Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Mansfield, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:45PM Friday March 24, 2017 1:08 AM CDT (06:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:06AMMoonset 3:33PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ132 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1030 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 2 am cdt Friday...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Rough on the bay.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 8 to 11 knots. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a light chop.
Saturday..South winds 7 to 9 knots shifting southeast 7 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 13 knots late in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay increasing to a moderate chop late in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 14 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Sunday..South winds 11 to 16 knots becoming southeast 17 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay increasing to choppy in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Monday..Southeast winds 12 to 16 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy on the bay.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 18 knots. Choppy on the bay.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 1030 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis..High pressure over the gulf and strengthening lower pressure across west texas will support moderate to strong southeast winds and building seas overnight. Meanwhile, a series of low pressure systems over the plains will interact with high pressure over the eastern gulf keeping a stronger pressure gradient in place for much of the weekend and into next week. This will lead to stronger winds and higher seas continuing through Friday and again Sunday through Tuesday for all or portions of the lower texas coastal waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Mansfield, TX
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location: 26.54, -97.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 240546 aac
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1245 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Multi-level cloud decks prevail across deep south
texas with some MVFR ceilings along and east of the i-69c
corridor early this morning. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible
at hrl and mfe through around 08z. Moderate and gusty southeast
winds expected to continue overnight as the low level 850mb jet
strengthens to near 45 knots. Surface winds will increase later
this morning as the pressure gradient tightens as a strong storm
system moves across the southern plains. Winds should lessen some
as a weak front moves into the area later this afternoon.

Prev discussion /issued 1011 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
discussion... Winds have weakened across portions of the upper rgv
and western ranchlands this evening as the atmosphere has
decoupled. However, winds in the lower valley and near the coast
still remain somewhat elevated and likely will through the
overnight hours with a strong 850mb jet expected to develop.

Have made a few changes to the forecast to account for current
trends, with the overall forecast staying on track.

Prev discussion... /issued 715 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation... Strong and gusty SE winds will continue across the
the rgv this evening before winds decouple and lessen later
tonight. Even so, the low level 850mb jet will strengthen
overnight to near 45kts and do think that winds will occasionally
gust at the surface. However, llws may need to be add to the next
forecast should the surface remain more stable. Winds will
increase again Friday as strong storms system moves across the
southern plains with some moisture and cloud cover increasing
ahead of a pre-frontal trough that will move into the western
ranchlands. Winds should lessen some as it moves through late in
the period.

Prev discussion... /issued 242 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
short term (now through Friday night): greater amplified
midlevel pattern continues, but remains progressive with waves and
ridges quickly sweeping through. Strong h5 ridge currently
overhead will get pushed eastward during the next 24 hours by the
deepening trough moving into the four corners region. Models in
agreement on the trough moving into oklahoma on Friday, pushing a
weak cold front into south texas. Some models continue to show a
small chance for a few showers across the northern ranchlands, but
the main dynamics will be too far to the north, and other models
indicate that a significant area of dry air will move in aloft
early Friday, which would further strengthen the cap. Prefrontal
trough will also push across most of the region during the
afternoon, which is also a capping feature for the western
counties. Did some adjustments to the non-zero pops, mainly for
brooks and kenedy counties, but most of the region will avoid
rainfall yet again. Breezy conditions will develop again Friday
morning due to interaction of the front/trough and high pressure
across the gulf, but most areas will see decreasing winds later in
the day as the sfc trough moves eastward.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday): a stacked low over
southern missouri Saturday morning will lift northeast while a mid
level ridge axis moves over texas. The next short wave trough
will follow on Sunday; upstream pressure falls will be enough to
support locally stronger winds, but there won't be enough ooomph
to push a front past the dry line in west central texas. Mid level
ridging will take hold again on Monday in the up until now
rapidly evolving mid level pattern across the southern united
states. A more interesting and deeper trough will dive down the
west coast Monday into Tuesday, bottoming as a low out over
southern california and southern arizona Tuesday and Wednesday.

This will bring spokes of energy and upper pacific moisture over
the sierra madres of mexico and mainly into west texas on
Wednesday. The low will eject east Wednesday night over west and
north texas, with dry air drafting behind a front edging toward
the CWA on Thursday. Temperatures will warm Wednesday and Thursday
as 850 mb winds strengthen and veer more to south. The front will
push through on Thursday, but despite carrying limited rain
chances in the forecast, not giving it a whole lot of credence.

Relative humidity values will plummet Thursday with the arrival of
the drier air, resulting in a dry heat Thursday and Friday. To
sum up: warm, breezy and dry for much of the long term.

Marine:
now through Friday night: small craft advisory remains in effect
for the laguna madre through sunset, as low level jet mixes to the
surface. Things switch overnight, as the coastal winds decrease
to around 15 knots, but winds across the open gulf waters jump to
20 to 25 knots. The increase in winds will allow seas to increase
to 6 to 8 feet offshore tonight and continue through tomorrow. A
separate advisory will be hoisted with the next update for the
gulf waters, starting at 7pm and running through 8am Friday
morning. Winds across the marine zones tomorrow will initially be
breezy, but a surface trough just inland will weaken the gradient
across the northwest gulf. Weaker gradient continues Friday night,
with winds dropping to around 10 knots.

Saturday through Tuesday: elevated seas will carry over from
Friday night into Saturday, but will settle down slightly during
the day in response to a flat pressure gradient. However, pressure
will decrease over the plains again Saturday, resulting in
stronger southeast winds late Saturday into Sunday and Sunday
night. Seas will build by Sunday under fresh southeast winds.

Conditions will improve Monday night as winds decrease. Small
craft exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions
will be the norm during most of this time.

Bro watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory for winds until 2 am cdt early this morning
for gmz130-132-135.

Small craft advisory until 8 am cdt this morning for gmz150-155-
170-175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/rgv
63


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMNT2 2 mi51 min 74°F 77°F1015.3 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 18 mi51 min SSE 21 G 24 74°F 75°F1015.1 hPa
RLIT2 20 mi51 min SSE 18 G 23 74°F1015.3 hPa
42044 - PS-1126 TABS J 30 mi129 min SSE 18 G 19 72°F 72°F1016.3 hPa66°F
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 35 mi51 min SSE 17 G 19 73°F 1015.7 hPa
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 35 mi51 min SSE 17 G 21 73°F 73°F1015.2 hPa
42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX 48 mi79 min SSE 21 G 25 73°F 6 ft1014.9 hPa (+0.0)66°F

Wind History for Rincon Del San Jose, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX26 mi17 minSSE 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F69°F87%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE6SE8SE8SE6SE5SE6SE10SE16
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1 day agoSE8SE8SE8SE7SE6SE6SE6SE9S14S16
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2 days agoSE7SE6SE7SE7SE5SE6SE5SE8S12S19S18
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Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (east end)
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:36 PM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:03 PM CDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.90.80.60.40.30.20.10.10.20.40.60.811.11.21.21.110.90.80.80.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (west end), Texas
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Queen Isabella Causeway (west end)
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 04:04 PM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:12 PM CDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.80.70.60.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.70.911.11.11.110.80.70.70.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.