Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naples Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:58PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 9:20 PM EDT (01:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:10PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 303 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night and Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..East southeast winds around 5 knots nearshore and east 5 to 10 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..East winds 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 404 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis..A light southeast wind flow will continue through about midnight tonight followed by a moderate northeast wind flow in the wake of a weak front boundary moving off the coast by around Sunrise Wednesday morning. Northeast winds will build by Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday morning. Hazardous conditions for small craft will be likely in the wake of a strong cold front late Saturday night through early Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples Park, FL
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location: 26.28, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 170003
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
803 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Aviation
Showers continue to push ashore from the atlantic and that
activity is expected to continue overnight into the morning.

Convective coverage should shift as the day GOES on inland and to
the west towards apf by afternoon. Easterly flow with some gusts
to 20 kts can be expected again.

Prev discussion issued 754 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
update...

current radar shows isolated shower activity along the atlantic
coast moving quickly westward due to persistent easterly flow.

The latest observations indicate around 10 mph along the atlantic
beaches. The hrrr and the WRF prog an increase in shower coverage
over miami- dade and broward counties during the next several
hours. Thus, have increased pops in the latest update to reflect
chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorm in this
general area overnight. Otherwise, all other variables appeared on
track.

Prev discussion... Issued 416 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
discussion...

latest wpc analysis depicts an elongated 1022 mb surface high
stretching from the mid-atlantic to near bermuda. A stationary
front can also be noted from the carolinas down towards the
western gulf. Clockwise motion around the aforementioned high has
allowed for persistent breezy easterly flow across southern
florida. Observed winds speeds this afternoon have generally been
sustained 10 to 15 mph, gusting occasionally to 20 mph. This flow
regime has led to the highest maximum temperatures to develop
along the western interior, in the low 90s. Mainly upper 80s have
been reported along the east coast where the greatest influence
from the atlantic waters exist. Satellite derived pwat indicates
relatively dry air, with values only around 1.6". Showers have
been far and in between today as mostly dry conditions have
prevailed. Tonight, small scale models including the hrrr and hi-
res WRF show shower development, mainly over coastal areas of
miami-dade and broward counties as a weak impulse of enhanced
moisture moves over the area from the bahamas. Minimum
temperatures will range from near 80 degrees along the east coast
metro to mid 70s along the gulf coast. These values are around 3
to 5 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Wednesday through this weekend: both the GFS and ECMWF prog a
robust cell of high pressure to migrate west from its current
position and meander over the the florida peninsula through at
least Friday. This will again lead to deep layer easterly flow,
partly cloudy skies, and mainly dry conditions. Temperatures are
generally forecast in the upper 80s along the east coast metro and
low 90s inland and near the gulf coast. Record temperatures may
be just a few degrees shy of being tied, esepcailly on Wednesday,
at naples and west palm beach. Long range models begin to drop a
low pressure trough down by this weekend into early next week.

Though it may not make it all the way to our cwa, increasing
moisture and instability ahead of the front will at least help to
enhance our precipitation chances as it nears.

Marine...

high pressure centered east of the waters will continue to
provide moderate easterly wind through the week, with atlantic
winds occasionally increasing to around small craft advisory
levels, especially mid to late week. Seas will be 4 feet or less.

Aside from isolated passing showers, mainly in the atlantic, dry
weather will prevail.

Beach forecast...

a high risk for rip currents will likely develop early Wednesday
through the rest of the week for the atlantic beaches due to
persistent easterly winds. Swimmers should exercise extreme
caution given these expected conditions.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 78 89 77 88 20 20 20 20
fort lauderdale 80 88 80 87 30 20 20 20
miami 78 89 78 88 30 20 20 20
naples 75 91 74 90 10 30 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 02 rag
update... 11 hv
discussion... 27 jt
marine... 27 jt
aviation... 02 rag
beach forecast... 27 jt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 10 mi33 min 4.1 G 8.9 84°F 83°F1017.9 hPa
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 10 mi87 min E 8 G 11 86°F 1017.8 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 17 mi96 min 82°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 26 mi33 min E 5.1 G 7 84°F 85°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL9 mi28 minE 610.00 miFair83°F72°F70%1017.7 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL18 mi28 minE 810.00 miFair82°F73°F77%1018 hPa
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL21 mi28 minE 910.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E8E6E5E7E5NE7NE6NE5NE6NE6E8E12E9
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1 day agoN4CalmE3NE3E3NE4CalmE5NE4NE4NE6E7E7E10E12E11E10E10E9E12
G18
NW4CalmE6E7
2 days agoCalmNE3NE4N4NE7NE6E4E4NE4NE5NE3E8E8E8SE9E4W9W8W7W5NW6W5--W9

Tide / Current Tables for Little Hickory Island, Florida
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Little Hickory Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:31 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.822.22.32.42.42.321.71.41.10.80.60.50.60.70.91.21.51.61.71.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:04 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.55 knots Min Flood
Tue -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:07 PM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.10.30.60.60.40-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.4-00.30.50.60.50.60.60.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.