Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McGregor, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:38PM Thursday December 13, 2018 5:47 PM EST (22:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 437 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..South winds around 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms...mainly late in the day.
Friday night..South winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a light to moderate chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..North winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 437 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure over the gulf of mexico moves eastward as a cold front approaches from the west through Friday. This front with preceding areas of showers and storms reaches the eastern gulf waters early Friday...before exiting across florida to the atlantic early Saturday. High pressure builds into the western gulf Sunday and tracks east...reaching the eastern seaboard by midweek. Strong winds with gusts perhaps close to gale force along with associated rough seas begin to impact the waters later tonight. In addition some Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front are likely to be strong to severe during Friday. Mariners should frequently check the latest forecast when planning any trips through the first half of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McGregor, FL
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location: 26.56, -81.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 131946
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
246 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Slight risk of severe thunderstorms Friday...

Hazardous conditions are expected to impact marine waters and
beaches...

Discussion
Robust mid level low over tx this afternoon takes an easterly
track... As ridging east of fl moves away... Along the western gulf
coast Fri then over the southeastern states during sat. At the
surface - ridging over fl and the east gulf slides to the east as
the surface reflection of the tx mid level low drags a cold front
across the gulf. The front reaches the west-central and southwest
fl coastal waters Fri then slips across the state to the atlantic
sat.

Moisture and wind fields begin to increase over the gulf later
tonight ahead of the approaching system... Shift into the coastal
waters early fri... Then cross west-central fl Fri morning into the
afternoon and southwest fl afternoon and evening. These times are
first guess and will be adjusted over the next couple of forecast
cycle. A squall line or two is expected to form ahead of the
front with strong to severe thunderstorms that can produce
damaging wind gusts... Tornadoes or waterspouts... And locally heavy
rainfall with flooding. The most active weather will be moving
east across the state toward the atlantic late Fri night. Large
waves and swells will be generated in the western gulf that
translate onto area breaches for the weekend with a high risk of
rip currents expected.

For Sun - thu: the mid level low exits the southeastern coast early
in the period as ridging builds into the nation S mid-section from
mexico then slides east through wed. Surface high pressure settles
into the western gulf Sun then tracks to the eastern seaboard by
midweek. On Thu a mid level short wave trough low moves into the
southern plains with a surface low cold front forming on the western
gulf coast. The upper and surface ridging dominate for much of the
period with dry seasonable temperatures. Moisture increases enough
by Thu to support some showers and a few thunderstorms.

Aviation
13 18z TAF cycle.VFR conditions as bkn-ovc mid deck continues and
lowers with increasing low clouds. E and ese winds... Gusty at times
this afternoon... Back slightly and slacken over night then begin to
increase and become SE to sse aft 14-15z. Approaching cold front
with a sq ln will bring vcsh to northern terminals aft 14z... With
vcts at tpa aft 14 20z. Conditions are expected to deteriorate byd
this TAF cycle.

Marine
Increasing winds ahead of an approaching storm system will require
small craft advisories on some of the waters tonight... And spread to
the rest of the waters as the system moves into the coastal waters
fri with thunderstorms and possible waterspouts. The front crosses
the state Sat then moves out over the atlantic. This system is
generating large waves and swells in the western gulf that will
translate into the local waters for perhaps much of the weekend.

High pressure begins to build into the western gulf Sun then slides
to the eastern seaboard by midweek with winds veering and
diminishing.

Fire weather
Atmosphere continues very moist with no low humidity concerns. Storm
system coming in from the west will bring showers... Thunderstorms...

and locally heavy rainfall mainly Fri with some showers and a few
storms into sat.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 66 76 65 72 20 80 80 30
fmy 65 82 69 74 0 40 60 30
gif 63 79 65 74 10 70 70 40
srq 65 78 67 72 10 70 70 30
bkv 63 77 65 72 30 90 80 40
spg 65 77 65 72 20 80 80 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est
Friday for waters from englewood to tarpon springs fl
out 20 to 60 nm-waters from tarpon springs to
suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion aviation marine fire weather... 09 rude
decision support... 25 davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 7 mi48 min ESE 7 G 11 77°F 66°F1016.9 hPa (-0.4)
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 30 mi48 min SE 2.9 G 8 76°F 68°F1017.6 hPa (-0.0)
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 37 mi63 min 78°F 64°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 45 mi48 min SSE 8.9 G 8.9 70°F 66°F1017.6 hPa (-0.3)63°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL3 mi55 minESE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F59°F54%1017.5 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL9 mi55 minSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds76°F61°F60%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E4E4E5E4E6E6E5E5E6NE5E3E6E4E4E8E8SE13SE8SE10
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1 day agoN8N6NE7NE5E3E3NE3NE4CalmCalmNE4NE6NE7NE6NE6NE8NE8NE9E9E8E9E8E10E8
2 days agoN8N8N6N7N7NE4NE5NE6NE5E3CalmNE3NE5NE3NE4N9N8N9N12N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Coral Bridge, Florida
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Cape Coral Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:45 AM EST     0.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:20 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM EST     0.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.50.60.70.80.80.80.70.60.40.30.10-000.10.30.40.50.60.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM EST     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:07 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:54 PM EST     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:15 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.70.50.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.20.40.810.90.70.50.40.20-0.2-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.