Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lochmoor Waterway Estates, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:36PM Sunday November 19, 2017 7:12 AM EST (12:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 6:47PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lochmoor Waterway Estates CDP, FL
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location: 26.65, -81.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 191139
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
639 am est Sun nov 19 2017

19 12z. Limited br fg with MVFR ifr mainly lal pgd til 14z. Skc to
lcl bkn ac will give way to increasing clouds... But staying in the
vfr range. Approaching front expected to reach northern terminals
mid-morning and southern ones in the afternoon with shra... Sct in
the north and isold south. Modest southern winds shift to northerly
and become gusty with the front.

Prev discussion issued 323 am est Sun nov 19 2017
short term (today - Monday)...

the weather pattern today will revolve around a fast moving
cold front that is currently pushing southeast through the
florida panhandle and is on track to clear the forecast area
by this evening. Regional radar returns are showing some
narrow bands of showers focused along the frontal boundary,
and rain chances will increase over the nature coast this
morning as these bands move south, and then across the
tampa bay area and interstate 4 corridor this afternoon.

Most high resolution models are forecasting that the
moisture will dry out as the front reaches southwest
florida, so rain chances are more uncertain south of tampa
bay. Regardless, no area is expected to see a wash out, with
most of the area likely to just receive brief showers along
the frontal passage. Breezy north winds will fill in behind
the front, bringing much cooler temperatures tonight, with
lows Monday morning expected to drop into the 40s and upper
30s over the nature coast, and in the 50s to around 60
farther south. Increasing winds could bring an increased
risk of rip currents overnight, but the wind direction turns
to the north and offshore so quickly behind the front that
any rip current threat might be avoided.

Winds will continue veering to the northeast on Monday as
high pressure builds in north of the area, allowing temperatures
to begin to warm back up. Afternoon highs are expected to
reach into the low 70s north, and mid to upper 70s over the
southern half of the area. Conditions should also feel less
humid during the morning, although by the afternoon,
moisture will begin advecting back into the area off the
atlantic, with increasing humidity.

Long term (Monday night - Saturday)...

surface high pressure along the mid atlantic coast Monday
night will slide east into the atlantic on Tuesday as
short wave energy slides eastward across the area during the
day. The cold front which had moved south of the region
Sunday night will lift slowly back to the north as a warm
front. Increasing lift along the warm front combined with
increasing low level moisture within the return east-
southeast wind flow around the departing surface high and
the short wave energy aloft will support scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms (pops 60 to 70
percent) developing across the region on Tuesday along with
moderating temperatures and increasing humidity levels.

During Tuesday night into Wednesday models show another and
more vigorous positively tilted short wave trough moving
from the southern plains across the lower mississippi valley
and into the west central gulf of mexico. The gfs ECMWF and
canadian continue to struggle with the evolution and timing
of this system, but despite the differences the models
continue to agree that the upper level trough and or closed
low will deepen over the west central gulf during Wednesday
night into Thursday with surface cyclogenesis likely
occurring somewhere over the eastern gulf during Wednesday
night, with the upper trough and attendant surface low then
moving east-northeast toward and across the region during
Thursday and Friday via a blend of the model solutions.

Similar to yesterday uncertainty remains as to the exact
location of the surface low development, its intensity, and
movement, thus confidence in anyone model solution remains
rather low at this time.

Regardless of which model solution should pan out increasing
moisture within a deep layered southwest wind flow ahead of
the above mentioned features combined with increasing upper
level divergence and large scale lift ahead of the
amplifying upper level trough should support good chances
for showers and isolated storms (pops in the 50 to 70
percent range) along with the potential for some locally
heavy rain across the forecast area Wednesday night through
thanksgiving day and likely continuing into Friday as this
storm system lingers over the region. Pleasant dry weather
should finally return on Saturday as the storm system exits
to the east into the atlantic and high pressure builds in
over the region.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will fall back to slightly below normal during
Thursday and Friday as cloud cover and rain chances increase
across the area, with near to slightly below normal
temperatures continuing into the weekend as cooler and drier
air advects into the region.


a cold front will quickly move southeast through the eastern
gulf of mexico today, with winds increasing along the front
to around 20 knots. Behind the front, winds will turn to the
north and continue to increase overnight tonight, with
periods of cautionary level winds expected. High pressure
will fill in north of the waters on Monday, with winds
turning to easterly and subsiding through Tuesday. A weak
low will develop in the gulf on Tuesday and lift northeast
through the coastal waters, causing an increase in rain
chances, although winds are not expected to pick up

Fire weather...

some patchy fog will continue to be possible early this
morning, then drier air will fill in behind a front today.

No additional fire weather concerns expected through the
first half of the week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 76 51 75 63 40 0 10 20
fmy 80 59 78 65 10 10 10 20
gif 78 50 74 61 40 0 10 10
srq 77 54 76 64 40 0 10 30
bkv 76 45 74 58 50 0 10 20
spg 76 53 74 64 40 0 10 30

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 7 am est
Monday for coastal waters from englewood to tarpon
springs fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from tarpon
springs to suwannee river fl out 20 nm-waters from
bonita beach to englewood fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters
from englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20 to 60 nm-
waters from tarpon springs to suwannee river fl out
20 to 60 nm.

Aviation... 09 rude
short term marine fire weather... 18 fleming
long term... 57 mcmichael

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VENF1 - Venice, FL 42 mi72 min SW 8.9 G 8.9 73°F 73°F1014.1 hPa (-0.3)65°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 42 mi87 min 59°F 59°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL5 mi19 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist61°F60°F97%1014.6 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL10 mi19 minN 09.00 miFair61°F61°F100%1014.4 hPa
Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport, FL20 mi19 minSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F55°F96%1015 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE3E5E6E6SE5SE6SE6SE3W7W7W6W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE10NE11E9NE6NE10N10
2 days agoNE12NE10NE10NE10NE10N4N9

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Myers, Florida
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Fort Myers
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Sun -- 02:55 AM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:16 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EST     0.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:42 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Sun -- 12:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:16 AM EST     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:20 AM EST     1.19 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:15 PM EST     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:48 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:38 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:32 PM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.