Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:42 PM   Moonset 2:23 AM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

FXUS62 KMFL 182312 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 712 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A hot and humid day is on tap across much of South Florida as a mid- level ridge continues to slide across the area, being pushed along by a shortwave moving along the northern Gulf states. The ridge will continue to keep conditions mostly dry, however, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations, primarily on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours. Steep low-level lapse rates and enhanced shear along the sea breeze could support stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail, although is viewed as unlikely.

With south-southwest flow and warming air mass from the overhead ridge, high temperatures today will peak in the mid to upper 90s across much of South Florida, with heat index values up to 110 possible. Heat Advisories have been issued for all counties due to the hazardous conditions. Anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside, and if you are required to be outside, take cooling breaks and stay hydrated.

On Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave and associated frontal boundary will slowly spread over the Florida Peninsula, kicking the ridge offshore into the Atlantic. This will lead to greater instability and better chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze develops. The extra instability assisted by the shortwave along with the trough ushering in cooler temps aloft (-8 to -10 deg C) could enhance severe thunderstorm potential. Strong to damaging wind gusts due to storm strength or downbursts plus small to large hail will all be possible. Conditions will be monitored tonight for adequate assessment of the hazards with any convective storms tomorrow. Overall, the highest chances for showers and storms will be in northern portions of South Florida as low level flow will be southerly. PoPs around 60-70% are forecasted for Hendry, Glades, Palm Beach and Broward counties with mostly 40-50% PoPs elsewhere further south. Additionally, even with the increased cloud cover and a slightly cooler air mass compared to Saturday, heat will yet again be a concern as south- southwest flow persists over South Florida for much of the day ahead of the frontal boundary. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s, with heat index values ranging from 103-108. Heat advisories may be needed yet again for certain areas.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

The upper level trough will slowly move eastward across the area in the early to mid week time frame. Several impulses will move across the area which will keep elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each day, with PoPs peaking during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. The trough will finally start to make some progress late in the week pulling away from FL which will reduce rain/storm chances overall, however widely scattered diurnal sea-breeze driven storms will still be possible through Friday.

Temperatures will remain above normal next week, however a more easterly flow will provide a bit of relief for the east coast metro.
Still looking at highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the east coast metro and low to mid 90s for the Interior and SW FL.
Overnight lows will be closer to climatological lows ranging from around 70 near the lake, to low/mid 70s elsewhere.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions likely at most TAF sites for this TAF period.
Showers and thunderstorms may continue at KPBI/KFXE until 01-02Z with MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Winds will be light and variable overnight with benign conditions. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms returns early tomorrow afternoon bringing the potential for poor vis and reduced ceilings.

MARINE
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the weekend with light to moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, mainly over the Atlantic waters, which

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 81 94 77 90 / 20 70 40 70 West Kendall 78 97 75 92 / 10 60 40 70 Opa-Locka 80 96 76 93 / 20 70 40 70 Homestead 80 96 76 91 / 10 50 50 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 76 89 / 20 70 50 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 93 76 90 / 20 70 50 70 Pembroke Pines 80 97 77 93 / 20 70 40 70 West Palm Beach 77 93 74 89 / 20 70 50 70 Boca Raton 78 94 75 91 / 30 70 50 70 Naples 79 91 77 89 / 20 50 40 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:12 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:20 AM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Nassau
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:57 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:30 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:42 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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Miami, FL,