Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hypoluxo, FL
May 19, 2024 12:08 PM EDT (16:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 3:45 PM Moonset 3:02 AM |
AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Rest of today - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S sw 1 foot at 3 seconds and ne 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S se 1 foot at 3 seconds and S sw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 foot at 4 seconds and ne 1 foot at 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms. Showers likely.
Mon night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue - N ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming ne in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms.
Tue night - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms late in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Wed and Wed night - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Thu - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis -
a gentle to moderate southwesterly flow will prevail today as low pressure develops just off the se coast and a cold front approaches the area. Winds will shift to northwesterly on Monday as the cold front moves into the area but remain generally light. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms can be expected today into the early week dominant period resulting in locally hazardous winds and seas.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 18, 2024 at 12 utc - .
7 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 7 nautical miles southeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
a gentle to moderate southwesterly flow will prevail today as low pressure develops just off the se coast and a cold front approaches the area. Winds will shift to northwesterly on Monday as the cold front moves into the area but remain generally light. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms can be expected today into the early week dominant period resulting in locally hazardous winds and seas.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 18, 2024 at 12 utc - .
7 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 7 nautical miles southeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 191355 AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 955 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 935 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
We continue to monitor evolving conditions across South Florida this morning ahead of a potentially active and stormy afternoon. Data from the 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an atmosphere already primed for convective activity and potentially severe impacts across the immediate East Coast and Lake Okeechobee regions.
With MUCAPE > 5000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates above 6 C/km, EBWD > 40 kts, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.65 inches, damaging wind gusts and severe hail (up to the size of a quarter)
could accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms that could develop after noontime today. At this time, the limiting factor for hail development are the mid level temperatures which remain above -10C. However, temperatures will continue to drop and lapse rates will steepen as a pronounced shortwave will approach the region later today, thus enhancing the risk for hail across the area. A limited risk of tornadoes will also exist with the activity expected this afternoon, but chances will be limited to areas where low-level shear exceeds threshold values, namely along the immediate East Coast sea breeze boundaries.
Models have begun to converge on timing for convective initiation sometime around/after 2PM, with activity persisting through sunset. This could allow temperatures to continue to warm up across the CWA, reaching the mid 90s by early afternoon. Heat indices are already climbing this morning, and peak apparent temperatures of 106-110 degrees look probable for at least Miami- Dade and Broward counties for this afternoon. Given that cloud cover and rain chances will increase by early afternoon over northern portions of the area, suspect that these areas should largely remain below advisory criteria. Nevertheless, would not be surprised to see localized readings near advisory levels in portions of Collier and PB counties particularly if convection/cloud cover is slower to move in than currently forecast.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
The mid-lvl ridge which has been positioned over SFL the last couple days will be displaced southeast of the area today as a pronounced shortwave trough shifts southeastward toward the area (along with some lower-amplitude convectively-enhanced perturbations). At the surface, low pressure will develop off the FL/GA coast with a warm but relatively weak southwesterly flow prevailing over SFL, which should help pin the east coast sea breeze near the immediate coast (and perhaps not even progressing inland at all). The encroaching shortwave will result in both cooling mid-lvl temperatures and also increasing mid-lvl W-SWrly flow, which will support an increasingly favorable convective parameter space over portions of SFL this afternoon. Surface temperatures should once again increase well into the 90s which along with seasonably cool 500mb temps (-9/-10C) will result in steep lapse rates through the lower troposphere with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg along with DCAPE > 1200 J/kg progged. As mid-lvl flow increases, 0-6km bulk shear will likely increase to over 40 kts over northern portions of the area this afternoon which would favor organized multi-cell clusters with isolated supercells possible, particularly along any east coast sea breeze where shear will locally be enhanced.
The main questions regarding convective evolution and the overall severe threat will be the presence of increasing synoptic cloud cover ahead of the approaching wave along with the potential evolution/inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Even with those question marks, given the aforementioned environment, there exists a (greater than climo) risk of large hail, damaging winds, and potentially even an isolated tornado (mostly dependent upon the sea breeze) with afternoon thunderstorms. The best chances of severe storms look to be over Palm Beach and Broward counties where the most favorable intersection between the increasing forcing, the sea breeze progression, and diurnal timing appears to exist.
This coincides with the latest day 1 outlook from SPC which places a slight risk over northern portions of the east coast, largely driven by the wind and hail risk.
