Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estero, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:25PM Monday June 26, 2017 4:36 AM EDT (08:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:19AMMoonset 9:54PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 344 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots then becoming north late in the evening, then becoming southeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming north late in the evening, then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 344 Am Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis.. A light pressure gradient and resulting winds will remain over the forecast waters through the middle of the week. Each morning will likely feature widely scattered storms developing in the pre-dawn hours and fading by midday as storms develop inland.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estero, FL
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location: 26.4, -81.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 260717
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
317 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
07z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows an amplified upper level
pattern over the conus... Comprised of ridging over the inter-
mountain west, and broad longwave troughing covering the country to
the east of the continental divide. The florida peninsula resides at
the base of this longwave trough underneath a weakening upper level
ridge. This ridge has kept a rather warm column aloft with meager
lapse rates, and somewhat tapered convection the past couple
of days. As the upper ridge begins to break down today into
Tuesday, we will see these mid-level thermodynamics improve
somewhat in the favor of deep convection, leading in
partial manner to a greater coverage of diurnal storms
compared to what we have seen in recent days. The 00z ktbw
sounding profile continued to show a rather impressive
subsidence inversion under the upper ridge around 600mb,
however, forecast soundings from all the reliable guidance
members show a weakening and eventual disappearance of this
warmer layer aloft during the next 12-18 hours. This all
results in slightly steeper lapse rates (widening cape
profiles) through the mid-levels.

At the surface... Subtropical ridge axis has been shifted southward
to the lower half of the florida peninsula, as a weak frontal
boundary lies across the northern peninsula. This front should not be
considered something with a change in temperatures, but for our
purposes will only act as a low level source of focus convergence as
it slowly migrates toward the i-4 corridor during today.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
Today... The surface gradient over our area is going to remain weak,
and this should allow the sea-breeze to form along the entire west
coast and push inland this afternoon.

The day starts out with a few storms lying offshore along the land
breeze, but generally a dry morning for the bulk of our area. Only
exception this morning might be up toward citrus levy county in
closer proximity to the surface front. Some indications that a few
showers forced along this boundary will migrate onshore into these
zones before midday. Otherwise, look for sct convection to develop
along the inland propagating sea-breeze by early mid
afternoon... With an eventual consolidation of storms inland from the
i-75 corridor this evening. This is how the pops will evolve through
the day in the forecast. The sea-breeze will eventually interact
with the surface front during the late day hours, and may very well
further enhance the convective coverage. As mentioned in the synopsis
above, mid-level temperature profiles will be more favorable toward
deep convection by this afternoon evening than we have seen in
previous days. In addition to higher coverage of storms, this fact
may also allow for a few more vigorous updrafts and stronger storms
as well. What is most uncertain later today is whether outflow moves
back toward the coast for a second round of later evening
convection. While the sea-breeze will be in place, it will not be
strong, and vigorous enough outflow will push back against it. This
will just have to be something that is followed through the day, and
hopefully some of the hires guidance will hint at its likelihood.

Look for a mix of Sun and clouds becoming mostly cloudy by the later
half of the afternoon evening hours as convection and convective
high level anvils overspread much of the region. High temperatures
reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s today.

Tonight... Evening convection slowly dissipates, with little left
over the landmass by midnight. The gradient remains quite weak
allowing a feeble land-breeze to form and move offshore. Should see
a few more late night storms form over the coastal waters,
especially offshore of the nature coast where some enhancement from
the now quasi-stationary surface boundary is more likely.

Depending on how the flow sets up, some potential to see a
few of these showers migrate back toward the coasts of
citrus levy toward dawn, and will represent this potential
in the forecast after 09z.

Tuesday... Fairly similar overall conditions remain in place. The
quasi-stationary frontal boundary will still lie across the
peninsula, but be washing out with time. The mid-levels will
continue to cool (perhaps another degree), further increasing the
thermodynamic favorability for deep convection. A generally dry
morning under a mix of Sun and clouds will become increasingly
active in terms of storms during the afternoon, with a consolidation
of storms inland by the early evening hours.

A more easterly synoptic flow is then expected to commence
beyond Tuesday, returning the best convective potential
back toward the florida west coast during the later part of
Wednesday and Thursday. More on this part of the forecast in
the long term section below.

Long term (Wednesday - Monday)
For the long term period, a typical summer time pattern will
continue over the region. Upper level ridging extends over the
bahamas westward through the florida peninsula and into the gulf of
mexico. This pattern will hold through the period with very little
variation through the week. On the surface, subtropical high
pressure near bermuda ridges west-southwest over southern florida. A
weak frontal boundary over northern florida washes out and
dissipates as high pressure moves off the southeast coast by
Wednesday afternoon. This will keep a general east-southeast wind
flow over the region through the week. Rain chances will be typical
for the summer time with 50-70 pops each day through the week.

Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages with upper 80's
during the day and overnight lows in the mid 70's.

Aviation (26 08z through 27 06z) Residual showers still
around early this morning. May see a brief showers at
klal ksrq through 09z... But no significant restrictions
expected. PrevailingVFR conditions through the morning
hours. The potential for showers and storms increase after
17-18z and move progressively inland through the later
afternoon hours. Brief restrictions can be expected at any
of the terminals with passing storms, but otherwise expect
vfr to prevail through the TAF period.

Marine
A light pressure gradient and resulting winds will remain
over the forecast waters through the middle of the week.

Each morning will likely feature widely scattered storms
developing in the pre-dawn hours and fading by midday as
storms develop inland.

Fire weather
No significant fire weather concerns are expected through
the next several days as relative humidity values remain
well above critical levels, the potential for wetting
rainfall remains high, and winds remain generally low,
outside of thunderstorms.

Fog potential... No significant area of fog or visibility
reduction are anticipated through the next several days.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 90 77 90 76 50 10 50 20
fmy 92 75 90 75 40 30 40 20
gif 92 74 91 73 60 60 70 30
srq 87 77 86 75 40 10 40 10
bkv 89 72 90 72 50 20 50 20
spg 89 78 90 77 50 10 50 20

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Synopsis short term aviation marine fire wx... Mroczka
long term decision support... Wynn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 17 mi49 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 78°F 90°F1017.8 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 19 mi49 min E 4.1 G 6 88°F1017.8 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 25 mi112 min NE 2.9 76°F 75°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL10 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair78°F73°F87%1017.8 hPa
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL13 mi44 minE 310.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1018 hPa
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL18 mi44 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F88%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from RSW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmE3CalmSE5SE7E74CalmNE36W7W6N9NW6SW6S5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE4E4E3E3SE5S7S6S5SE656S15
G18
SW6NW5NW3W5CalmCalmE5NE3CalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoNE4E4E5E4E6SE96SE7SE6SE10
G14
4S6SW7SW11SW9SW6SW8CalmE3NE3E3E4E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for Coconut Point, Estero Bay, Florida
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Coconut Point
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Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:52 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.40.91.31.61.71.71.61.51.61.722.42.83.13.23.12.72.11.50.80.2-0.2-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:47 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:16 AM EDT     -0.06 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:31 PM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.21.21.10.90.70.40.1-000.30.81.11.10.80.2-0.4-0.9-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.7-1.2-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.