Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 5:15 AM   Moonset 6:57 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

GMZ132 Expires:202405080315;;787029 Fzus54 Kbro 071414 Cwfbro
coastal waters forecast for the lower texas coast national weather service brownsville tx 914 am cdt Tue may 7 2024
lower texas coastal waters from baffin bay to the mouth of the rio grande out 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz130-132-135-080315- laguna madre from the port of brownsville to the arroyo colorado- laguna madre from the arroyo colorado to 5 nm north of port mansfield tx- laguna madre from 5 nm north of port mansfield to baffin bay tx- 914 am cdt Tue may 7 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south early in the morning. A moderate chop on the bay. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay, increasing to choppy late in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Choppy on the bay, diminishing to a moderate chop in the late evening and overnight. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then becoming east early in the morning. A moderate chop on the bay, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Friday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms until late afternoon, then a chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers early in the evening, then a slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 914 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate southeast winds will persist along the lower texas coast through late week with generally moderate seas. Small craft exercise caution conditions are expected during afternoon hours on the bay through the week. Low rain chances return Friday through the weekend.

FXUS64 KBRO 071038 AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 538 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Unseasonable heat is expected during the short term period across Deep South Texas.

- Those spending a prolonged period outside will need to take necessary heat precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses.

- Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday.

The overall weather pattern will promote above normal temperatures, triple-digit heat indices, and rain-free conditions through the short term period across Deep South Texas. At the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain well established low-level southerly to southeasterly flow and allow for high dew points to remain in place. Quasi-zonal flow aloft may allow for a few embedded impulses to pass overhead, but drier air in the mid levels and a cap in place will preclude any precipitation chances.

Widespread low clouds will be slow to lift/scatter this morning, but should begin to clear out from west to east by late this morning or early afternoon. The latest suite of high res guidance does maintain partial cloud cover across most of the region, with low clouds likely remaining along the immediate coast and some high clouds filtering in from the west/southwest. This may help with the unseasonable heat this afternoon as high temperatures warm into the mid 90s along/east of US-281 and upper 90s to around 101 degrees west of US-281. In combination with the humidity, heat index values will approach the triple-digits across most of Deep South Texas, ranging from 101-113 degrees.

A caveat to the temperature forecast is the amount of cloud cover we actually see this afternoon. GOES-16 Upper-Level Water Vapor IR satellite imagery reveals the high clouds currently reside across Mexico, but are gradually moving toward Deep South Texas. Higher cloud cover than currently forecast may help temper the heat this afternoon, which could result in a high temperature 1-3 degrees cooler than currently forecast... and lower heat index values. Due to this uncertainty, I have opted to hold off on the issuance of a Heat Advisory for this afternoon. Otherwise, another mild and cloudy night is expected tonight as widespread low clouds develop once again. Low temperatures will fall into the 70s region wide.

Wednesday will be around 2-6 degrees warmer than Tuesday, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 101-106 degrees across the Upper RGV and Brush Country.
The main reason for this noticeable increase in temperatures is the increase of 850mb temperatures due to warm air advection. Now, while the air temperature will be highest across the western half of the region, lower dew points will be in place due to the presence of a dryline. This will result in heat index values measuring near or 1-3 degrees above the air temperature. Conversely, the presence of higher dew points east of the dryline will result in heat index values around 10-12 degrees above the air temperature. For areas east of the dryline, heat index values will range from 109-113 degrees during the afternoon hours. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for portions of the region Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The aforementioned dryline will move farthest to the east within the BRO CWFA on Thursday, producing a ridiculous burst of daytime heat. Well above normal high temperatures will occur, and a HEAT ADVISORY is likely to be needed for the five easternmost counties (Hidalgo, Brooks, Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy).

Fortunately, the unseasonably warm temperatures experienced in the Short Term and a fraction of the Long Term will come to end on Friday, and persist through the remainder of the forecast period, due to the Friday passage of a cold front. More seasonal daytime highs and overnight lows are anticipated courtesy of the frontal passage. An added bonus will be the possibility of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday, produced initially by the cold front, but then subsequently by the passage of a series of 500 mb disturbances. The most recent U.S.
Drought Monitor map of Texas places Abnormally Dry conditions within Cameron, Hidalgo, and Starr counties, so the convection may help to ease this condition ever so slightly where it occurs.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Widespread MVFR ceilings this morning will gradually improve to VFR through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Brief reduced visibility to around 5-6SM and BR cannot be ruled out over the next 2-3 hours. While VFR will likely prevail at MFE and HRL this afternoon, intermittent periods of MVFR ceilings may persist at BRO. Another round of MVFR ceilings is expected once again tonight. Otherwise, southeast winds around 10-15 knots will prevail through the TAF period.

MARINE
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Light to moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible each afternoon, especially across the Laguna Madre and northern Gulf waters as wind speeds increase.

(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Small Craft Exercise Caution and brief possible Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas Coast Wednesday night through Friday due to an enhanced pressure gradient and the subsequent Friday passage of a cold front.
Outside of this time period, generally moderate winds and seas are forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 77 94 78 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 96 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 77 85 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 76 93 76 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:05 AM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM CDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:12 PM CDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:37 PM CDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas (2), Tide feet

Port Isabel
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:14 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM CDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:40 PM CDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas (2), Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Brownsville, TX,