Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Mansfield, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:42PM Friday December 15, 2017 9:18 PM CST (03:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:47AMMoonset 4:09PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ132 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 346 Pm Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Scattered rain showers and patchy drizzle.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots shifting north in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of rain showers after midnight.
Sunday..North winds around 5 knots shifting northeast in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay.
Sunday night..East winds around 5 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Smooth on the bay increasing to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots shifting northeast after midnight. A light chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots shifting southeast after midnight. A light chop on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 346 Pm Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis..Breezy conditions will continue across the northwest gulf through the next 24 hours, while seas remain agitated. A low pressure system will develop off the lower texas coast on Saturday and move quickly towards the upper texas coast, maintaining fresh breezes over the gulf waters. Weak high pressure will yield much improved conditions Sunday and Monday before another front increases winds by Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Mansfield, TX
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location: 26.54, -97.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 152319 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
519 pm cst Fri dec 15 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Widespread -dz continues to sweep northeastward across
the region this evening, as good overrunning continues behind the
cold front. Winds remain from the north at the surface, but are
beginning to decrease, while winds just off the surface remain
northerly at 20 to 25kts. Winds abruptly shift to southerly at
7000 feet, and jump above 40kts above that level. Expect this
pattern to continue through the night and into tomorrow as the
surface high slowly moves into our area. Models continue to show
the ra dz effects to wane after sunrise tomorrow, keeping
visibility reasonable. CIGS will remain around 3000 through the
day, but shouldn't fluctuate much below this level.

Prev discussion issued 252 pm cst Fri dec 15 2017
short term (now through Saturday night): in the wake of the cold
front last night, temperatures have cooled since midnight into
the low 50s and upper 40s and remained steady the last couple of
hours. In addition, widespread drizzle and light showers continue
to move northeastward across much of deep south texas with very
little in the way of amounts so far. A better push of surface
high pressure into south texas this afternoon has increased winds
along the coast with a few gusts possibly up to 30 mph. Cool and
messy conditions will continue through the short term period with
moderate northwest winds and likely chances of rain through
Saturday night.

The main synoptic player is a 500mb low near baja california,
which will finally break away and eject northeastward into north
texas Saturday afternoon. With very moist air through the column,
Saturday will likely be another wet day. The best chance of rain
will be in the afternoon with a couple embedded shortwaves and an
upper level jet streak of 90 to 100 kts moving overhead. At the
surface, models are in good agreement developing a coastal low,
which will also enhance precipitation and keep winds breezy along
the coast. A few thunderstorms are possible, but instability is
only modest at this point.

Temperatures will be well below normal with temperatures steady or
slowly falling this evening into the upper 40s for most areas.

Overcast skies and precipitation will keep highs down on Saturday
into the low to mid 50s (normal highs are in the low 70s).

Long term (Sunday through Friday): ridging off the west coast
extending northeast into the pacific northwest is alternatively
blocking meridional flow and then allowing it. In other words,
gulf of alaska lows are tending to energize and track south over
the ridge and then down the west coast. Sunday morning presents
one of the lows, essentially cut off, over the extreme southwest
u.S., supporting southwest flow aloft over texas and a continued
feed of upper moisture.

The low will eject over west texas on Tuesday, as the next mid
level trough begins to make its way south along the west coast,
eventually stagnating over northwest mexico. In the mean time,
canadian air pushes south and moves through the CWA as a cold
front Friday night. This part is educed from the current model
presentation. The middle of the week is more murky. The GFS is
quicker to move the first mid level low over the southwest across
the southern plains, thus allowing weak high pressure to filter
south over the cwa. The ECMWF is a little more sluggish with the
low, thus preventing delaying a wind shift ala the gfs. The ecmwf
keeps more of the energy to the north as well. In both cases the
week will end up mostly cloudy and warmer than average by about
ten degrees.

Marine:
now through Saturday night: adverse marine conditions will
continue in the wake of a strong cold front with moderate to
strong nnw winds this afternoon. Small craft advisories are in
effect for the laguna madre through at least 4 pm cst and midnight
cst for the gulf waters. Coastal low pressure developing on
Saturday may enhance the gradient with borderline small craft
conditions again. Seas will begin to improve Saturday night and
subside to 3 to 5 feet.

Sunday through Wednesday night: light north winds will veer to
south by Monday with high pressure spreading over the northwest
gulf and shifting east. The GFS is trying to switch winds to north
on Tuesday behind a more quickly ejecting shortwave trough, while
the ECMWF hangs onto south winds longer. By Wednesday or Thursday
the models line up again with south winds. Regardless of the wind
direction, wind strength will be light to moderate.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until midnight cst tonight for gmz150-155-
170-175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
64


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMNT2 2 mi48 min 47°F 58°F1025.6 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 18 mi48 min NW 12 G 14 49°F 56°F1025.2 hPa
RLIT2 20 mi48 min WNW 13 G 20 48°F 65°F1025.2 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 35 mi48 min NW 15 G 21 48°F 60°F1024.5 hPa
BZST2 35 mi48 min NNW 19 G 25 49°F 62°F1023.6 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 35 mi48 min NNW 21 G 25 50°F 1024.9 hPa

Wind History for Rincon Del San Jose, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX26 mi26 minNW 1210.00 miOvercast48°F46°F93%1025.6 hPa

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW7NW9NW8NW12N16N16
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NW16NW14NW14NW11NW12NW12NW10NW10NW12
1 day agoSE6W5SE7S4S5CalmSE3E5CalmSE3SE3SE4S8SW5SW4SW6W4W3NW6N6NE3NE3E4N5
2 days agoN4NW3NW5W5NW4W5W6W4NW5--W6NW6NW3W4SW444E3E3SE4E5E5E5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (east end)
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:45 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:14 AM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:08 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:19 PM CST     1.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.110.80.60.40.2-0-0.1-00.10.30.50.811.21.31.41.41.31.31.21.21.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (west end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (west end)
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:45 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:23 AM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:08 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:47 PM CST     1.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.90.80.60.40.20-0.1-000.20.40.70.91.11.21.31.31.31.21.21.11.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.