Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 5:42 PM   Moonset 4:08 AM

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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 712 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: northwest 2 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 2 seconds and west 1 foot at 5 seconds, becoming southeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and west 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 2 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 2 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.Friday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 712 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis - Weak high pressure gradually builds over the waters during the week with east to southeast flow setting up, except shifting to onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. No headlines are expected.

FXUS62 KTBW 202311 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 711 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 703 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure surface and aloft over the region is creating warm dry conditions across west central and southwest Florida this evening. Increasing northeast boundary layer flow will develop tonight and Tuesday...however the gradient will be weak enough to allow the west coast sea breeze boundary to develop Tuesday afternoon, which will the focus for a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Weakening boundary across the area has pretty much washed out with west to northwest flow across all but the northern Nature Coast where flow is northeasterly. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm remains possible over the southern interior into this evening where moisture is higher, otherwise a couple of sprinkles will be possible across the Nature Coast as the northeast flow gradually spreads southward. These northeast winds will spread south across the entire area overnight with fair dry weather prevailing. On Tuesday, the northeast flow will continue, but light enough that we'll see the west coast sea breeze develop and move inland. Should be enough moisture to allow for some scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm to develop during the afternoon and evening over the interior and then further west closer to the Interstate 75 corridor as the east and west coast sea breezes collide.

For the remainder of the work week, high pressure will build over the area with warming temperatures and rather dry conditions anticipated. Only exception may be over the southern interior and southwest Florida where just enough moisture could combine with daytime heating and the sea breezes to allow a few afternoon and evening showers and possibly a thunderstorm each day. High temperatures will climb into the mid 90s away from the coast each day with the sea breeze keeping coastal location in the upper 80s to near 90. Overnight lows will be a little lower then they have been recently thanks to the drier air, but still close to normal for mid to late May.

Over the weekend, an upper level shortwave is expected to move across the southeast U.S. suppressing the ridging and allowing some deeper moisture to spread across the entire area. However, this will also mean that the low level flow will shift to a more south to southwest direction so that the highest rain chances will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with mostly clear skies tonight...and SCT040-050 developing on Tuesday. LCL MVFR CIGs and VSBYs will be associated with scattered mid/late afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.



MARINE
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Weak high pressure gradually builds over the waters during the week with east to southeast flow setting up, except shifting to onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. No headlines are expected.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Some drier air will filter into the area during the week with highest rain chances, albeit less than 30 percent, over southern interior and southwest Florida by midweek. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with winds 15 mph or less. Higher dispersions will be possible over the next few afternoons over inland areas, otherwise no concerns are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 89 74 93 / 0 30 20 10 FMY 72 94 73 95 / 10 20 30 40 GIF 69 89 71 93 / 10 30 0 10 SRQ 70 91 72 94 / 10 30 30 10 BKV 64 91 67 95 / 0 20 10 10 SPG 75 90 78 93 / 10 30 20 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Iona Shores
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Mon -- 02:37 AM EDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:29 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:22 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Iona Shores, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:18 AM EDT     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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