Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naples Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:36PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:20 PM EST (19:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:09PMMoonset 4:05AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 843 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Rest of today..South southeast winds 5 knots becoming west. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and north northeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and northeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 902 Am Cst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis..A broad surface ridge of high pressure over the south central plains states will shift east and become reinforced from the north central gulf states to the mid atlantic region through the Thursday. A moderate to occasional strong northerly wind flow will persist over the marine area through early Thursday then become east and build later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples Park, FL
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location: 26.28, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 201743
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1243 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Aviation
PrevailingVFR is anticipated through the TAF period. A few late
afternoon through mid-evening showers are possible around the
eastern terminals. Light winds under 10 kt will prevail, turning
onshore at times along both coasts this afternoon, before shifting
northerly and becoming near calm late this evening into tonight.

Prev discussion issued 920 am est Tue nov 20 2018
update...

webcams and surface observations confirm that fog has mixed out
across our northwestern areas, so cancelled the dense fog
advisory.

A stationary frontal zone to our north will be the primary forcing
mechanism for ascent today as it oozes south into the lake
okeechobee region. The modified 20.12z mfl sounding for this
afternoon suggests around 1000 j kg of SBCAPE will be present,
along with cooling temperatures aloft. While mid-level lapse rates
aren't particularly steep, freezing levels are a bit lower today,
suggesting a few thunderstorms will be possible. The best odds for
scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon is
across palm beach county and in the lake okeechobee region near the
front. A few storms today could produce gusty winds should they
develop more robust updrafts heavier cores, but this should be a
rather isolated threat. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
due to weak steering flow slow storm motions.

Elsewhere across south florida shower chances will be on the low
side (20-30 percent), with thunder less likely. High temperatures
this afternoon should remain a good 3-5 degrees above
climatological averages, ranging from the mid to upper 80s away
from the immediate coasts.

Prev discussion... Issued 629 am est Tue nov 20 2018
aviation...

vfr conditions should prevail, although a few late afternoon
through mid-evening showers are possible along the east coast as a
weak cold front moves in. Wind flow very light today and sea-
breeze dominate, thus nearly calm wind this morning becoming
onshore at less than 10 kt this afternoon, then light N calm
tonight behind the weak front.

Prev discussion... Issued 307 am est Tue nov 20 2018
discussion...

today and tonight: a few areas across the western interior may
see some shallow patchy fog this morning. A few spots have already
reported reduced visibility. Today, high pressure that has been
dominating our weather pattern will break down and erode this
morning allowing for a weak frontal passage across the area later
today. While we will not see a noticeable change in temps, there
will be an increase in low-level moisture to help increase rain
chances today. Scattered showers will be possible in the afternoon
an evening particularly over northern portions of the region
around lake okeechobee and the east coast. With diabatic heating,
there will be some weak buoyancy ahead of the front and low-level
instability, even though model sounding lapse rates are fairly
weak a few weak thunderstorms are possible. Therefore, have
introduced slight chance of thunderstorms over the lake
okeechobee region, the northern half of east coast metro and the
atlantic waters. Any storms that do develop will be fairly weak
with occasional lightning strikes as the main hazard.

Overnight, any remaining showers and storms will be focused over the
atlantic waters with temperatures in the low 60s around the lake
okeechobee region to mid 60s along the gulf coast, to around 70
degrees for the east coast metro.

Short term (Wednesday - Thursday): drier air and across the region
briefly on Wednesday with temps still in the mid 80s and just a
little less humid. For thanksgiving day forecast models differ on
the amount of moisture, precipitable water across the region. The
gfs is much more aggressive than the ECMWF with a shortwave
moving through the area with increased chances of showers and
potential thunderstorms however has been trending downward with
the last few runs. The ECMWF keeps the holiday drier with the vort
shortwave barely existent. Tending to lean towards the ECMWF at
this time with just a slight chance of showers for the holiday.

High temperatures on Thursday will be right around normal this
time of year in the low 80s.

Long term (Friday through early next week): Friday through the
holiday weekend will see temperatures rise as we move through the
weekend back into the mid 80s. A low pressure system across the
northern gulf and florida panhandle will have a cold front draped to
its south. As of now, the low will work its way up the eastern
seaboard and it looks like the front will stall across the lake
okeechobee region and not make it into south florida. With
moisture ahead of the front will keep a slight chance of showers
in the forecast through the weekend into early next week.

Marine...

a chance of showers throughout the forecast period with a
slight chance of thunderstorms today over the atlantic waters. Seas
will be generally 2 feet or less in the gulf and around 2 feet, up
to 3 feet in gulf stream, the next few days over the atlantic
waters. Northeasterly winds will increase Wednesday, higher seas in
the atlantic waters towards the end of the week with a northerly
swell.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 69 82 68 80 30 10 10 20
fort lauderdale 71 83 70 81 30 10 10 20
miami 71 84 70 81 20 10 10 20
naples 67 83 64 81 10 10 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 34 spm
discussion... 33 kelly
marine... 33 kelly
aviation... 34 spm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 10 mi87 min W 8 G 8.9 78°F 1018.4 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 10 mi33 min S 7 G 8 80°F 78°F1017 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 17 mi96 min 85°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 26 mi33 min W 7 G 8 77°F 76°F1017.1 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 49 mi81 min 77°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL9 mi28 minW 710.00 miFair82°F69°F65%1016.7 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL18 mi28 minW 710.00 miA Few Clouds79°F70°F74%1016.8 hPa
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL21 mi28 minNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F70°F74%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SW7SW5SW3SW3CalmNE6CalmE4E4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE65SE3SW3SW7W7
1 day agoNE7E9NE6NE6SE4SE7SE4NE4N4NE4N4NE5NE4NE3NE3NE5NE6NE6E9E8E7SE8SE84
2 days agoE10NE9NE6NE6NE5NE8E9NE8NE7NE6NE6NE6NE6NE4NE5NE6NE7NE8NE7NE7NE7E85E8

Tide / Current Tables for Cocohatchee River, U.S. 41 bridge, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:10 AM EST     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:06 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:57 AM EST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:06 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:36 PM EST     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:39 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:29 PM EST     1.07 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.7-1-1.2-1.1-0.7-0.10.50.91.10.90.70.40-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.30.20.7110.70.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.