Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rio Hondo, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 10:27 PM CDT (03:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:05PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1000 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy bay waters.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy bay waters subsiding to a moderate chop on the bay after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis..Adverse marine conditions are expected along the lower texas coast through the next several days due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Small craft exercise caution and especially small craft advisory are likely during the entire forecast period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rio Hondo, TX
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location: 26.26, -97.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 212329 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
629 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Vfr is prevailing at this time, but MVFR is expected
to develop within the next few hours. Although surface winds will
diminish around sunset, they are expected to increase overnight
tonight. Windy conditions are anticipated tomorrow as cloud decks
transition from MVFR toVFR.

Prev discussion issued 312 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019

Very high to extreme heat indices or "feels-like" temperatures
expected Wednesday...

short term (now through Wednesday night): little change in the
recent hot and windy weather as the synoptic pattern remains
persistent. Mid-level trough over the western us and mid-level ridge
extending over the gulf remains in tact for the next 36 hours and
beyond. Guidance and raw model data show little to no change in
temperatures, dew points, thicknesses or heights as well as other
parameters to warrant any significant changes to the ongoing
forecast. If anything, will raise high temperatures a few degrees
for Wednesday with a slight 10-20 decameter increase in heights and
850mb temperatures progged to be 23-35c or about one degree warmer
than today as the ridge axis drifts westward. Pressure gradient
Wednesday is not expected to be as strong as Monday or today (in the
east) but remains respectable for another breezy to windy day.

A heat advisory for "feels-like" temperatures of greater then 110
degrees may be warranted for most of the rio grande valley and as
well as portions of zapata county at least 2 to 4 hours Wednesday
afternoon. The frontal boundary that is moving into zapata and
jim hogg county should retreat north or dissipate overnight
allowing for dew points to recover well into the 70s later tonight
with little mixing out tomorrow. Dew points remain elevated over
the gulf, 79 degrees at buoy 42020, and with the persistent
southeast fetch do not see any reason for dew points to lower.

Guidance and raw data agree in this reasoning.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday): as the steering flow
becomes more amplified towards the end of the week, low pressure
will deepen across the western u.S., resulting in a continuously
unsettled pattern the next several days. This will allow ridging
to build and retreat westward across the central gulf of mexico,
and bring hot and dry conditions to deep south texas. Models keep
surface dew points relatively high through the long term with
solid southeasterly low-level flow and little diurnal mixing. This
combination with hot afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper
90s would result in heat indices periodically exceeding 105f.

Though hot temperatures are common across deep south texas, we are
running several degrees above normal in some areas, so we want to
stress the importance of heat safety. Model time-heights show
moisture limited to below 850mb with strong dry air and subsidence
aloft, therefore, rain chances will generally be 5% or below each
day.

Marine (now through Wednesday night): pressure gradient has been
weakening over the laguna and gulf waters much of the late morning
and early afternoon allowing for the onshore flow to diminish, seas
however continue to be agitated and will likely remain elevated much
of the night. Have cancelled the SCA for the laguna madre but have
maintained the SCA for the gulf waters mainly for the elevated seas.

The hazardous marine conditions will continue to slowly improve as
the gradient is likely to maintain current strength which may allow
for the SCA to be cancelled before 7 am tomorrow morning. This is
likely to be temporary as pressure begin to lower out west Wednesday
afternoon and evening as the next upstream shortwave trough
approaches west texas inducing another southern plains low pressure
area. Sca's are likely for the laguna madre Wednesday afternoon and
evening and once again for the gulf Wednesday night, if not already
cancelled.

Thursday through Tuesday: a series of surface lows developing in
the plains and a surface high sitting across the northern gulf
will result in a tight pressure gradient through much of the long
term period. Small craft advisories will be possible through
at least Saturday. Models indicate winds should improve
thereafter, but small craft exercise caution conditions will be
likely.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt Wednesday for gmz150-155-170-
175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RLIT2 13 mi46 min SE 13 G 18 84°F 86°F1004.8 hPa
PMNT2 21 mi46 min 83°F 83°F1004.8 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 22 mi46 min SSE 11 G 14 81°F 81°F1004.9 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi52 min SSE 9.9 G 13 80°F 1005 hPa
BZST2 24 mi46 min SSE 8.9 G 11 80°F1004.1 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 38 mi46 min SE 18 G 22 82°F 85°F1004.2 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX8 mi96 minSE 1210.00 miOvercast85°F77°F77%1003.5 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX12 mi95 minSE 147.00 miOvercast84°F77°F80%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE11SE11SE9SE9SE12SE12SE11SE10SE12SE10SE9SE15SE18SE21
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:00 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:20 AM CDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:03 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.200.30.711.21.41.51.61.61.51.51.41.31.21.110.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas (2)
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:00 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:43 AM CDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:03 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.100.20.50.811.31.41.51.51.51.41.31.31.31.21.21.110.70.40.1-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.