Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Mansfield, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:14PM Sunday May 20, 2018 8:03 PM CDT (01:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:52AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ132 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 408 Pm Cdt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft should exercise caution this evening...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots shifting south after midnight. A light chop on the bay.
Friday..Southeast winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay building to a light chop in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots shifting south after midnight. A light chop on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 408 Pm Cdt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis..Slightly adverse marine conditions are expected along the lower texas coast through this evening courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient. The gradient will then relax for the remainder of the period as weak high-pressure ridging settles over the northwestern gulf of mexico. Light-to-moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected during this time.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Mansfield, TX
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location: 26.54, -97.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 202345
afdbro
area forecast discussion
national weather service brownsville tx
645 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Main forecast challenge is whether the line of showers
and thunderstorms, currently located about 130 miles NW of the
mfe-bro corridor, can hold together as it approaches. Some of
this activity could merge with be enhanced by storms moving off
the higher terrain in mexico as well. In line with current short-
term forecast thinking, will introduce showers and possible
thunder at mfe after around midnight. Showers also a possibility
for hrl and bro, but confidence significantly lower at this time.

Otherwise, SE winds of 10-15kt with MVFR ceilings will prevail
overnight. Conditions may improve toVFR mid-day Monday; however,
another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms is possible in
the afternoon, again favoring mfe.

Prev discussion issued 322 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018
short term (tonight through Monday night): main forecast issue is
the possibility of rainfall overnight into tomorrow morning, and
how far east it will progress. Currently a broken line of
thunderstorms exists from del rio east to houston, which is slowly
progressing southward. Meso models and recent trends indicate a
better chance for this line to propagate southward along the river
into deep south texas. Outflow will continue to help this line
southward, but associated h5 wave will be shifting newd through
the rest of the day and tonight, so thunderstorm activity is not
expected to quite hold it intensity as it arrives. Still, deep
gulf moisture across the region and minimal capping, especially
the western valley, will help the remnants of these thunderstorms
into the region this evening. Have kept a good chance for
precipitation going for the overnight hours, with southerly flow
continuing to bring moisture northward. The next wave that was
expected early tomorrow morning is now expected more during the
afternoon hours, so any boundaries and low level moisture
remaining may be enough to spark more shower and thunderstorm
activity. Have returned pop chances to the Monday forecast for
this potential.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday): the large 500 mb closed low
situated over the desert SW states on tues will move out to the
northeast on Wed while another large 500 mb closed low will move
into the west coast from the eastern pacific thurs and fri.

This closed low will also move up to the northeast this coming
weekend pushing into the pacific NW state by Sunday. Meanwhile,
over the gulf of mex a broad weakness in the 500 mb pattern will
persist throughout much of this upcoming work week. Both the gfs
and ECMWF models maintain this broad 500 mb troffing over the gulf
of mex through next weekend with the ECMWF showing stronger
development over the mid level troffing versus the gfs. This
alignment of troughs closed lows to the east and northwest will
maintain persistent 500 mb ridging over the rgv throughout the
upcoming work week. This will maintain above normal temps and
rain free conditions throughout next weekend. The broad troffing
over the gulf of mex will maintain the best moisture levels and
associated conv potential over the eastern half of the gulf of
mex with the western gulf remaining on the dry side of the trough
axis.

The GFS and ECMWF 500 mb heights are in pretty good agreement for
the synoptic pattern through day 7. Run to run and model to model
comparisons of the gfs ECMWF mos temps and pops throughout next
weekend is pretty consistent with both model sets trending towards
gradually increasing heat for the rgv this upcoming week.

Overall confidence in the upcoming forecast period is above
average.

Marine (now through Monday night): with the lack of a
significant surface feature in the central plains, gradient has
weakened enough to allow winds to relax, and will continue to
slowly decrease during the next 36 hours. Winds tonight will
remain around 15 knots offshore, with lighter winds along the
coast. Winds pick back up to 15 knots along the laguna tomorrow,
but all areas drop to 5 to 10 after sunset as surface ridging
briefly shifting westward across the northern gulf.

Tuesday through Friday night: fairly broad surface ridging
extending into the gulf of mex this upcoming week will maintain
winds and seas below SCA levels.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
53-schroeder 59


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMNT2 2 mi45 min 83°F 82°F1011.5 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 18 mi45 min ESE 19 G 22 81°F 85°F1011.9 hPa
RLIT2 20 mi51 min E 14 G 18 86°F 79°F1011.6 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 35 mi45 min SE 4.1 G 14 82°F 83°F1011.9 hPa
BZST2 35 mi51 min ESE 11 G 13 79°F 85°F1010.8 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 35 mi45 min ESE 8.9 G 13 80°F 1012.3 hPa
42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX 48 mi33 min E 12 G 16 80°F 80°F1012.9 hPa77°F

Wind History for Rincon Del San Jose, TX
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SE21
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX26 mi71 minESE 1410.00 miOvercast87°F75°F67%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE16SE12SE11SE11SE10SE14SE15
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SE17SE16SE17SE14SE15
1 day agoS15SE13SE15SE14SE13SE13SE13SE13SE13SE12SE11SE14SE20
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2 days agoSE10SE10SE10SE8S8S8SE8S9S10S10S8S10S19
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Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (east end)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:10 AM CDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:57 AM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3-00.30.60.91.11.31.41.51.41.41.31.21.1110.90.70.50.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (west end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (west end)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:19 AM CDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:25 AM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.10.20.50.711.21.31.31.31.31.21.11.110.90.80.70.60.40.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.