Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Mansfield, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:29PM Saturday February 23, 2019 8:37 AM CST (14:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:01PMMoonset 10:02AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ132 Expires:201902231630;;378761 Fzus54 Kbro 231008 Cwfbro Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Brownsville Tx 408 Am Cst Sat Feb 23 2019 Lower Texas Coastal Waters From Baffin Bay To The Mouth Of The Rio Grande Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz130-132-135-231630- Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 408 Am Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots shifting north in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop on the bay after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Choppy bay waters subsiding to a moderate chop on the bay in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop on the bay after midnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 408 Am Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis..Adverse marine conditions are expected along the lower texas coast due to the passage of a cold front and an enhanced pressure gradient afterwards. Small craft exercise caution is likely from today through early next week. Improved winds and seas are anticipated beginning around the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Mansfield, TX
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location: 26.54, -97.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 231131 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
531 am cst Sat feb 23 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Adverse aviation conditions at the start of the taf
period will steadily improve this morning due to the approach and
passage of a cold front. Even better aviation conditions are
expected this afternoon and tonight as high pressure develops in
the wake of the front.

Prev discussion issued 418 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
short term (today through Sunday): fog abounded across deep south
texas and the rio grande valley until recently, when increasing
surface winds in advance of a cold front scoured much of this fog
away from the region. The passage of this front will occur from west
to east between sunrise and midday today. Although a rapid influx of
dry air will accompany the frontal passage, enough moisture may
exist to allow for isolated showers over most of the adjacent
coastal waters today. Dry weather with limited cloud cover will then
prevail tonight and Sunday in the wake of the front. Well above
normal temperatures today should beat the passage of the frontal
boundary, with more near normal values tonight and for the
remainder of the weekend post-frontal.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday): the good news for spring
lovers? No cool-downs are expected through the work week, and
temperatures on the whole will average a couple degrees above
seasonal averages headed into march (averages are upper 70s by day
and upper 50s by morning). The not so good news? While there
should be a little sunshine, it may be harder to come by for yet
another week, especially in the lower valley but at times covering
much of deep south texas. March should come in like a gentle
lamb... Mild to warm but only by a few degrees. The continued mild
to warm air with dewpoints mainly in the 60s for much of the
period will continue the full leafing of trees and green-up of
grasses, with greening spreading ever so slowly into the upper
valley and brush country ranchlands.

Rainfall remains an uncertain but hopeful answer for part of the
week, continuing to favor Thursday. Models, particularly the
notoriously wet ecmwf, have backed off a bit for the Thursday into
early Friday rain and have trimmed back some of the QPF forecasts
to account for this uncertainty. Otherwise, the other main hazard
to contend with will be high threat for rip currents Monday
through at least Wednesday, along with some potential for run-up
of water to the dunes given the continuation of 1 to 1.3 feet
above predicted tides and a persistent easterly fetch that brings
a decent swell for several days, courtesy of strong high pressure
easing through the eastern half of the u.S. Through at least
Tuesday. Local fog may become an issue once again as dewpoints
rise to meet overnight temperatures and combine with the light
easterly flow. This is most likely overnight Tuesday night and
each night thereafter. Sea fog could also redevelop but more
uncertainty exists this time around with a slower recovery of high
dewpoint air just above the surface.

Atmospherically, the region remains on the south side of a speedy
zonal flow aloft through Tuesday, with a brief poke of 500 mb
ridging from northern mexico Wednesday before a modest short wave
dampens the ridge Thursday into Friday. Global models are in good
agreement with the big picture through Wednesday, then begin to
diverge Thursday and Friday with the ECMWF retaining more of an
east to east-northeast flow, which combined with deeper moisture
farther north associated with the aforementioned short wave to
nudge thermal parameters down a hair. The GFS holds onto a touch
more southeast surface flow and higher thermal parameters into
Friday, along with a bit more dry atmospheric air. Confidence in
either solution is low owing to the nature of speedy zonal flow,
timing of short waves within it, and spring transition which is
often a bear to fit the correct puzzle pieces together more than
five days out. For this reason, have maintained a blended solution
for next Thursday and Friday, which leans toward a slightly warmer
forecast but within consensus of the guidance.

