Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:03 AM   Moonset 3:14 PM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

FXUS62 KMFL 041153 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 753 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 749 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Updated PoPs to more closely reflect this morning's shower trends.
Dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s across South Florida and sufficient moisture exists to support sea breeze convection later today. Refined the afternoon forecast a bit with respect to sea breeze showers and thunderstorms that should focus inland and then over Southwest Florida. Still kept mention of light rain in case additional Atlantic showers keep developing and moving ashore through the day. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with little in the way of additional updates anticipated through midday. Have a wonderful Saturday morning!

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

A rather benign weather pattern remains in place across South Florida today with continued light to moderate easterly flow with surface high pressure to the east. Southwest Florida has the best opportunity for any isolated showers or weak convection with the sea breeze today and Sunday afternoon.

An upper level disturbance advancing towards and into the Florida panhandle will open a small weakness in the upper level flow across the Florida peninsula from Saturday into Saturday night.
This weak upper level disturbance combined with an increase in the moisture profile between 850 and 700 mb should induce some slightly greater PoPs during Saturday afternoon into the 20 to 40 percent range. With the continued moderate easterly flow, this activity will be most favored across the interior/western portions of South Florida.

Expect for the afternoon highs to top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Surface high pressure stays focused to the east in the Atlantic, maintaining the light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow across the region. 500 mb heights begin to increase into mid to late week as upper level ridging will build into the region from the west.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day next week with eastern areas more likely to see any weak activity during the early afternoon hours with the inland progression of the sea breeze. The east coast breeze will continue to push further inland with slightly better chances for isolated showers or storms across Southwest Florida. The PoPs then look to diminish even more into late next week as the upper level ridge strengthens.

The temperatures also respond as afternoon highs could reach the mid to even upper 90s across interior locations by Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Generally VFR though brief bouts of sub-VFR are possible with morning Atlantic showers. APF will see onshore flow with the Gulf breeze and then the increasing chance of showers and storms.
Convection should focus west of the east coast terminals for the afternoon though some could linger and drift back to the Atlantic as the sea breeze retreats in the evening.

MARINE
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Besides occasional times of gusty easterly winds, anticipate for marine conditions to stay rather benign through the weekend and entering into early next week. Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. Winds are likely to peak in the 13-18 kts range out of the east and likely induce periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions.

BEACHES
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend.
The risk may remain elevated early next week, especially across the Palm Beach County beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 30 10 West Kendall 86 71 86 71 / 20 20 40 20 Opa-Locka 86 72 86 73 / 20 20 30 10 Homestead 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 83 74 / 20 20 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 30 10 Pembroke Pines 86 73 86 74 / 20 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 84 72 84 72 / 20 20 30 10 Boca Raton 85 73 84 74 / 20 20 40 10 Naples 88 71 89 71 / 40 30 40 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:31 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:01 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Eleuthera Island (west coast)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eleuthera Island (west coast), Bahamas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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