Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manalapan, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:41PM Thursday April 18, 2019 12:42 PM EDT (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:58PMMoonset 5:21AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manalapan, FL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 26.3, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kmfl 181400
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1000 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Update
High pressure moving into the western atlantic has allowed winds
to turn more southeasterly. Precipitable water levels have risen
slightly and low-level moisture has moved in compared to the past
few mornings. The 12z mfl sounding shows this well and has a pwat
level of 1 inch this morning with still some drier air aloft. A
few showers have been developing over the atlantic and moving
across the east coast this morning. Showers will continue the rest
of the morning and begin to shift towards the interior as the sea
breezes develop along both coast this afternoon. The southerly
wind component will also allow temperatures to rise into the mid
80s along the east coast and around 90 degrees over the interior
and west coast.

Prev discussion issued 726 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
aviation...

vfr conditons will prevail across all TAF sites. Southeasterly
wind flow will increase this afternoon becoming gusty at times. A
few showers possible along the east coast this morning, but
coverage low enough to leave out of TAF for now. For apf, SW flow
will develop this afternoon with a gulf seabreeze developing.

Tonight bkn mid level clouds develop and winds remain southeasterly
around 10 kts.

Prev discussion... Issued 330 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
discussion...

today and tonight...

surface and mid-level ridging will gradually shift into the western
atlantic in response to a vigorously digging trough over the central
conus. This will allow low-level winds to turn southeasterly and
bring some low-level moisture poleward into our area. Shower chances
will initially begin for the atlantic waters and east coast this
morning, with the focus shifting inland towards the the interior
this afternoon along the atlantic sea breeze. Temperatures will be
on the warm side, with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the east
coast to the lower 90s over the western interior. Shower chances
should return tonight, and with plentiful cloud cover lows will
mostly be in the 70s.

Friday and Friday night...

a meridional flow pattern evolves aloft as large-scale troughing
encompasses much of the eastern conus. An associated maturing
surface cyclone will develop northeastward along the appalachians,
with the associated cold front sweeping through the central and
southern florida peninsula late in the period. Deep ascent tied to
increasing differential cyclonic vorticity advection and a mid-level
jet MAX will maintain a squall line in advance of the surface front
as it tracks across north and central florida during the afternoon
to early evening hours. One of the big questions at this juncture is
how far south into our area organized convection will be maintained
as the better upper support begins pulling away on Friday evening.

Dynamically, the pre-frontal environment appears supportive of
strong to severe thunderstorms (especially from the lake okeechobee
region north), given 0-3 km bulk shear values exceeding 40 kt and
strong deep layer shear occurring in association with the mid-
level speed max. Thermodynamically, things are a bit less
impressive, given decreasing MLCAPE during the evening and only
modest mid-level lapse rates.

Given the increasingly veering wind profile and frontal forcing
mechanism it appears that linear storm morphologies are favored
during the afternoon and evening (in the form of a squall line),
with some possibility for isolated to widely scattered storms
developing out ahead of it during the morning to early afternoon
hours. With regards to severe hazards, strong to damaging wind
gusts appear the greatest threat, with a conditional tornado
threat. The tornado threat is rather small, and would likely be
dependent upon the early to mid-day storms interacting with sea-
breezes or other locally generated vorticity sources. The main
window for possible severe thunderstorms should be from mid
afternoon through early evening, provided the isolated early day
risk mentioned above does not materialize. The thunderstorm threat
should be ending for all areas by mid to late evening as the line
of storms pushes offshore into the atlantic waters. The SPC day 2
severe weather outlook is in line with this thinking, with a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms over glades, northwest
hendry, and far northwest collier counties, with a marginal risk
across the remainder of south florida.

Look for rather warm temperatures on Friday afternoon as gusty ssw
winds prevail. This will allow highs in most areas to climb into the
upper 80s (even the east coast metro), with some lower 90s not out
of the question. Cooler air will filter in overnight behind the
front, with lows dropping off into the 60s for most areas.

Saturday through Wednesday...

look for dry and slightly cooler conditions early in the period
following the frontal passage. High pressure then builds back in at
the surface and aloft bringing onshore flow along with increasing
temperatures and humidity towards mid week. A few mainly light
showers are possible at times as well.

Marine...

breezy e-se flow is expected today, likely reaching advisory levels
late tonight into Friday for all waters with gusty s-ssw winds.

Winds will then veer NW behind the front on Saturday. A small
craft advisory for winds and waves will likely be needed for some
portion of this period. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin on
Thursday while becoming likely on Friday into Friday night, with
some stronger storms possible during this time.

Beach forecast...

there is a high risk for rip currents for the atlantic beaches
today. Breezy e-se winds and a NE swell will produce a moderate to
at times high rip current risk through midweek. An elevated risk
should then develop for the gulf beaches on Friday into the weekend
with NW winds behind the front.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 85 74 87 65 20 50 60 70
fort lauderdale 85 76 85 68 20 50 60 70
miami 86 76 86 68 20 50 60 70
naples 87 74 85 67 10 20 80 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 33 kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 94 mi43 min SE 14 G 17 79°F 1017.4 hPa (+0.0)

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL149 mi50 minSE 17 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds85°F70°F61%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from PMP (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrE11E7E11
G18
E9E11E8E11E9E8E10E6E7E8E9E8E7E7SE11SE10SE9SE12SE11SE18
G21
SE17
G21
1 day agoNE10
G16
E10NE9NE13NE11NE12NE11NE10NE10NE10NE7NE8E9E7NE6E6E7E7E5E7E8E8E9E8
2 days agoNW13
G20
W13NW10NW12NW5NW11NW8N6N6N4CalmNE3NE5NE7NE6NE6E8E6NE4NE6NE8NE7E11E10

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2)
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:04 AM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:13 AM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.5-0.1-0.4-0.20.41.22.12.732.92.41.60.80.1-0.3-0.20.31.122.83.23.32.92.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.10.50.30.51.122.83.43.73.532.21.40.70.40.511.82.73.53.93.93.52.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.