Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 5:11 AM   Moonset 6:51 PM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of today - S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Wed - S se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except S se 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: se 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt nearshore and se 10 to 15 kt offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Thu and Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S se 2 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.Fri - S sw winds around 10 kt becoming W sw in the evening. Seas 1 foot. Wave detail: S 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Fri night - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers late in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms .

GMZ600 338 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday.

FXUS62 KMFL 072300 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 700 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A rather strong mid level ridge will extend through the Gulf of Mexico and build towards South Florida as a mid level trough departs further into the western Atlantic for the rest of today and into Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly continue to shift southeastward during this time frame.
The positioning of the surface high will promote southeasterly wind flow through Wednesday. With just enough lower level moisture in place, the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes will provide enough lift to support isolated shower and thunderstorm development where they interact with each other over interior Southwest Florida this afternoon into the early evening. With substantial dry air aloft, chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain very low.
However, heavy downpours cannot be ruled out with any storm that does develop. Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish later this evening due to loss of diurnal heating. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from around 70 around the Lake Okeechobee region to the mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

On Wednesday, as mid level ridging continues to build over the region, some drier air will work its way down into the lower levels.
This will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms very limited and many areas will remain dry throughout the day. With the ridge building, a warming trend will begin to take place as high temperatures soar into the upper 80s across the east coast metro areas to the lower to mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The Atlantic ridge of high pressure will shift south as a frontal boundary associated with a low in northeastern Canada pushes into the Atlantic. This will lead to the surface ridge axis sitting over southern Florida from mid to late week period which will enable a warming trend over several days with widespread 90 degree temperatures save for sea breeze cooled areas closer to the coast. Some inland portions of South Florida could see temperatures reach into the upper 90s, particularly on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will remain minimal, though some convection cannot be ruled out inland. The risk of heat illness will require monitoring Thursday through Saturday as heat index values start entering the triple digits. As drier air aloft mixes to the surface, relative humidity values across interior South Florida could drop into the upper 20 percent range on Thursday and Friday which could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions.

Late in the week, the next frontal boundary will move across the southeastern United States but it will lack the support to clear South Florida. Increasing moisture will lead to more shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend as the front settles over south central to southern Florida. Temperatures will cool slightly with the additional cloud cover and rainfall. Saturday could be more of a transition day where the temperatures could again reach well into the 90s, particularly over the east coast metro where the southwesterly to westerly wind flow and urban heat island could combine to present another day with a heat illness risk above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Winds become light and variable overnight before increasing in the morning out of the SE again around 8-10kts. At KAPF, winds will become SW again in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.



MARINE
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue through the middle of the week across most of the local waters. The exception to this will be over the Gulf waters where winds may shift to the southwest in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Winds will gradually become south to southwesterly across all local waters heading towards the end of the week as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through the middle of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less.

BEACHES
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The rip current risk will remain elevated throughout the rest of the week across the Atlantic Coast beaches with the highest chances of rip currents remaining over the Palm Beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 75 87 77 89 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 73 89 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 75 89 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 75 87 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 86 77 88 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 75 87 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 75 91 77 93 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 89 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 74 89 75 91 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 75 91 75 91 / 0 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Cocohatchee River, U.S. 41 bridge, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:21 AM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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