Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Stream, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:31PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:02 AM EST (09:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:39AMMoonset 11:06PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 340 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..South southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..West northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday night and Monday..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 340 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis..Small craft exercise caution across the atlantic waters on Thursday as e/se winds prevail. Seas will be 4-5 feet with occasional 6 feet seas. Cautionary conditions can potentially become hazardous Thursday night and Friday as winds veer southerly and pick up ahead of the next front. A few showers are possible the next few days over the waters, with more widespread showers and storms with the front late Friday into Saturday.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas up to 6 feet off the coast of palm beach county mid to late morning then decreasing through remainder of day. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 13, 2018 at 1200 utc... 3 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east of port everglades. 5 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Stream, FL
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location: 26.46, -79.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 130840
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
340 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Discussion
This morning's low temps are running around 10-15 degrees warmer
than this time yesterday morning as winds return from the east and
moisture content rises. With this in mind, Thursday's high temps
are forecast to reach the upper 70s across south florida with a
few near 80 temps in the SW region, right about average (perhaps a
degree or two higher in some spots) for this time of year. As
winds continue to veer to a more southerly direction throughout
the day today, an influx in low-level moisture will advect into
the region with derived pwat values approaching 1.25 inches. A few
showers can't be ruled out today through tonight, especially the
ne portions of the cwa, but most areas will remain fairly dry.

Friday into this weekend still remains the hot topic for weather
debate. As high pressure continues to push eastward into the
western atlantic and a rather impressive low pressure system
across tx swings into the gulf states, south florida weather will
be in a state of limbo as models continue to diverge. Now only
about 36-60 hours out, it is a bit unusual that both the global
models (gfs and ecmwf) continue to differ on fropa. GFS has
delayed a bit to a more Saturday morning to Saturday afternoon
fropa with both ECMWF and NAM agreeing on a Saturday night into
Sunday morning fropa. 06z wpc guidance for 12z Saturday morning
puts the cold front smack dab in the center of the cwa. Because of
this, grids are continuing to split the difference of the exact
timing of fropa, now trending towards Saturday morning to Saturday
afternoon time frame.

Based on this forecast timing, the bulk of showers and
thunderstorms would hold off until Friday night, with only low
chances during the day Friday for the east coast and a slight
chance for the NW portions of the cwa. Regarding risk of strong
convection, 06z SPC analysis for day 2 placed central florida and
northern florida in a slight risk, with a marginal risk touching
the northern fringes of lake okeechobee, central glades county,
and the far NW tip of hendry county. 0-3 km shear values are
approaching 40 kt across the regions as well, though the best
dynamics lift still favor to the north of the region. Regardless,
there appears to at least some risk of some strong wind gusts in
the projected convective band Friday night into Saturday morning,
especially over northern portions of south florida. Needless to
say, this risk and its evolution based on refinements to fropa
timing, will be closely monitored.

One things for certain is that the aforementioned cold front will
move through this weekend, bringing an end to shower and
thunderstorm chances as well as some cooler drier air. The timing
differences have already been mentioned, but by Sunday at the
latest, the front should clear the region.

Into early next week, high pressure returns and NW winds will
prevail, allowing for dry and pleasant conditions, along with
cooler temps back below climatological norms. Dry air will
continue to filter in through at least mid week.

Marine
Small craft exercise caution across the atlantic waters on
Thursday as E SE winds of 15-20 kt prevail. Seas will be 4-5 feet
with occasional 6 feet seas. Ahead of a week-end storm system,
south and southeast wind will increase late Thursday night into
early Friday morning, and this may necessitate an additional small
craft advisory for the atlantic waters.

Although a low chance of showers will exist beforehand, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Friday into Friday night as a
cold front approaches.

Aviation
High pressure will be weakening through the day as a strong low
pressure system develops over texas. This is forecast to turn the
wind to the SE later today, and pick up to 10 to 15 kts across the
area. Cloud cover is forecast to remain in place over the region,
but also remainVFR. Some isolated shra may also be possible along
the atlantic coast, with the best chances near kpbi.

Beach forecast
High risk of rip currents due to NE swell combined with E SE wind
of 15-20 mph is in effect for atlantic waters through Thursday
evening. This risk may continue into Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 78 69 82 69 30 10 20 60
fort lauderdale 78 72 82 72 10 10 10 50
miami 78 71 82 70 10 10 10 50
naples 78 66 80 67 10 10 40 80

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for
flz168-172-173.

Am... None. Gm... None. &&
update... 13
discussion... 03 fell
marine... 03 fell
aviation... 13
beach forecast... 03 fell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 11 mi33 min E 14 G 22 72°F 76°F1020.7 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 27 mi21 min SE 13 G 19 74°F 1019.4 hPa60°F
PEGF1 27 mi39 min ESE 20 G 22 74°F 1019.3 hPa
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 52 mi33 min ESE 8.9 G 13 73°F 72°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL17 mi70 minESE 17 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F57°F59%1019.6 hPa
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL18 mi70 minE 1110.00 miOvercast70°F57°F66%1020.1 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL21 mi70 minESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F59°F66%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------N5N7N5NW5CalmE5E10SE6E12E12E12E12E6E8E10E12E13
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NW15NW15--NW10N10N8N7NW9NW7

Tide / Current Tables for South Delray Beach, ICWW, Florida
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South Delray Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:21 AM EST     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:50 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:54 PM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:30 PM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.42.32.11.71.30.90.70.60.81.21.72.12.52.62.42.11.71.310.80.811.4

Tide / Current Tables for Delray Beach, ICWW, Florida
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Delray Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:24 AM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:58 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:57 PM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:38 PM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.42.42.21.81.410.70.60.81.11.62.12.52.62.52.21.81.410.80.811.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.