The other concern of the day will be excessive heat as the hot air mass remains in place. It won't quite be as oppressive as yesterday (which basically featured record high heat indices for May) but peak apparent temperatures of 106-110 degrees look probable for at least Miami-Dade and Broward counties, so another heat advisory has been issued for those locations. Given that cloud cover and rain chances will increase by early afternoon over northern portions of the area, suspect that these areas should largely remain below advisory criteria. That being said, would not be surprised to see localized readings near advisory levels in portions of Collier and PB counties particularly if convection/cloud cover is slower to move in than currently forecast.
The weak low will remain over the Atlantic on Monday and a weak frontal boundary will shift southward towards the area. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms once again, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east)
should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
The weak cold front should finally make it through the area on Tuesday although a trailing shortwave will likely support at least scattered showers and storms particularly over southern portions of the area closer to the boundary. Mid-lvl ridging should then build into the area for the mid-late week period, with generally light easterly surface flow prevailing as weak high pressure builds into the Atlantic. Drier air and the presence of the ridge will keep PoPs lower than the early week period (largely in the isolated-scattered category), with the synoptic easterly flow favoring the highest PoPs over the Interior and SW Florida. The easterly flow will result in cooler (but still above average) high temperatures over SEFL (mostly upper 80s) while low to mid 90s can be expected over SWFL and the Interior.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Sub-VFR conditions could be possible for all terminals this afternoon as convection overspreads the region, with SHRA/TSRA likely after 15Z. Short-fuse TEMPOs will likely be needed through the afternoon especially for East Coast sites. Winds will remain light and variable this morning, becoming SW at 8-10 kts near noon-time. There is some uncertainty regarding the inland intrusion of the Atlantic sea breeze; at this time, erred on the side of caution with SSE winds at all East Coast sites except KOPF and KTMB after 18Z. Conditions should improve overnight.
MARINE
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Mainly benign marine conditions are expected over the period with light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow expected today which will generally shift to the northwest on Monday as a cold front approaches. Scattered to Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 93 78 91 75 / 60 30 70 50 West Kendall 95 75 93 72 / 50 30 60 40 Opa-Locka 94 77 92 75 / 60 30 70 50 Homestead 94 76 92 74 / 40 40 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 90 75 / 70 40 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 76 90 75 / 70 40 70 50 Pembroke Pines 95 77 93 75 / 70 30 70 50 West Palm Beach 92 74 90 72 / 70 40 60 50 Boca Raton 93 75 91 74 / 70 40 70 50 Naples 91 76 89 74 / 40 40 40 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.
AM...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 955 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 935 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
We continue to monitor evolving conditions across South Florida this morning ahead of a potentially active and stormy afternoon. Data from the 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an atmosphere already primed for convective activity and potentially severe impacts across the immediate East Coast and Lake Okeechobee regions.
With MUCAPE > 5000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates above 6 C/km, EBWD > 40 kts, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.65 inches, damaging wind gusts and severe hail (up to the size of a quarter)
could accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms that could develop after noontime today. At this time, the limiting factor for hail development are the mid level temperatures which remain above -10C. However, temperatures will continue to drop and lapse rates will steepen as a pronounced shortwave will approach the region later today, thus enhancing the risk for hail across the area. A limited risk of tornadoes will also exist with the activity expected this afternoon, but chances will be limited to areas where low-level shear exceeds threshold values, namely along the immediate East Coast sea breeze boundaries.
Models have begun to converge on timing for convective initiation sometime around/after 2PM, with activity persisting through sunset. This could allow temperatures to continue to warm up across the CWA, reaching the mid 90s by early afternoon. Heat indices are already climbing this morning, and peak apparent temperatures of 106-110 degrees look probable for at least Miami- Dade and Broward counties for this afternoon. Given that cloud cover and rain chances will increase by early afternoon over northern portions of the area, suspect that these areas should largely remain below advisory criteria. Nevertheless, would not be surprised to see localized readings near advisory levels in portions of Collier and PB counties particularly if convection/cloud cover is slower to move in than currently forecast.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
The mid-lvl ridge which has been positioned over SFL the last couple days will be displaced southeast of the area today as a pronounced shortwave trough shifts southeastward toward the area (along with some lower-amplitude convectively-enhanced perturbations). At the surface, low pressure will develop off the FL/GA coast with a warm but relatively weak southwesterly flow prevailing over SFL, which should help pin the east coast sea breeze near the immediate coast (and perhaps not even progressing inland at all). The encroaching shortwave will result in both cooling mid-lvl temperatures and also increasing mid-lvl W-SWrly flow, which will support an increasingly favorable convective parameter space over portions of SFL this afternoon. Surface temperatures should once again increase well into the 90s which along with seasonably cool 500mb temps (-9/-10C) will result in steep lapse rates through the lower troposphere with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg along with DCAPE > 1200 J/kg progged. As mid-lvl flow increases, 0-6km bulk shear will likely increase to over 40 kts over northern portions of the area this afternoon which would favor organized multi-cell clusters with isolated supercells possible, particularly along any east coast sea breeze where shear will locally be enhanced.
