Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lochmoor Waterway Estates, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:45PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:33 PM EDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:22AMMoonset 9:41PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lochmoor Waterway Estates CDP, FL
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location: 26.65, -81.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 302323
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
723 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Aviation(00z tafs)
Vfr conditions expected through much of the forecast
period. A cold front will move across the region during the
day on Friday, bringing a westerly wind shift and a chance
of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. For now, will
only mention vcsh as confidence on convective coverage
remains low. Brief MVFR CIGS may develop as moisture pools
ahead of the front, but will hold off on any prevailing sub
vfr conditions.

84/austin

Prev discussion /issued 232 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017/
short term (tonight - Friday)...

a progressive split flow upper air pattern will continue across the
conus during the short term period. High pressure surface and aloft
will continue to shift eastward over the atlantic tonight as a
closed low and attendant surface low over the mid mississippi valley
moves east-northeast toward the ohio valley/northern appalachians
region through Friday. As the aforementioned storm system moves east
a trailing cold front from it will move east through the florida
panhandle later tonight before it begins to slow down as it moves
into the northern florida peninsula early on Friday, and then into
the central forecast area Friday night as the main upper support
pulls away well to the north and the front becomes parallel to the
upper level flow. A slow increase in moisture combined with enough
instability and lift ahead of the front should support increasing
chances for some much needed rain with some scattered showers and a
few storms (pops 30 to 40 percent) possible over northern portions
of the forecast area later tonight as the front approaches, and then
across the remainder of the forecast area on Friday as the front
sinks south into the region during the day with breezy, warm, and
muggy conditions expected.

Temperatures tonight and Friday will remain above normal with lows
tonight in the 60s area-wide, with daytime highs on Friday again
reaching the mid 80s over inland locations, except cooler readings
along the immediate coast due to a breezy onshore flow.

Long term (Friday night - Thursday)...

a closed upper low sits over the four corners region and associated
trouging extends south into the eastern pacific. Upper ridging
extends from louisiana northward through the dakotas. Another closed
low sits over northern virginia, with a more zonal pattern over
florida through Saturday morning when ridging moves east over the
area. This ridging will move east through the weekend into the
beginning of next week as another closed low and deep troughing
approaches the southeast u.S. This troughing will lend support to
the next weather system that is expected to move through the florida
peninsula on Monday and Tuesday next week.

On the surface, an area of low pressure sits over the eastern great
lakes region and extends a cold front south along the
eastern seaboard through southeast florida. Weak high
pressure moves into the gulf of mexico in the wake of this
front and will bring sunny skies and unseasonably warm
temperatures to the area through the weekend. The next
weather system will develop over mississippi by early
Monday. This low moves east-northeastward and will trail a
cold front through the gulf of mexico toward western florida
by Monday evening. This will bring a 30-40 percent chance
of showers and storms to the area beginning Monday afternoon
and continuing through Tuesday afternoon. As this front
moves over southern florida, high pressure builds back into
the area bringing clearing conditions through Wednesday
night next week.

Aviation...

vfr will prevail at all terminal sites during the next 24 hours. An
approaching cold front will bring increasing chances for shra/tsra
to the terminals after 13z on Friday and have added vcsh to all
sites to account for this for now. A slow increase in mid and high
level clouds can be expected tonight into Friday, with lower CIGS in
the 050-070 range expected after 15z. South to southwest winds in
the 10 to 15 knot range this afternoon will diminish to 6 to 8 knots
after 02z tonight, then increase into the 15 to 20 knot range with
some gusts up to 25 knots possible after 14z on Friday.

Marine...

high pressure moving east over the atlantic combined with a cold
front approaching from the west will support an increasing south
to southwest wind flow over the gulf waters tonight through Friday
with a period of cautionary headlines likely across the offshore
waters by later tonight through Friday a the cold front approaches
and sinks south into the eastern gulf waters through the period.

Lighter winds and lower seas will return to the waters Friday night
into the upcoming weekend as high pressure re-builds in over the
region with an onshore sea breeze component again developing along
the coast each afternoon. On Monday winds may again increase toward
cautionary or small craft levels as they become southeast to south
as yet another cold front approaches from the west with this front
then sinking south through the waters during Monday night and
Tuesday with winds shifting to the southwest and west.

Fire weather...

increasing 20 foot winds and transport winds will support elevated
dispersion indices across the region on Friday. Humidity values will
remain above critical levels on Friday as moisture and rain chances
increase across the region. Drier air will filter in during the
upcoming weekend which will support a few hours of critically low
humidity values below 35 percent over interior locations each
afternoon, however light winds and erc values below 37 should
preclude red flag conditions.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tpa 68 79 66 82 / 10 30 10 10
fmy 65 82 67 86 / 10 30 10 0
gif 64 85 63 87 / 10 30 10 0
srq 67 77 64 80 / 10 30 10 0
bkv 64 83 57 85 / 10 30 10 0
spg 68 79 68 82 / 10 40 10 10

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Prior afd...

short term/aviation/marine/fire weather... 57/mcmichael
mid term/long term/decision support... 74/wynn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 0 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 8 77°F 82°F1012.6 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 36 mi46 min 77°F1013.4 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 42 mi34 min S 8 G 8.9 74°F 75°F1012.6 hPa (-0.8)69°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 42 mi109 min S 7 79°F 63°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL5 mi41 minSSW 610.00 miFair78°F64°F64%1013 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL10 mi41 minSW 1010.00 miFair75°F62°F64%1012.8 hPa
Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport, FL20 mi41 minSW 910.00 miFair76°F64°F67%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE4S5SE8S11
G17
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1 day agoNW5NW4N3N4CalmNE3CalmE3E3E3SE3CalmS3S6S5S65SW8W13
G20
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2 days agoNW4CalmE4CalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3SE4N5E454CalmW11
G17
W12NW13NW10NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Myers, Florida
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Fort Myers
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Thu -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:02 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:01 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.40.60.70.70.60.40.30.100.10.30.60.91.21.31.210.70.40.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Thu -- 01:11 AM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:59 PM EDT     1.34 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.41.30.90.4-0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-00.61.11.31.10.6-0.1-0.7-1.2-1.4-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.