ahead of the next system moving
east. Weak mid-upper level ridge sliding across the peninsula the
next two days will also help keep the overall atmosphere dry and
suppressed with continuing fair weather across south florida.

Weak pressure gradient will allow both sea breezes to push inland
both afternoons, though as low level flow becomes more southeast
Thursday the gulf sea breeze is not expected to push as far inland
as previous days. Can't rule out a shower or two with the sea breeze
collision given the warm afternoon temperatures, but chances look to
low for a mention in the forecast as of now. Patchy overnight fog is
possible over interior sections.

Highs will be in the low to mid 80s for east and gulf coasts, and
upper 80s to near 90 for the interior. Lows will generally be in the
60s, though some east coast locations may linger closer to 70.

Friday-Saturday: the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement
in the handling of the upper level low that is expected to cross
through the central plains today, and lift out through the tn/oh
valley and mid-atlantic late week. Both models have trended weaker
with the southern stream of this system, keeping a more robust
surface low further north. The net result is a slower and weaker
front that slides into the fl peninsula Friday and Saturday.

The bulk of activity associated with the front itself looks to hold
off until later in the day on Friday. However, gusty southerly
flow will increase low level moisture across the region, which
along with a robust 90-100kt jet crossing the peninsula, and above
normal daytime highs in the mid 80s will help generate a few
afternoon showers and storms. While models show the bulk of
activity over the gulf of mexico weakening substantially as it
nears south florida later on Friday, will have to watch for
potential of more organized convection holding together.

With the boundary slowing down, the threat for isolated showers and
a storm or two will linger into Saturday.

Early next week: models are now trending towards the frontal
boundary washing out across the region by Sunday rather than pushing
through, leaving some lingering low level moisture across the
region. However, Sunday does look to be the driest day of the
weekend with only isolated showers.

The southern stream jet remains active into next week with the next
upper level low swinging through the southern tier of the us with a
robust surface low expected to move into the tn/oh valleys Monday-
Tuesday. Though timing differs between the models, especially this
far out, it looks like we can expect unsettled weather as increasing
south-southeast flow brings deeper moisture back into the region.

Marine... Generally good boating conditions will continue with
east-southeast winds less than 10 kts today, then picking up out
of the southeast 10-15kts on Thursday. Gulf coast breeze will be
more active this afternoon, bringing winds around to the west-
northwest, with the stronger offshore component limiting, though
completely prevent the development of the gulf coast breeze

The approach of a frontal boundary on Friday will allow winds to
increase out of the south-southeast to 15-20kts over most of the
local waters. This will briefly bring seas up to 3-4ft over both the
gulf and atlantic, along with bringing the threat for showers and
storms Friday and Saturday.

Winds over the weekend look light and variable as the boundary
washes out in the vicinity, before increasing again by early next
week ahead of the next low pressure system.

Fire weather... With dry air in place and little, if any
precipitation expected across the region through Thursday,
afternoon rh values are expected to drop below 40% across the
interior for several hours both this afternoon and again Thursday
afternoon. For glades, hendry, and interior collier counties,
several hours of rh values below 35% can be expected. Although
fuels are quite dry, erc values remain below thresholds for most
areas and overall wind speeds are expected to remain less than 10
mph. However, a red flag warning will be needed in locations that
currently have lowered criteria due to enhanced fire concerns.

Preliminary point temps/pops
West palm beach 84 67 84 67 / 0 0 0 10
fort lauderdale 84 71 82 71 / 0 0 0 10
miami 85 69 84 70 / 0 0 0 10
naples 83 66 84 66 / 0 10 0 0

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... Red flag warning until 7 pm edt this evening for flz070.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 27/jt
discussion... 88/alm
marine... 88/alm
aviation... 27/jt
fire weather... 88/alm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 6 mi47 min 74°F1017.8 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 14 mi80 min SSE 5.1 82°F 66°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 30 mi47 min WSW 8 G 11 77°F 80°F1017.4 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 48 mi65 min 77°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL7 mi72 minSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F66°F62%1017.7 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL24 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair82°F59°F46%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW12W13W9W12W9W8NW7NW7NW4N3N3CalmCalmCalmSE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS7SW6SW11SW12
1 day agoE6SW13W9W9W10W7NW3N4NE5NE7E9E4E4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3NE3E334NW9
2 days agoE9E9E9NE9W8W6CalmCalmE9E6E6E5CalmNE3NE4NE4NE4NE4NE5NE6NE9E85E7

Tide / Current Tables for Wiggins Pass, Cocohatchee River, Florida
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Wiggins Pass
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Wed -- 02:31 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:29 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:28 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Wed -- 12:21 AM EDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:22 PM EDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:14 PM EDT     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.