Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 12:26 PM   Moonset 1:14 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of tonight - S winds 15 to 20 kt near shore - .except S 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 20 kt well offshore. NEar shore, seas 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Well offshore, seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft near shore and around 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - W sw winds 10 to 15 kt near shore - .except W sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt well offshore. Seas 1 to 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 3 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except W sw 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S sw in the morning. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Fri night - NEar shore, S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Well offshore, se winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S se 10 to 15 kt late in the evening. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - W sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

GMZ600 935 Pm Cdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate southwesterly winds, occasionally stronger well offshore, become westerly late tonight. A light to moderate westerly to northwesterly flow follows for Wednesday into Wednesday night, then becomes southerly on Thursday. The onshore flow gradually strengthens Friday into Friday night then diminishes Saturday into Saturday night and shifts to offshore.

FXUS62 KMFL 142340 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 740 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior sections of South Florida will quickly diminish as the evening progresses. This will allow for mainly dry conditions across most of the region during the overnight hours. While prefrontal convection over Central Florida will most likely stay north of Lake Okeechobee through daybreak, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled closer to daybreak. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s along the east and west coast.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Mid-level flow will become a bit more westerly tomorrow as the northern stream shortwave increases in latitude just a bit. This will open up a pathway for warm mid-level air from the Mexican Plateau to advect across the Gulf over south Florida. Southerly low-level flow today will advect abnormally warm maritime air across south Florida, but more directly tomorrow as winds take on a more southwesterly component as the surface low shifts east to the Mid-Atlantic coast. The anomalous SSTs and near surface air will surge an atypically warm and moist airmass across south Florida. This will most likely result in heat advisory conditions for a least a portion of south Florida tomorrow as heat indices exceed 105-108 degrees. While dewpoints will be higher along the west coast, temperatures will be higher along the east - having the same overall effect on the heat indices and thus the widespread threat.

As far as convection is concerned, this afternoon outflow from storms to our north will interact with the seabreezes and initiate convection across the Lake Region and Palm Beach county. Given the still somewhat cool mid-level temperatures, presence of 30ish knots of deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates, storms that develop have the potential to produce marginally severe hail and damaging winds. The front associated with the aforementioned shortwave will draw closer to north-central Florida tomorrow and a little more convection may drift into the Lake Region, but in general the isolated to scattered threat for storms will continue tomorrow. The weakening dynamics and warming mid-level temps may yield a slightly lower severe threat tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A frontal boundary could enter south central Florida by Thursday, briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures aloft will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday into Thursday which could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger through most of the weekend.
Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area- wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low associated with our aforementioned boundary begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid- Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat late in the period. If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period as southerly flow continues.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will gradually become more southerly during the overnight hours and will diminish to around 10 kts. These winds will then increase out of the SW by the middle of Wednesday morning across all terminals and they will be gusty at times through the afternoon hours. Shower and thunderstorm activity may increase late in the afternoon mainly near KAPF and KPBI as a weakening frontal boundary approaches from the northwest.

MARINE
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Southerly flow around Advisory levels will continue through today, turning southwest and remaining elevated through tomorrow as the pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure passing through the Southeast. Cautionary conditions should continue into the end of the week until the low completely passes.

BEACHES
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The high rip current risk today may have to extend into tomorrow as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues. The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 80 96 80 95 / 10 20 20 50 West Kendall 79 96 77 96 / 10 20 20 50 Opa-Locka 80 96 78 96 / 10 20 20 50 Homestead 79 94 78 95 / 10 20 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 81 95 79 94 / 10 20 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 79 96 79 95 / 20 20 30 60 Pembroke Pines 80 96 79 97 / 10 20 20 50 West Palm Beach 77 96 75 94 / 20 40 30 60 Boca Raton 79 95 77 96 / 20 30 40 60 Naples 80 89 78 90 / 10 30 20 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.

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Wiggins Pass, Cocohatchee River, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:48 AM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:19 PM EDT     0.14 knots Min Flood
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:29 PM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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