Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harlem Heights, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:40PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 2:31 PM EST (19:31 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 2:47AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 1030 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
This afternoon..Northeast winds around 10 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming northwest late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..North winds around 5 knots becoming east around 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light to moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots. Seas building to 4 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds around 20 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas building to 10 to 14 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds around 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Seas 12 to 16 feet. Bay and inland waters very rough. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots diminishing to around 20 knots toward morning. Seas 12 to 16 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 20 knots becoming north around 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas subsiding to 6 to 10 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1030 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis..Light winds and seas will remain over the waters through Wednesday, with no headlines expected. The next complex storm system will move into the region Thursday bringing showers and Thunderstorms and overall hazardous conditions. Winds are forecast to increase to near gale force Thursday night into Friday, with seas increasing up to around 14 feet or higher as well. Winds will start to diminish Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday, but waves will be slower to subside.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harlem Heights, FL
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location: 26.49, -81.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 181145
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
645 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Update
Patchy fog, some locally dense, early this morning will lift and
dissipate by mid-morning with mostly sunny skies expected for the
remainder of the day as high pressure moves across the eastern
states. Light northeast winds will shift to northwest near the
coast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops with temperatures
climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Overall the current
forecast looks good with no morning update planned.

Aviation
Patchy fog early this morning will give way toVFR conditions for
the rest of today into early tonight. Some more patchy fog with
localized MVFR ifr visibilities will be possible late tonight
into early Wednesday morning. Light and variable winds this
morning will become northwest during this afternoon.

Marine
Light winds and seas will remain over the waters through Wednesday,
with no headlines expected. The next complex storm system will move
into the region Thursday bringing showers and thunderstorms and
overall hazardous conditions. Winds are forecast to increase to
near gale force Thursday night into Friday, with seas increasing
up to around 14 feet or higher as well. Winds will start to
diminish Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday, but waves
will be slower to subside.

Prev discussion issued 259 am est Tue dec 18 2018
discussion...

a quasi-zonal flow remains over the region early this morning with
ridging to our west. At the surface, high pressure is centered to our
northwest, with a low-level northwest flow in place across the local
area. For today, the ridge aloft will build over the region, with
dry weather and temperatures a couple of degrees warmer. The ridge
will continue to shift west of the area through Wednesday as a
deepening trough moves into the central u.S. The surface reflection
associated with this feature will form along the northern gulf
coast southern plains area with a warm front, along with increasing
moisture spreading eastward, leading to showers and thunderstorms for
Wednesday afternoon across mainly the southern half of the forecast
area. Overall, Wednesday will see increasing clouds with temperatures
continuing to warm up by a couple of degrees.

For Wednesday night through Thursday, the surface low will move
through the southeast, with the warm front shifting north of the
area and the cold front passing late Thursday into Thursday night.

Widespread rainfall is likely, with some localized flooding
possible. In addition, we continue to see signals in the models
highlighting the possibility of some severe weather with the squall
line that comes through on Thursday. In particular, the NAM earlier
this afternoon was showing about an 80-knot low-level jet moving
into the region, and the 00z run really has not changed all that
much. The GFS does not show quite as strong of a jet, but still
shows increasing shear over the area, similar to the nam. We still
have some time to watch this, but models have been fairly consistent
over the past couple of days in showing the possibility of some
severe weather and, indeed, the storm prediction center is already
showing a 15 percent chance for severe storms for day 4 (Thursday).

Winds will shift to the west Thursday night into Friday, likely
increasing to gale force. Take this increase in winds plus the
increased wave action into account and we have a very good setup for
some coastal flooding. We will also likely keep clouds and some
shower activity around through Friday before high pressure and drier
air finally moves in for the weekend.

Fire weather...

no fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy,
shallow ground fog will be possible over the next few nights, mainly
over inland areas, but no widespread fog is anticipated.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 69 53 71 63 0 0 20 90
fmy 72 55 74 65 0 0 20 60
gif 71 51 74 62 0 0 10 70
srq 69 54 70 64 0 0 40 80
bkv 70 47 73 62 0 0 10 90
spg 67 57 70 63 0 0 30 90

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation marine... 69 close
prev discussion... 05 carlisle & 11 mckaughan
upper air... 19 hurt
decision support... 24 hubbard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 11 mi38 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 70°F 68°F1017.5 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 26 mi38 min W 5.1 G 5.1 65°F 70°F1017.6 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 33 mi107 min 71°F 54°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 49 mi32 min NW 8 G 8 64°F 67°F1018.2 hPa (-2.4)53°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL7 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair73°F50°F44%1017.8 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL10 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair73°F50°F44%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW5NW6NW5W4W3NW3NW6N4N4N4N5N8NE3CalmNE3NE3CalmE6E653NE6Calm
1 day agoW10NW10NW9NW6NW7NW5NW5N10N6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6NE7N8NE10NW7NW11
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2 days agoSW6W6W7W4W5NW6NW4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5W6W12W12

Tide / Current Tables for Iona Shores, Florida
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Iona Shores
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:30 PM EST     0.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EST     0.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.60.40.30.20.10.10.10.20.40.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.50.70.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:00 AM EST     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EST     0.75 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:24 PM EST     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:58 PM EST     0.94 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:06 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1-1.1-0.9-0.500.50.70.70.70.60.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.300.40.80.90.80.50-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.