Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 3:52 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Today - SW winds around 5 kt becoming W nw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Tonight - W winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Mon night - N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Tue - N ne winds around 5 kt becoming W nw in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - NEarshore, N nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming ne after midnight. Offshore, ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: N nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Wed - NEarshore, E ne winds 5 kt becoming se around 5 kt in the morning, then becoming sw in the afternoon. Offshore, E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming E se in the morning, then becoming sw in the afternoon becoming W nw in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - N ne winds around 5 kt becoming E late in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening. Thu - E se winds around 5 kt becoming W sw in the evening. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.

GMZ600 307 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Light and variable winds through Monday night will be followed by a light southeasterly to southerly flow Tuesday through Thursday.

FXUS62 KTBW 191242 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 842 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Broken band of weak showers over the I-4 corridor early this morning to slowly sag Sward as E Gulf convection is expected to move ashore through the afternoon hours. Early look at 12Z sounding showing low level inversion that is keeping the activity weak, but fcst CAPE values increase significantly with diurnal heating to keep the mention of strong to severe storms possible especially for well interior areas especially if E Coast seabreeze moves inland.

Another day of long period swell energy from the Yucatan Channel that is again producing 2-3 ft breaking waves and strong rip currents locally especially at SW facing beaches. Beach goes need to be aware this threat is real and there was a fatal drowning yesterday in Manatee County.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
BKN band of SHRA to move over the region this morning/afternoon with a slight chance of TSRA at terminals this afternoon with brief and localized MVFR cigs/vsbys thru around 21Z then improving trend expected this evening/tonight. SW-W winds occasionally gusty today then shift NW and weaken tonight.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Deep layer W-SW flow over the peninsula this morning south of a trough aloft extending from the Mid-Atlantic SW to the N Gulf Coast and an attendant frontal boundary draped across the SE U.S.
into the FL panhandle. The trough will very slowly progress E into the Atlantic over the next few days, with the surface frontal boundary working its way south across the peninsula today and Monday before clearing the state to the south on Tuesday. Ridging aloft builds over the area around mid week with surface ridging building along the E Seaboard before a few shortwaves push E across the TN/OH Valley regions late week and over the weekend, eroding the ridge while the surface ridge weakens slightly and shifts a bit E into the Atlantic.

For today expect an increase in showers and storms with the front pushing across the area, initially across Nature Coast locations this morning before spreading into central and eventually southern areas late morning through afternoon. Given the persistent W-SW flow expect greatest concentration of convection over the interior and E FL, however a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out across W FL as moderate-strong instability this afternoon coupled with sufficient shear will be supportive of stronger convection ahead of the boundary. SPC has highlighted the all of the CWA under a Marginal Risk with damaging wind and hail as the primary threats, with a Slight Risk over the interior covering parts of eastern Polk and Highlands counties for an increased risk of large hail. Activity should gradually wind down this evening as the front continues south, however with moisture lingering over the area and slow progression of the trough aloft PoPs will remain in the 30-40 percent range through Mon-Tue, with highest chances over the interior during the afternoons. The remainder of the week will feature PoPs around 20 percent or less as drier conditions will be likely with ridging over the area. Temps also warm during the latter half of the week as well, into the low-mid 90s for areas away from the immediate coast, after having been in the upper 80s-lower 90s today through Tuesday.

MARINE
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A frontal boundary slowly moving across the E Gulf today will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the waters. Weak high pressure gradually builds into the region by mid week with winds and seas slowly subsiding.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A front will move over the state with showers and thunderstorms for most areas today, followed by lingering rain chances on Monday and Tuesday mainly focused toward interior locations during the afternoons. High pressure and drier air will filter into the area mid to late week with warming temps.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 76 89 73 / 60 20 20 10 FMY 91 76 90 73 / 60 50 40 20 GIF 89 72 90 70 / 60 30 40 10 SRQ 89 75 89 72 / 60 30 20 10 BKV 88 69 89 65 / 50 20 30 10 SPG 86 78 88 76 / 60 20 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Little Hickory Island
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Sun -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:08 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Little Hickory Island, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:35 AM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:00 PM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:15 PM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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