Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 3:23 AM   Moonset 3:33 PM

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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 1152 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south early this afternoon, then becoming southwest late. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Monday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1152 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - Atlantic high pressure ridging into the northeastern gulf of mexico this weekend will slide south by mid week, with southeasterly winds becoming more southerly by Wednesday. Winds will turn onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. A few showers or storms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, winds will remain less than 15 knots with seas of no more than 2 feet.

FXUS62 KTBW 041239 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 839 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 826 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

There is more moisture in place across the area this morning. The 12z TBW sounding depicts 1.39 inches of PW. This is around a quarter of an inch more than yesterday mornings sounding. This value is also around the 75th percentile of early May PW climatology. Additionally, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s to low 70s across most of the peninsula.

The broader upper level pattern features ridging across the Caribbean northwards into New England. However, there is a weak shortwave across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This weak shortwave trough will move onshore around the time of peak heating and seabreeze activity. All of the above coupled with the higher than normal PW values should lead to the best chances for showers/storms that we've seen in several days. Chances for showers and storms will range from as low as 20% along the coast to as high as 50% across the interior. Highs today will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions persist across the terminals. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will develop later this afternoon (after 21z). A few of these showers/storms could impact the terminals. For now, have only mentioned VCSH at KRSW, KFMY, KPGD, and KLAL. Will continue to monitor conditions throughout the day to evaluate the need of VCTS/TSRA in the terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, with southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will drift south Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds becoming slightly more southerly. Wind speeds will remain below headline criteria. Rain chances will remain low, but a few sea breeze storms could drift into the waters each day during the afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Relative humidity may briefly drop to critically low levels each afternoon this weekend, mainly over the interior. However, wind speeds are not forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag Conditions. Otherwise, spotty high dispersion indices will be possible each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 73 89 73 / 20 20 30 10 FMY 90 70 90 70 / 40 40 40 20 GIF 91 70 90 69 / 30 20 50 10 SRQ 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 10 BKV 91 65 90 65 / 20 20 40 10 SPG 87 75 87 74 / 20 30 30 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Little Hickory Island, Estero Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Sat -- 03:06 AM EDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:00 AM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:46 PM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:31 PM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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