The main questions regarding convective evolution and the overall severe threat will be the presence of increasing synoptic cloud cover ahead of the approaching wave along with the potential evolution/inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Even with those question marks, given the aforementioned environment, there exists a (greater than climo) risk of large hail, damaging winds, and potentially even an isolated tornado (mostly dependent upon the sea breeze) with afternoon thunderstorms. The best chances of severe storms look to be over Palm Beach and Broward counties where the most favorable intersection between the increasing forcing, the sea breeze progression, and diurnal timing appears to exist.
This coincides with the latest day 1 outlook from SPC which places a slight risk over northern portions of the east coast, largely driven by the wind and hail risk.
The other concern of the day will be excessive heat as the hot air mass remains in place. It won't quite be as oppressive as yesterday (which basically featured record high heat indices for May) but peak apparent temperatures of 106-110 degrees look probable for at least Miami-Dade and Broward counties, so another heat advisory has been issued for those locations. Given that cloud cover and rain chances will increase by early afternoon over northern portions of the area, suspect that these areas should largely remain below advisory criteria. That being said, would not be surprised to see localized readings near advisory levels in portions of Collier and PB counties particularly if convection/cloud cover is slower to move in than currently forecast.
The weak low will remain over the Atlantic on Monday and a weak frontal boundary will shift southward towards the area. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms once again, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east)
should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
The weak cold front should finally make it through the area on Tuesday although a trailing shortwave will likely support at least scattered showers and storms particularly over southern portions of the area closer to the boundary. Mid-lvl ridging should then build into the area for the mid-late week period, with generally light easterly surface flow prevailing as weak high pressure builds into the Atlantic. Drier air and the presence of the ridge will keep PoPs lower than the early week period (largely in the isolated-scattered category), with the synoptic easterly flow favoring the highest PoPs over the Interior and SW Florida. The easterly flow will result in cooler (but still above average) high temperatures over SEFL (mostly upper 80s) while low to mid 90s can be expected over SWFL and the Interior.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Sub-VFR conditions could be possible for all terminals this afternoon as convection overspreads the region, with SHRA/TSRA likely after 15Z. Short-fuse TEMPOs will likely be needed through the afternoon especially for East Coast sites. Winds will remain light and variable this morning, becoming SW at 8-10 kts near noon-time. There is some uncertainty regarding the inland intrusion of the Atlantic sea breeze; at this time, erred on the side of caution with SSE winds at all East Coast sites except KOPF and KTMB after 18Z. Conditions should improve overnight.
MARINE
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Mainly benign marine conditions are expected over the period with light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow expected today which will generally shift to the northwest on Monday as a cold front approaches. Scattered to Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 93 78 91 75 / 60 30 70 50 West Kendall 95 75 93 72 / 50 30 60 40 Opa-Locka 94 77 92 75 / 60 30 70 50 Homestead 94 76 92 74 / 40 40 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 90 75 / 70 40 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 76 90 75 / 70 40 70 50 Pembroke Pines 95 77 93 75 / 70 30 70 50 West Palm Beach 92 74 90 72 / 70 40 60 50 Boca Raton 93 75 91 74 / 70 40 70 50 Naples 91 76 89 74 / 40 40 40 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.
AM...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL | 5 mi | 51 min | 88°F | 80°F | 29.98 | |||
| PEGF1 | 32 mi | 51 min | 88°F | 29.96 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLNA PALM BEACH COUNTY PARK,FL | 3 sm | 13 min | no data | -- | 93°F | 75°F | 56% | 29.96 | ||
| KPBI PALM BEACH INTL,FL | 9 sm | 15 min | WSW 14G19 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 93°F | 73°F | 53% | 29.96 | |
| KBCT BOCA RATON,FL | 12 sm | 75 min | WSW 11 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 91°F | 75°F | 59% | 29.97 | |
| KPMP POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK,FL | 21 sm | 15 min | SSW 06G17 | 10 sm | Clear | 93°F | 70°F | 47% | 29.96 |
Boynton Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:13 AM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:02 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM EDT 2.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT 2.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:13 AM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:02 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM EDT 2.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT 2.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Boynton Beach, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.3 |
| 8 am |
| 2.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
South Delray Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:05 AM EDT 0.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:02 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:46 AM EDT 2.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:22 PM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT 2.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:05 AM EDT 0.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:02 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:46 AM EDT 2.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:22 PM EDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT 2.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
South Delray Beach, ICWW, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Miami, FL,
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