Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 5:34 AM   Moonset 7:41 PM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

FXUS62 KMFL 081355 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 955 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 945 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Mid level ridging will continue to build across South Florida as the rest of today progresses. The PWAT values from the 12Z KMFL sounding came in at 1.32 inches this morning. This is lower then what it has been over the past several days as a drier air mass begins to push into the region. There may be just enough lingering lower level moisture around the Lake Okeechobee region to support an isolated shower or storm this afternoon where the sea breezes interact with each other. However, any activity that does develop will be short lived and very limited in coverage. Temperatures will continue to warm this afternoon as highs rise into the upper 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the mid to upper 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. Heat index values may approach triple digits in some interior sections of Southwest Florida this afternoon and will continue to be monitored as the day progresses.



SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Warm and dry conditions will be the story through the short term period as ridging builds over the region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be very limited between PWAT values dropping to around 1" and overall subsidence from the ridge. Under mostly clear skies, high temperatures today will soar into the upper 80s across the East Coast metro, with low to mid 90s across interior and Gulf Coast areas. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Thursday as the ridge continues to build in and the airmass heats up. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s along the East Coast metro and Gulf Coast, with mid to even upper 90s over interior areas. Heat index values may reach the triple digits in some areas, and will need to be monitored.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

As we wrap up the week, the surface ridge axis will remain sitting over South FL allowing for mostly sunny and dry conditions on Friday. The warming trend will to continue with widespread 90 degree high temperatures across the region. Some inland portions of South Florida could see temperatures reach the upper 90s. The heat indices will approach the upper 90s into low 100s, especially for the inland regions of the eastern counties.

The next frontal boundary will move across the southeastern United States late Friday as a Canadian upper level low and trough make their way into the eastern CONUS. With increasing moisture, it will lead to our next opportunity for showers and thunderstorm activity on Saturday. However, the front is expected to weaken as it progresses across the FL Peninsula. Therefore, current models are not forecasting much activity and rainfall associated with this front as it moves south and settles across South FL through the weekend. The EURO ensemble & Canadian are showing the most confidence in rainfall with 30-50% chance of rain across land and the Atlantic waters with less than 0.10" expected. Low confidence in specifics at the moment due to varying forecasts between the models.
Temperatures will cool slightly with the additional cloud cover and rainfall. However, Saturday appears it will be more of a transition day where the temperatures could again reach well into the 90s, most likely over the east coast metro. With heat indices approaching 100 again, caution needs to be taken when spending time outdoors with heat safety measures in place.

When looking further into the extended outlook, temperatures continue to remain above normal, in the 90s, with more active weather to begin the start of the new week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the southeast around 15z and will range between 10 and 15 kts this afternoon. At KAPF, winds will become southwest in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue through Thursday across most of the local waters. The exception to this will be over the Gulf waters where winds will shift to the southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Winds will gradually become south to southwesterly across all local waters heading towards the end of the week as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through the middle of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less.

BEACHES
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

The rip current risk will remain elevated throughout the rest of the week across the Atlantic Coast beaches, with the highest chances of rip currents remaining over the Palm Beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 89 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 90 74 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 89 75 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 87 75 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 88 76 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 89 75 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 89 75 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 90 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 89 75 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 91 74 89 76 / 0 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:06 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:03 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:01 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Eleuthera Island (west coast)
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:03 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:19 PM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eleuthera Island (west coast), Bahamas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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