For the sensible weather overall, expect more clouds but little
rainfall Sunday night through Monday night, with slightly better
chances Tuesday (though with low confidence) favoring areas east
of us 281 ih 69c, then only slight chances Wednesday Wednesday
night before a more uncertain increase in rain chances and rain
amounts on Thursday. Should more forcing show its hand as the late
week event approaches, we may need to add thunder into the mix
given better instability than in recent events - but too early to
make that call now.

Marine: buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 12 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly
under 3.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 250 cst 850 utc. A cold
front is expected to sweep through the lower texas coastal waters
today. Moderate winds and seas are anticipated in advance of, and
behind, the cold front boundary. Small craft exercise caution is
anticipated to be needed during the entire forecast period,
especially for the gulf of mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles
offshore. Additionally, any sea fog that exists along the lower
texas coast in advance of the cold front will be quickly swept away
due to increasing winds and a rapid influx of drier air.

Sunday night through Wednesday night: the trick to this forecast
is seas and swell. Wavewatch and to some degree nwps model output
is highly driven by local regional wind fields. However, mid gulf
stronger easterly winds and full gulf fetch make the argument for
a longer duration of potentially hazardous seas to small craft.

Initial values of 4 to 6 feet Sunday night will therefore be
carried into Tuesday... Mainly offshore... But would not surprise
if the actual values are 6 to 7 feet or higher across all of the
water for the Monday through early Wednesday period before the
fetch and strength of mid east gulf winds collapses a bit. Swell
period likely to reach 8 seconds and perhaps 9 seconds. Bottom
line? Might see some periods of small craft advisory (seas) as a
reasonable worse case scenario Monday through Tuesday before
conditions improve a little. Still, moderate 4 to 5 feet seas are
likely into Tuesday night before finally subsiding a bit more
Wednesday night.

Otherwise, moderate northeast winds Sunday night will veer east
and generally range from 10 to 15 knots through early Tuesday
before veering more southeasterly at 10 knots or so for the
remainder of the period. Laguna madre conditions should be
favorable through the period. About the only other concern might
be a redevelopment of sea fog as early as Monday night, which
could persist on and off for the remainder of the period over the
nearshore water and perhaps laguna madre.

Fire weather... A cold front is expected to sweep through deep south
texas and the rio grande valley today, bringing a rapid influx of
dry air and veering moderate winds with breezy gusts. Although red
flag warning criteria are not expected to be met, relative humidity
percentages and 20-foot winds support the issuance of a fire danger
statement for Saturday.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst this morning for gmz130-132-
135-150-155.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMNT2 2 mi44 min 71°F 66°F1010.5 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 18 mi44 min SSE 7 G 8 66°F 62°F1010 hPa
RLIT2 20 mi44 min SSE 6 G 8 69°F 66°F1010.5 hPa
BZST2 35 mi44 min SSE 9.9 G 12 65°F 61°F1009.5 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 35 mi44 min SSE 8 G 8.9 66°F 1010.6 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 35 mi44 min SSE 7 G 9.9 71°F 63°F1010.3 hPa
42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX 48 mi38 min S 7.8 G 12 69°F 67°F1010.6 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Rincon Del San Jose, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX26 mi46 minS 103.00 miFog/Mist72°F69°F91%1010 hPa

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N8N5N3N6N6NE4N3NE5NE7NE6NE5NE5E5SE9SE9S14S11S11S16S10S11S14S10
1 day agoN3NW4NW5W4N4N7NE9NE4NE13NE14NE9NE7N5NE6NE3NE3NE5NE5N4NE5E6N3N8N5
2 days agoNW13NW15NW10N10N9N7N8NE11NE11NE7E8NE5E4CalmW3NW3NW4N3NW4N5NE4N4N4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Padre Island (South), Texas
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Padre Island (South)
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Sat -- 05:56 AM CST     1.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:00 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:01 PM CST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:18 PM CST     0.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:59 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.50.70.91110.90.70.60.50.40.50.60.70.80.80.80.70.60.40.20

Tide / Current Tables for Padre Island (South), Texas (2)
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Padre Island (South)
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Sat -- 06:50 AM CST     0.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:00 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:17 AM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:26 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:44 PM CST     0.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:59 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:56 PM CST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.50.60.80.90.90.80.60.30.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.70.40.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.