Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Mansfield, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:41PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:11 PM CST (23:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:27PMMoonset 1:28AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ132 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 401 Pm Cst Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Scattered showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots shifting north after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay. Numerous rain showers.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Rain showers likely.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Rain showers likely.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy in the afternoon. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. A light chop on the bay subsiding to smooth after midnight. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 401 Pm Cst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis..The pressure gradient will tighten this weekend leading to possible borderline small craft advisory conditions over the gulf waters on Sunday. Increasing moisture and an approaching cold front are expected by Sunday night with the chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Elevated seas and moderate winds are anticipated behind the front late Sunday through Tuesday night due to a lingering surface trough just offshore. Calmer marine conditions should return starting Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Mansfield, TX
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location: 26.54, -97.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 172051
afdbro
area forecast discussion
national weather service brownsville tx
251 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018
.Short term (tonight through Sunday night):a mostly cloudy day
across much of the CWA today as low level moisture continues to
increase with the southerly or slight southeasterly flow continuing.

A good number of folks have received at least a spit or two of rain
out there across the coastal counties today. Rain chances begin to
increase overnight tonight as a cold front and parent ul trough
begin to push closer to the region.

Ahead of the front, expect continued return flow into Sunday. As the
upper level impulse and front near, expect rain showers (maybe even
a clap of thunder or two) to develop across much of deep south
texas. Additionally, surface pressures ahead of the front look
rather low and in fact a weak surface low may develop along the rio
grande late Sunday. This will 1) keep rain chances going and 2) have
some implications of timing of the frontal passage here in the lower
valley. Globals suggest the front will pass later as the low
interrupts the southern progression. That said, mesoscale guidance
say a quicker frontal passage as the low ejects quicker or even
develops just offshore. For now decided to split the difference and
bring the front into the northern ranchlands by late Sunday and
through the lower rgv between 06z and 12z Monday.

.Long term (Monday through Saturday):forecasters here are in
conundrum with the gfs ECMWF slowing down the front and pulling up
stationary across the CWA late Sunday night Monday while the nam
with its much stronger cold air surge pushes the front through all
of deep south texas Sunday afternoon and the lower valley by sunset
Sunday. Zonal flow aloft and the development of a low pressure wave
or weak low along the front may indeed slow the front down but the
density of the cold air that the NAM is advertising and in fact what
is observed by current conditions over the tx panhandle plains may
indeed push the front through the region before becoming stationary
south of the region. The other issue of uncertainty is the extreme
high QPF output of the ECMWF and the NAM (although the bulk is shown
offshore the lower texas coast). Very high uncertainty and low
confidence forecast with a potential bust may play out early on in
the forecast. Temperature spreads between the cold NAM and warmer
gfs ECMWF Monday are as high as 16 degrees across portions of the
rgv. Precipitation amounts also range drastically with ECMWF nam
showing over a foot of rain falling over the gulf and 1-3 inches
along the coastal strip (associated with the low pressure sfc
trough) with the GFS a more reasonable 0.50-2 inches along the
coast.

With all this said will continue to trend on the slightly cooler
side but continue high pops (mid lower rgv) and light to moderate
qpf amounts on Monday into Tuesday. All models do show the entire
system moving to the east later Wednesday into Thursday as a strong
shortwave trough swings through texas and the central plains. Rain
chances may persist, especially closer to the coast, through
Wednesday with some resemblance of a coastal trough lingering but is
expected to be lifting northeast Wednesday afternoon evening leaving
the rgv dstx much drier and mild for thanksgiving day and into
black Friday and early next weekend.

.Marine:(tonight through Sunday night): generally light to moderate
southerly or southeasterly flow will prevail through much of the
short term marine period. There will be a transition to a more north
or northwesterly flow toward the end of the period as a cold front
pushes through the region. There is a bit of uncertainty with the
passage of the front, however, at this time winds and sea should
remain mainly moderate with cautionary wording possible. Given that
at times we'll be nearing small craft advisory thresholds, cannot
rule them out at this time, however, if a SCA is needed it will only
be a lower end advisory.

Monday through thanksgiving day... Cold front is expected to pull
up stationary over of just southeast of the coastal waters Monday
into Tuesday. There is a potential for an earlier frontal passage
over the northern coastal waters Sunday afternoon evening. Either
way moderate northern flow to develop to help build seas. Low end
small craft advisories are possible by Tuesday as the front and
weak low pressure area moves just east of the coastal waters. The
front and low gets shoved eastward Wednesday and Thursday with
weak high pressure building over the northwest gulf maintaining a
slight to moderate north-northeast flow and moderate persistent
sea state.

Preliminary point temps pops
Bayview port isabel 69 77 61 66 50 70 60 60
brownsville 67 78 61 66 50 70 60 60
harlingen 66 78 59 64 50 70 60 60
mcallen 66 78 59 62 30 60 60 50
rio grande city 64 75 56 56 30 50 50 40
south padre island 70 75 64 68 50 70 60 60

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
55 62... Near short term
59... Long term


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PMNT2 2 mi42 min 71°F 63°F1016.3 hPa
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 18 mi42 min 71°F 60°F1016 hPa
RLIT2 20 mi42 min ESE 6 G 7
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 35 mi42 min SE 9.9 G 12 72°F 67°F1016 hPa
BZST2 35 mi42 min SE 9.9 G 11
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 35 mi42 min ESE 7 G 8.9 71°F 1016.5 hPa
42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX 48 mi32 min ESE 19 G 23 74°F 77°F1016.6 hPa68°F

Wind History for Rincon Del San Jose, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX26 mi20 minSE 1110.00 miOvercast74°F66°F79%1015.5 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (east end), Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Queen Isabella Causeway (west end), Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.