Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Mansfield, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:47PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 2:18 AM CDT (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 8:41PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ132 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1025 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 8 am cdt Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..South winds 16 to 22 knots gusts to 28 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Wednesday..South winds 11 to 16 knots becoming northwest 7 to 12 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms early in the morning.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 7 to 12 knots shifting southwest 7 to 9 knots early in the morning. A light chop on the bay. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 14 to 19 knots becoming north 7 to 11 knots. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 7 to 9 knots shifting south 7 to 10 knots early in the morning. A light chop on the bay.
Friday..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 13 to 18 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay increasing to choppy in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 19 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Saturday..Southeast winds 16 to 19 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 14 to 19 knots. Choppy on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..North winds 7 to 9 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 1025 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis..Southerly winds and seas to increase overnight as strong low pressure tracks across the southern plains. Adverse marine conditions to persist overnight and continue offshore mainly for seas Wednesday. A weak cold front moves offshore late Wednesday night and early Thursday with moderate north winds and diminishing seas. Another storm system develops across northwest texas over the weekend with a return to another round of more adverse marine conditions. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Mansfield, TX
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location: 26.54, -97.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 290538 aac
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1238 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Satellite image and surface observations indicate low
clouds across most of the CWA late tonight. Ceilings were near
1700ft at kbro to near 2900ft at khrl. Expect MVFR conditions to
prevail the rest of tonight through early Wed morning as low level
moisture continues to stream northward ahead of 500mb low/trough
across new mexico/west texas.VFR conditions will prevail after
15z Wed as a weak cold front/surface trough moves the area. Strong
low level jet across the lower tx coast and surface low pressure
across southwest tx will continue to provide low level wind shear
across eastern portions of the CWA late tonight through early wed
morning.

Prev discussion /issued 1058 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
discussion... Low level jet intensifying this evening with bro
wsr-88d VWP indicating 37kts at 2000 feet and a strong 55kts at
4500 feet. Some stronger gusts are being felt across the lower and
mid rio grande valley with peaks winds in the last hour of 36 mph
at brownsville airport, and 35 mph at the cameron county airport
and 30 mph at both harlingen and mcallen airports. Winds should
stay just below wind advisory tonight but can not rule out a few
gusts reaching 40 mph over the next few hours. Will bump winds up
another notch in the zones for the overnight hours with winds
diminishing around or shortly after sunrise as the LLJ moves off
to the east and a weak front approaching from the west.

Discussion... Updated for latest marine discussion below.

Marine... Strong winds continue over the laguna madre but have not
yet materialize over the gulf waters. Still anticipating winds to
quickly increase by or shortly after midnight as strong winds
aloft mix to the surface as the pressure gradient strengthens with
the approach of the storm system over north texas. Will keep the
small craft advisory in tact but if winds do not reach the
forecast maximum seas could remain below forecast values which are
currently 6 to 9 feet. Winds to relax shortly after sunrise
Wednesday as a front approaches the coast. This may allow for seas
to subside ahead of schedule and may allow for the scas over the
gulf to be cancelled early.

Prev discussion... /issued 719 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation... Strong south winds will be the main aviation impact as
surface winds gust up to 25 knots through the evening hours. Winds
could decouple enough later tonight for low level wind shear to
develop as winds near 2000 feet approach 50 knots. Llws weakens
by sunrise Wednesday as the low level jet lifts northeast and a
cold front approaches the rgv. The cold front is expected to move
through kmfe around noon but there is uncertainty if the front
makes it to the coast. Winds will be diminishing in advance of the
front and look to be light NW in wake of the front. Patchy MVFR
cigs are possible but models suggest stratus will be short lived
through midnight withVFR being the predominate condition
overnight. Much drier air will be working its way through the
region as a large upper level storm system passes well to the
northeast providingVFR conditions for much of Wednesday.

Prev discussion... /issued 331 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
short term (tonight through Wednesday night): closed 500-mb low
pressure and a surface low-pressure system still expected to move in
tandem out of the desert southwest and across northern texas during
the forecast period. An initial weak cold front extending southward
from the surface low-pressure system will move from west-to-east
into deep south texas and the rio grande valley during the pre-dawn
hours of Wednesday before becoming stalling out near the lower texas
coast Wednesday afternoon. 12z runs of NAM & GFS in good
agreement that the only real precip threat with this initial front
is across the northern tier of counties between about 09-15z
where isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. Drier air
sweeps through in the wake of this boundary, making the temp
forecast for Wednesday a bit difficult. Duration of
westerly/downslope wind component at low levels limited in
duration. Blended latest met/mav guidance which seemed fairly
realistic. This had the effect of backing off high temps a couple
of degrees in the rgv, though it will still be seasonally hot,
with low-mid 90s pretty much everywhere.

