Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 9:30 PM   Moonset 7:06 AM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

FXUS62 KMFL 262306 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 706 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 702 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Bumped up PoPs slightly for Saturday across the east coast for some spotty showers off the Atlantic and also along and off the Gulf coast later in the day where some convergence will likely kick off some showers over there. Otherwise, the rest of the near term forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper-level ridge is situated across the FL Big Bend and NE Gulf region as a sprawling surface high remains situated off the NE Atlantic coast. The 12mb gradient from the center of this feature to S FL is driving a breezy easterly flow across the region. However, the overall atmospheric profile remains on the dry side. Daytime heating has created a shallow well-mixed layer, and there is enough low-level moisture to continue supporting a low-level Cu field.
However, there is no sufficient depth to this layer. Throughout the column, ACARS soundings are only showing a PWAT value of 0.5in currently. Even the 12Z sounding only had a PWAT value of 0.9inches.
This is right on the border of the lowest 10th percentile.

Warm, breezy conditions will continue today and tonight in response.
Winds over the waters are likely to increase overnight as well as the gradient tightens even further. Overall, though, there is very little change in conditions for the next few days. A dry, stable airmass persists with a strong upper-level ridge locked in through early next week.

Throughout this time-frame, the surface high will gradually sink south, eventually settling off the FL coast. The prevailing easterly flow should veer more ESE at that point, and a slight increase in moisture is expected. A few more shallow showers are possible across Atlantic waters, perhaps making it into the east coast. However, the overall synoptic pattern will continue to support a mostly dry and stable airmass through the entirety of the period.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Breezy easterly winds expected to continue with speeds 10-15 kts through the overnight and then increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts during the day on Saturday.

MARINE
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Winds and seas are expected to continue increasing across Atlantic and Gulf waters this afternoon and evening, with hazardous conditions expected for small craft. This is expected to last through the weekend and potentially into early next week, especially across Atlantic waters. A few isolated showers are also possible across Atlantic waters, especially closer to the Gulf Stream.

BEACHES
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A gusty easterly flow continues to favor a high risk of rip currents at beaches along the Atlantic Coastline through the weekend.
Remember, if caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Dry weather continues into next week as a breezy easterly flow prevails. While soils are drying out, RH values are expected to remain above critical thresholds. There are no significant rain chances for the next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 72 82 72 80 / 0 10 10 10 West Kendall 69 81 69 82 / 10 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 71 82 71 82 / 0 10 10 10 Homestead 71 82 71 81 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 72 81 71 79 / 0 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 71 80 71 79 / 0 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 71 83 71 82 / 0 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 70 81 70 80 / 0 10 10 10 Boca Raton 71 81 71 81 / 0 10 10 10 Naples 67 87 69 87 / 0 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.

Pelican Harbour
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Fri -- 04:42 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:35 AM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:29 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:48 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2), Tide feet

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:39 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:32 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:27 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:45 PM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

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