Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 3:02 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 242 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Tuesday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Thursday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 242 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Gusty sw winds this afternoon combined with persistent long period swells from the S gulf to keep seas elevated and choppy into Sunday. A frontal boundary will sag into the E gulf with scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms Sunday. Weak high pressure to build into the region with winds and seas slowly subsiding early to mid week.

FXUS62 KTBW 182346 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 746 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated for the next several hours before frontal boundary increases chances of showers and isolated storms early on Sunday. Models are not in great agreement in terms of timing, but most bring the aforementioned boundary across the peninsula through Sunday. A few CAMs bring a rounds of few showers ahead of the front around 09Z hence why a line was added to most terminals. Thereafter, uncertainty increases and it is difficult to pin point where exactly the showers will develop.
Going into the afternoon, and as the system gets closer chances for isolated thunderstorms increases, especially north of the I-4 corridor. This potential is now reflected on the TAFs. Overall, a challenging forecast, but conditions should improve through the evening hours as the boundary exits the area.

DISCUSSION
A shortwave trough continues to move through the S MS River Valley this afternoon with embedded vort maxes rotating around the base producing a series of MCSs along the N Gulf region ahead of a surface frontal boundary. Models bring this convection into the N FL Peninsula late this afternoon into tonight with some strong to severe storms possible mainly over the N Nature Coast. SW low level flow ahead of the front is also keeping the very warm and humid conditions over the area with fairly high heat index values.
Those trying to cool off at Gulf beaches should remain aware as strong rip currents with several rescues reported as long period swell energy is producing 2-3 ft breaking waves especially at SW facing beaches and the rip current statement remains in effect and may need to be extended into Sunday.

The front and upper support is expected to move through the E Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday with much needed scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms through much of the day. SPC continues to indicate a marginal risk for strong to possibly severe storms ahead of and along the front.

The upper shortwave is expected to briefly stall in the W Atlantic with troughing back over the area for Monday and Tuesday. The front should be over S FL with weak high pressure building into N FL with diurnal seabreeze showers or storms mainly in the interior areas during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Upper ridging is expected to build back over the region from the SW Gulf around mid week while surface high pressure and a drier airmass hold through Fri with subsidence, warm temps and low rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 86 75 89 / 40 70 30 30 FMY 78 92 76 91 / 30 60 40 60 GIF 75 88 72 91 / 40 70 30 40 SRQ 77 88 75 90 / 30 70 30 30 BKV 71 87 68 90 / 60 70 20 30 SPG 79 86 78 88 / 40 70 30 30


TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Iona Shores
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Sat -- 12:13 AM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Iona Shores, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Sat -- 02:49 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:27 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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