Onshore flow returns fairly quickly Wednesday evening, pumping up
dewpoints back into the 60-70f range for the SE two-thirds or so of
the cwa. With the main upper-level dynamics swinging through north-
central tx and the approach of secondary cold front, another short
window for precip/thunder exists between midnight and around sunrise
Thursday. GFS much more robust with the precip chances than nam
at this point, so some uncertainty remains. SPC has placed the
area in a marginal risk for severe weather. This is a
possibility, especially if a momentum-driven squall line reaches
the northern counties. Prog soundings indicate favorable shear and
instability profiles, but overall moisture depth is shallow and a
significant cap remains. Given all this, went with 20-30% pop's
for 06-12z Thursday with isolated thunder mention but downplaying
the severe threat for now.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday): the forecast period
begins with a weak cold front moving across the lower texas coast
Thursday morning. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday morning before subsidence increases across deep
south texas as a 500mb trough axis moves east over the state
Thursday into Thursday night. Weak zonal flow aloft will continue
to provide subsidence across the region ahead of the next mid-
level storm system approaching from the west. Moisture will begin
to increase across portions of the area Saturday as the next 500mb
low/trough moves over new mexico Saturday and Saturday night. The
best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday
night into Sunday with rain chances ending by Sunday evening. The
mid-level low/trough axis moves over the lone star state Sunday
night into Monday.

Marine:
now through Wednesday night: currently missing data from both
buoy 42020 and tabs-k, but with tight pressure gradient in place,
winds will remain hazardous across all of the lower texas coastal
waters (including the laguna madre) through the night. Small craft
advisory for winds is in effect for the laguna through 8am
Wednesday. Strong winds over the gulf waters through tomorrow
morning will build seas to 7-9 feet, then slowly subside into the
evening with a SCA in effect through 7pm Wednesday. Winds decrease
to more light-moderate speeds Wednesday night as the pressure
gradient weakens in advance of a frontal boundary. Scec for seas
likely to persist at least for the outer gulf waters, however,
with a threat of thunderstorms as well.

Thursday through Saturday night... A weak cold front moves
offshore the lower texas coast Thursday morning. Winds will shift
to the northwest and increase in the wake of the front and small
craft advisories will likely be needed for the gulf waters
Thursday. Moderate to strong northwest winds Thursday will
diminish Thursday night and turn to the northeast. Southeast and
south winds will develop Friday as surface high pressure across
the western gulf of mexico moves eastward. The pressure gradient
is expected to increase along the lower texas coast Saturday with
low pressure strengthening across west texas. Moderate to strong
southeast will prevail across the coastal waters Saturday and
small craft advisories may be needed for the laguna madre and
offshore waters.

Bro watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for winds until 8 am cdt this morning for
gmz130-132-135.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz150-155-
170-175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/rgv
61/64


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMNT2 2 mi49 min 76°F 79°F1005.3 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 18 mi49 min SSE 27 G 32 78°F 78°F1004 hPa
RLIT2 20 mi49 min SSE 21 G 24 75°F1005.5 hPa
42044 - PS-1126 TABS J 30 mi139 min S 19 G 21 75°F 75°F1006.4 hPa (+3.0)72°F
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 35 mi49 min S 17 G 22 76°F 1005.8 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 35 mi49 min SSE 17 G 25 76°F 76°F1005.4 hPa
42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX 48 mi89 min S 18 G 21 74°F 8 ft1005.4 hPa (+0.5)71°F

Wind History for Rincon Del San Jose, TX
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SE16
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX26 mi27 minS 20 G 299.00 miOvercast and Breezy77°F73°F88%1004.3 hPa

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE10SE11SE11SE12SE8SE11SE21
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1 day agoS9SE10S12SE8E4SE6SE6S13S11S14S14
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S10SE10SE12E18SE13E9SE8SE9SE9SE11SE12
2 days agoS10S8S8SE7S6E6SE10SE17SE19S21
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S11S12S14S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (east end)
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Wed -- 05:33 AM CDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:48 AM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:16 PM CDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:03 PM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.50.70.91.11.21.21.10.90.80.60.50.50.50.60.70.80.80.70.50.40.20-0

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (west end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (west end)
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:00 AM CDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:57 AM CDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM CDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:12 PM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.60.80.91.11.11.10.90.70.60.50.40.50.50.70.70.70.70.60.40.20.1-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.