Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Myers Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:38PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:03 AM EST (09:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 847 Pm Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds around 15 knots then becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds around 10 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 847 Pm Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis..High pressure just north of the waters will continue to shift east to out over the atlantic overnight and continue east as a robust storm system forms in the southern plains. This storm system tracks east and drags a cold front over the gulf of mexico...into the east gulf waters Friday then across florida through Saturday. This system will bring Thunderstorms...strong winds perhaps to gale force...and high waves and swells. Winds and seas will begin to gradually subside Sunday as high pressure builds into the western gulf. Mariners are advised to check the latest forecast before making any end of week or weekend trips.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Myers Beach, FL
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location: 26.44, -81.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 130831
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
331 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Friday...

Short term (today - tonight)
The atlantic ridge will remain in control today with southeasterly
low-level flow bringing warmth and moisture back into the region.

Skies will be mostly cloudy, but much of that will be high clouds
which will allow some sunshine through.

By tonight, we'll begin to see thicker clouds and some showers and
storms approaching from the northwest. It does look like the leading
edge of some of the heavier showers and storms will make it to
portions of the nature coast prior to sunrise.

Mid term (Friday - Saturday)
A large complex storm system will move slowly east along the
northern gulf coast states Friday, then northeast through the
southeastern u.S. On Saturday. Models are doing a better job with
the upper-level low placement, but haven't yet come to a consensus
on how far east of the parent low the best dynamics will set up. If
we discount the very slow nam, the primary area of stronger storms
will still be northwest of our area around 7 am Friday. Best guess
at timing for severe threat would be 10 am through 10 pm
starting in the northwest and progressing southeastward. Gfs
and ECMWF show 50 to 55 knot southerly jet at 925mb
approaching the nature coast before 1 pm. There will be some
weakening of the jet as the low center begins to fill and
pull away to the northeast, but not enough to negate the
threat of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornados.

Forecast soundings show mostly weak cape, so don't expect to
see any severe hail.

The pattern will transition to more of an elevated event Friday
night as large-scale lift continues east of the upper-trough and
moisture remains plentiful. The threat for severe storms should be
coming to an end, but rain with embedded thunderstorms will
continue. It should be noted that some models are slower,
extending the threat for severe weather into the evening
hours.

On Saturday, the upper-level low will begin to pull northeast away
from the region, but heights will still be lowering as the trough
axis approaches. There will still be enough lift for showers,
especially during the first half of the day. Drier air aloft and low-
level cooling should put an end to the thunderstorms.

Long term (Saturday night - Wednesday)
The upper-level trough axis will finally cross the region Saturday
night while low-level cold advection begins. There will still be
clouds around, and perhaps a few showers, but for the most part
rains will come to an end.

The complex storm system will be in the mid-atlantic states by
Sunday with a ridge of high pressure beginning to build across the
northern gulf and into florida. A weak secondary front will be
pushing through the southeastern states Sunday night, but will have
little moisture to work with.

Monday through Wednesday will feature high pressure sliding by to
our north. The airmass will be cool and dry, with 40s and 50s at
night and 60s and 70s each day.

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail with a bkn ovc CU sc cloud deck around
4-6 kft through the period. Winds will be light out of the east-
northeast less than 6 knots, becoming east-southeast 5-10 knots by
Thursday afternoon. No other aviation impacts expected.

Marine
Models trended slower with the complex area of low pressure
forecast to move eastward across the northern gulf coast
states. Still, a long fetch of 30 to 35 knot westerly winds
will result in large swells moving eastward toward the
florida gulf coast.

A band of strong thunderstorms, some severe, will be moving
across the western gulf Thursday night and through our
waters Friday and possibly into Friday night. Southerly
winds of up to 20 knots will be in place ahead of the line,
then winds will shift to the southwest and west behind it.

While the winds may not quite reach small craft advisory
levels, the combination of wind waves on top of the
approaching swells will result in seas of up to 8 feet on
Saturday. Seas should gradually diminish on Sunday but large
swells will still be coming in. Conditions will improve on
Monday.

Fire weather
No fire weather concerns. Locally heavy rainfall is expected
with rounds of showers and storms between Friday morning and
Friday night, with some showers continuing through Saturday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 75 65 73 64 10 40 90 90
fmy 79 65 78 68 0 10 50 90
gif 75 64 75 65 10 20 80 90
srq 77 66 75 65 10 30 80 90
bkv 75 64 74 62 10 50 90 90
spg 72 65 73 64 10 40 90 90

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term mid term long term marine fire weather... Jillson
aviation decision support... Wynn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 15 mi33 min NE 5.1 G 7 61°F 66°F1019.8 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 23 mi33 min ENE 2.9 G 6 61°F 67°F1019.4 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 30 mi78 min 59°F 55°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL11 mi70 minENE 610.00 miOvercast59°F54°F83%1020 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL13 mi70 minENE 410.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1019.7 hPa
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL22 mi70 minENE 710.00 miOvercast60°F54°F80%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE7NE6NE6NE8NE8NE9E9E8E9E8E10E8E4E4E4E5E4E6E6E5E5E6NE5
1 day agoNE3NE5NE3NE4N9N8N9N12N11
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NW9N9N10N8N6NE7NE5E3E3NE3NE4CalmCalmNE4
2 days agoNW10NW8NW8N8N7N8N6NW8
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N14N10N8N8N6N7N7NE4NE5NE6NE5E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Matanzas Pass (fixed bridge) Estero Island, Florida
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Matanzas Pass (fixed bridge) Estero Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:20 AM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:16 PM EST     1.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:35 PM EST     1.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.822.22.32.32.11.71.20.70.30-00.10.40.81.11.41.71.81.71.61.41.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:07 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:54 PM EST     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:15 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.70.50.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.20.40.810.90.70.50.40.20-0.2-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.