Wednesday, May23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Punta Rassa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:13PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:34 AM EDT (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 1:53PMMoonset 1:56AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 358 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..East winds around 10 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Widespread showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 358 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis..Atlantic high pressure ridging westward along latitude 30 north maintains southeast flow across the waters for the next few days...with winds 15 knots or less with seas 4 feet or less through the end of the week except higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. An area of low pressure may move into the gulf during the upcoming weekend and result in higher winds and seas. All mariners should continue to Monitor the progress of this system in the coming days.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Punta Rassa, FL
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location: 26.5, -82.02     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 230757
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
357 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Short term (today-Thursday)
Slight modification today as a digging trough over the
eastern u.S has allowed winds above 50h over the peninsula
to shift to the west. W v imagery indicates this has caused
the core of the deep tropical plume of moisture to
temporarily shift east of the state with some slightly drier
air aloft advecting over the region. Increased subsidence
overnight and the drier air aloft has allowed skies to clear
across much of the forecast area. Deep moisture persists
below 50h with pcpw value on 23 00z tbw sounding still a
very respectable 1.87 inches. So for today, skies will begin
mostly sunny which will allow significantly stronger
insolation than the area has seen over the past week with
high temperatures generally in the upper 80s and possibly
around 90. Atmosphere remains quite unstable, and the
stronger insolation will increase convective instability
which will help create stronger updraft potential. Negative
factor will be weak boundary layer flow which will decrease
low level convergence. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon... With highest
pops over southwest florida in region of best deep layer
moisture and boundary interactions. Unlike previous days,
the stronger storms will be capable of wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph and can't rule out small hail as 50t hover around
-9c... Although the hail threat is quite low.

Thursday will be a transition day as the core of the deep
layer moisture begins to shift back over the area... And
another plume of deep tropical moisture poised over the west
caribbean begins to advect north toward the florida
straits. A bit more cloud cover expected on Thursday which
may hold MAX temps to the mid 80s... With upper 80s across
the nature coast. However lower than normal confidence on
max temps for Thursday given cloud cover could be delayed
which would lead to temps back in the upper 80s to around
90. Regardless... Increasing deep layer moisture and
conditionally unstable atmosphere will lead to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms across all of west
central and southwest florida with locally heavy rain again

The alafia river remains above flood stage, although it is
expected to fall below flood stage this morning. The manatee
river, little manatee river, and horse creek have all
receded below flood stage. However, very wet conditions are
expected through the weekend. Extremely wet antecedent
conditions are now in place... And any additional heavy
rainfall through the weekend may cause these rivers to rise
back above flood stage. The myakka river, which is much
slower to respond, has also been steadily rising and
additional rain could cause the myakka to rise above flood
stage. All individuals living along rivers creeks across
west central and southwest florida should closely monitor
conditions and be prepared to protect life and property due
to the threat of river flooding over the next several
days... With the greatest threat expected over the weekend
and into early next week.

Long term (Friday - Tuesday)
The main concern through the long term forecast period
continues to be the potential for heavy rainfall across the
region. A developing area of low pressure in the western
caribbean will move into the southern gulf of mexico this
weekend. The national hurricane center is currently giving
this system a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days.

Regardless of development, the real concern with this system
will be the heavy rainfall and flooding potential given the
increasingly saturated ground across the area. Exact
rainfall amounts would ultimately be determined by the track
this system were to take. Much uncertainty exists at the
moment however between model guidance with respect to the
placement, track and strength of this feature. Nevertheless
the one thing that seems certain is that with deep tropical
moisture in place across the area... Widespread showers and
storms will be likely nearly everyday. Unfortunately, for
those with memorial day weekend plans, it looks like the
weather is going to have a significant impact on them.

With all of the rain across the region for the last week
now, soils are getting very saturated at this point and
rivers are starting to run high (some already in flood
stage). Additional heavy rainfall is not a welcome scenario
for many spots, and hence we will continue to closely
monitor the evolution of this disturbance for this upcoming
weekend. Flood watches may be needed for portions of the
area in the coming days. Temperatures are forecast to run
below normal on Friday and into the weekend due to the
likelihood of abundant clouds and frequent showers.

For early next week, global models continue to show
cyclonic flow over the region with continued deep moisture
in place across florida, so the threat for additional
rainfall looks to remain even after this low pressure system
moves north of the region.

PredominatelyVFR conditions will prevail today. LCL MVFR
cigs may develop during the late morning early afternoon
020-030. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with LCL MVFR cigs
and ifr vsbys.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory levels
through the end of the week. Winds and seas may increase
above advisory levels over the weekend depending on any
development of an area of low pressure expected to move over
the gulf of mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the waters through the remainder of the week
and over the weekend. The stronger storms will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds, locally rough seas, and heavy

Fire weather
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several
days as relative humidity values are expected to remain well
above critical levels.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 88 74 84 73 30 30 70 50
fmy 88 73 86 72 60 30 70 50
gif 88 73 87 71 30 20 60 50
srq 86 73 85 72 30 20 60 50
bkv 88 71 88 71 20 20 60 50
spg 85 74 86 73 30 20 60 50

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 13 oglesby
mid term long term decision support... 11 mckaughan

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 13 mi46 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 71°F 82°F1017.2 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 28 mi46 min 73°F 80°F1017 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 35 mi109 min 71°F 71°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 46 mi34 min E 7 G 8 71°F 79°F1017.8 hPa (+0.3)71°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL10 mi41 minE 48.00 miFair71°F70°F96%1017.5 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL14 mi41 minENE 59.00 miFair69°F69°F100%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE3E3E6E6SE11
1 day agoE5E7E6SE14SE11SE13
2 days agoE3E5E5SE7SE8SE6SE11SE7SE9SE7SE5E6SE12E6E4E3E3E3E3E6SE5CalmE3E4

Tide / Current Tables for Punta Rassa, San Carlos Bay, Florida
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Punta Rassa
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Wed -- 02:54 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:25 AM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:32 PM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:26 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Wed -- 01:17 AM EDT     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:29 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:18 PM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:03 PM EDT     0.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.