Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naples Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:04PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 12:29 PM EST (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:03PMMoonset 9:20AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 1014 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and south southeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers late in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and north 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers through the night.
Friday and Friday night..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots nearshore and northeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday night and Sunday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 952 Am Cst Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis..Strong southerly winds switch to the northwest late this afternoon into this evening as a strong cold front moves through, with frequent gusts to gale force over much of the area. Showers and Thunderstorms will also be likely ahead and along the front with a few strong to severe Thunderstorms possible. The offshore flow gradually subsides to a light northerly flow by Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples Park, FL
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location: 26.28, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 231434
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
934 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Update
An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern across south florida through Wednesday afternoon bringing
mainly dry conditions to the region. There is a slight chance of
showers across the east coast as well as in the atlantic waters.

A cold front will approach the region late tonight into Thursday.

The storm prediction center has placed portions of northern and
western areas of south florida in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms. Out ahead of the front there will be a line of
showers with embedded thunderstorms. The timing of these showers
and thunderstorms is still uncertain as they may move through
slightly faster then what the latest model guidance is
suggesting. As of now, the northern and western areas for timing
is looking like early Thursday morning through the later portion
of the morning. For the east coast it is looking like after
sunrise through midday. We will continue to update the timing as
the frontal boundary approaches the region. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Any of the stronger
thunderstorms that develop may be capable of producing strong to
severe wind gusts with isolated areas of wind damage.

Prev discussion issued 624 am est Wed jan 23 2019
aviation...

a tight pressure gradient across the area continues to bring breezy
conditions to S florida. This will continue until a cold front
moves through on tomorrow. There are a few -shra on the atlantic
coast, but are sprinkles for the most part, so left out of the
tafs for now. Chances of shra should increase late tonight as the
front begins to approach the area. A few TS are also possible by
Thursday morning. There is a chance that some of the TS could
become strong tomorrow, with gusty wind as the main hazard.

Prev discussion... Issued 406 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Cold front could bring strong storms on Thursday
Discussion...

today is likely the final day of relatively quiet weather before
a more unsettled pattern begins over most of south florida. A
persistent southeasterly flow will combine with atlantic moisture
to produce some chances for light rain showers over the atlantic
waters and along the east coast today. Rain chances are expected
to increase as the front moves closer to the region tonight. The
parent surface low will be centered north of the great lakes in
canada with a mid-level trough extending south, along with the
surface front, into the gulf of mexico.

Not only are showers expected with this front, so are
thunderstorms. There is a possibility that the atmospheric
environment could support some stronger storms. The main storm
modes would be discrete cells well ahead of the front and a
quasi-linear convective system or squall line closer to the
frontal boundary. One factor raising some concern for stronger
storms are 0-1 km helicity values well in excess of 150 m2 s2.

The focus of the wind shear is highest over northern portions of
the forecast area around lake okeechobee. This will have to be
monitored as a strong to severe storm threat could emerge for late
tonight into Thursday with this system. The primary concerns would
be with strong to damaging winds and the potential for tornadic
activity.

As we enter Friday, the front will stall south and east of the
forecast area. This will allow some drier, cooler air to settle
over the region for a brief period of time. Unsettled weather
returns for Sunday as some surface tropical moisture from the
gulf of mexico and caribbean combines with a mid-level shortwave
trough to allow showers and thunderstorms to return to the
forecast Sunday into Monday. There is some divergence between
guidance on possible solutions in this time period. All seem to
have focused on a more southerly track over south florida and the
florida straits for the moisture. Some solutions are also
resolving a surface low developing (or an elongated trough) which
could raise thunderstorm chances for Monday. Once again, the
progress of this portion of the forecast will also have to be
monitored for strong storm potential in case the surface low were
to develop more vigorously than currently forecast.

As this disturbance moves out Tuesday, a reinforcing cold front
will make its way through the region. It could be a drier frontal
passage compared to the one earlier in the forecast though
additional moisture could be knocking on the door from the gulf
if the front stalls north of the region. Uncertainty this far out
in the forecast period is still high as minor changes to the
synoptic pattern could mean the difference between dry, cold air
over the region or warm, moist air. The potential for some very
cold air invading part of the state does exist in this portion of
the extended, but it is way too early to discern just how
impactful any cold air intrusion could be for south florida. Kept
a middle of the road philosophy for temperatures through the
period with a preference around the mean of the models.

Marine...

a persistent southeasterly flow will continue through the day with
advisory conditions continuing over the atlantic waters. The wind
should begin to diminish over the gulf waters and lake okeechobee
this morning, allowing conditions to slowly improve. As the front
moves across the region on Thursday, increasing shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected. A brief dry period to kick off
the weekend will eventually give way to the next disturbance late
in the weekend into early next week.

Beach forecast...

a high risk of rip currents will remain along the atlantic beaches
into Thursday thanks to a persistent southeasterly flow today that
will shift as the front pushes across the region tomorrow. Behind
the frontal passage, some of the gulf beaches could see a brief
elevated risk of rip currents on Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 77 72 79 55 20 30 60 40
fort lauderdale 77 73 79 58 20 40 60 50
miami 78 73 79 59 10 30 50 50
naples 80 68 74 54 0 30 70 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Thursday evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Thursday for amz650-651-670-
671.

Gm... None.

Update... 55 cwc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 10 mi96 min SE 15 G 23 74°F 1022.9 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 10 mi42 min ESE 14 G 24 75°F 64°F1021.6 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 17 mi105 min ESE 16 77°F 64°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 26 mi42 min ESE 11 G 17 76°F 64°F1021.3 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 49 mi90 min 66°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL9 mi37 minESE 15 G 2410.00 miFair79°F61°F54%1021.2 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL18 mi37 minSE 19 G 2410.00 miFair and Breezy77°F60°F56%1021.3 hPa
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL21 mi37 minSSE 16 G 2310.00 miFair77°F60°F56%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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E15E11E8E7NE6E8E8E9E7E8E8E6E8E8E10E12SE15
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1 day agoNE4N7NE7NE9NE8NE8NE5NE5NE5NE9NE11NE8NE9NE9NE7NE9NE8NE6NE8NE7E10E13E12
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2 days agoW16
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N7N5N4N5N4NE7N6NE8NE7NE8NE86

Tide / Current Tables for Cocohatchee River, U.S. 41 bridge, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:55 PM EST     1.36 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.1-0.5-1-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.10.71.21.41.20.90.60.2-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.20.30.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.