Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manalapan, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:52PM Thursday January 24, 2019 5:48 AM EST (10:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:49PMMoonset 9:46AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manalapan, FL
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location: 26.3, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 240845
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
345 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Strong to severe storms possible ahead of cold front today...

Discussion
A line of showers and thunderstorms is pushing eastward across
the gulf of mexico and the big bend of florida this morning. Ahead
of these storms, discrete cells of showers have developed in
prefrontal bands over portions of south florida. Rain chances will
increase as the morning continues and the front pushes closer. A
healthy low level jet and sufficient surface moisture will be
present this morning into the afternoon over portions of the
state to support strong storms. A special 09z upper air sounding
will soon shed some light on conditions this morning aloft ahead
of the front's arrival.

Instability and wind shear are present over the region this
morning and expected to remain for portions of the day before the
supporting features shift away. Before that shift of support away
from the region, there is a potential for strong to severe storms.

The primary focus of the strong to severe threat is strong winds,
including tornadic activity. The areas with the higher threat
today are southwest florida and the lake okeechobee region, which
remain under the marginal risk in the storm prediction center's
day 1 outlook.

Current thought is that the line of convection will push into
southwest florida this morning and continue eastward, moving
across the east coast metro areas in the afternoon, before
clearing into the atlantic by the evening. As the low level jet
departs, some weakening in the convection is possible. The coastal
interactions by the convection as it nears the east coast could
provide some localized convergence and shear that could also
produce some stronger storms in the afternoon.

As drier, cooler air moves over the region behind the front for
Friday, there could be some trailing high cloud cover. As the
front stalls to south and east by Saturday, it will act as a focus
for moisture. The next mid-level disturbance will emerge into the
gulf late Saturday into Sunday, helping to spur the frontal
boundary back northward. This additional moisture will allow rain
chances to increase and the potential for some thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out though the overrunning nature of the cloud
cover may help limit available instability for thunderstorms.

A reinforcing boundary will push through late Monday into Tuesday,
helping to clear out the disturbance and related moisture. A
second frontal boundary on Wednesday will ease into the region
with some divergence in potential solutions causing increasing
uncertainty to end the forecast period. The finer details of this
boundary, its timing, and available moisture could have impacts on
the forecast evolution over time for mid to late week. Currently,
south florida would remain in the warmer, moist sector capable of
supporting mention of rain chances. If this synoptic setup were
to change, so would the forecast. Preferred the mean of the model
blends for temperatures through the 7 day period.

Marine
Increasing showers and storms today as the cold front moves across
the waters. By Friday, the front should be clearing into the
atlantic with decreasing rain chances over most of the waters. The
dry period will be brief as the moisture returns and a disturbance
moves across the waters Sunday into Monday with additional rain in
the forecast.

Beach forecast
A high risk of rip currents along the atlantic beaches today.

Behind the cold front, the gulf beaches may see an elevated risk
of rip currents on Friday.

Fire weather
Drier air behind the cold front on Friday could allow portions of
south florida to experience relative humidity values in the mid to
upper 30 percent range on Friday afternoon. Wind speeds during the
driest periods of Friday afternoon should remain below critical
thresholds.

Prev discussion issued 110 am est Thu jan 24 2019
aviation...

a approaching cold front will bring increasing instability to the
region, allowing for the chances of shra and TS to increase later
this morning. Some of the TS may be strong with gusty wind, and a
very slight chance of a tornado, mainly north of a line from
apf over to pbi. The frontal passage currently looks to be late
this afternoon, into the evening hours.Behind the front, the wind
will shift to the northwest for the overnight hours.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 80 56 66 52 50 30 10 20
fort lauderdale 80 60 67 55 40 30 20 30
miami 80 61 67 56 40 30 20 30
naples 75 56 65 48 60 20 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz650-651-
670-671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
gmz676.

Discussion... 02 rag
marine... 02 rag
aviation... 13
beach forecast... 02 rag
fire weather... 02 rag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 94 mi49 min S 22 G 28 75°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL149 mi56 minS 11 G 207.00 miA Few Clouds76°F70°F82%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from PMP (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW9NW8N3N6NW434N10N13N12N11N10N9NW73N5--E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas (2)
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:24 AM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:40 AM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:10 PM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.30.5-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.10.71.62.42.92.92.61.910.2-0.4-0.7-0.50.10.91.82.42.7

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:20 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:36 AM EST     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:06 PM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.721.10.50.10.20.71.42.33.13.63.63.22.51.70.90.30.10.30.91.72.53.13.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.