Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lochmoor Waterway Estates, FL

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Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:22PM Saturday July 21, 2018 3:30 PM EDT (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:22PMMoonset 1:06AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lochmoor Waterway Estates CDP, FL
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location: 26.65, -81.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 211903
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
303 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
19z water vapor and h4 rap analysis showing an unusually
complex and amplified mid upper level pattern over north
america for the last half of july. The most prominent
features defining the synoptic pattern over the eastern half
of the nation include a large ridge over the central part
of the county and downstream troughing anchored by a large
closed low over the great lakes region. Between these two
features we find strong upper flow diving southeastward over
the middle ms and tn valleys. This strong flow will
eventually help to amplify the eastern trough down all the
way to the eastern gulf of mexico... Which is pretty unusual
for this time of year. The impacts of this digging trough
will be discussed further in the short term and long term
discussions below. Other smaller feature of note is a weak
elongated shortwave impulse stretching SW to NE over the
eastern gulf and central fl peninsula. Latest WV imagery
and rap forecasts have continued to move this feature
slowly southward. Synoptic forcing for ascent ahead of its
axis... And resulting deeper moisture have also pivoted
southward... With most of the shower storm activity now south
of i-4. In its wake we see a narrow corridor of mid upper
level ridging building into the northern central
peninsula... And resulting subsidence drying. The storms
moving in from the north that have tracked all the way down
across al ga north florida today are riding their own self
made cold pool, but should begin to weaken the further south
they progress later this afternoon into the influence of
this drier and more suppressive airmass.

Closer to the surface... W SW flow remain in place between
the subtropical ridge axis over the fl straits and a series
of subtle trouging features to our north.

Short term (tonight through Sunday)
Currently not expecting a whole lot of eventful weather
around the area for later this evening after any storm
moving into levy citrus counties from the north dissipate. A
few additional showers are certainly possible... Especially
down along the suncoast coastal lee charlotte counties,
but generally benign and muggy for the majority of the
overnight. The long fetch flow remains off the gulf... So
anticipate coastal locations to see lows in the lower 80s,
with mid upper 70s inland. As we head through the
night... The first signs of the eastern trough's
amplification south will be felt. Shortwave ridging over
much our the area this evening will quickly push
southward... As the trough base dips toward the NE gulf coast
and the deep layer mid upper flow becomes increasingly
cyclonic overhead. This cyclonic flow will be most
pronounced over northern florida by sunrise... But at least
some influence will extend further south... And expand
southward through the day Sunday. Westerly low level flow
regime is already climo favored for late night morning
showers storms to move ashore off the gulf. Give this
regime... Any added synoptic support will usually results in
an active shower storm pattern. By Sunday morning we will
see both deep layer support setting up... And many guidance
members are suggesting a rather broad region of upper level
diffluence setting up. With all this in mind... Would expect
a more in the way of morning showers. These forecasts are
always difficult... As subtle features within the deep layer
flow can end up favoring shower consolidation in one
location vs another... When the background fields looks
similar. This meso-scale forecasting usually needs to be
closer in time to accurately predict... Unless a strong
signal exists in the convective allowing guidance... Which
currently it does not. For now the forecast will show a
broad swath of sct-nmrs showers storms developing onshore
after midnight and spreading further inland after sunrise.

Big question mark will be the impact of the remnant mcs
dropping south into the nature coast this afternoon early
evening. Very difficult to determine if this area of
convection will stabalize the northeast gulf or if the
stabilization will last long enough to impact any
nocturnal morning showers activity from tampa northward.

This is an aspect of the forecast that will need to be
watched closely by the evening and overnight shift... And
forecast adjusted if necessary.

Usually westerly flow results in very low pops near the
coast by the later afternoon hours as activity and diffuse
sea-breeze head well inland. However, given the upper
support overhead... We may (and I think we will) keep at
least sct shower production going across the eastern gulf
coastal zones throughout Sunday... Only to increase in
coverage once again Sunday night. Also, SPC has outlooked
far northern portions of the nature coast with a marginal to
slight risk of severe weather Sunday afternoon evening. Feel
this is appropriate given the digging synoptic energy and
associated stronger flow above the surface to support
organized updrafts. While storms are possible anywhere in
the forecast area... At least for Sunday, this threat for
more organized storm structures should be for areas well
north of the i-4 corridor.

Long term (Monday through next Saturday) very unusual
pattern will be in place for the first part of the long term
period. Deep mid upper level troughing is unanimously
forecast by the ensemble guidance to set up over the deep
south eastern gulf through the first half of the week. While
initial thoughts would head toward... "it's going to rain
the whole time"... A closer examination of the guidance shows
a much more complex situation unfolding. Certainly, the
threat for some very heavy rainfall is there, and I am
expecting it, but the sharpness of the trough and its non-
progressive status will lead to individual shortwave
impulses embedded within the larger flow having more
influence on enhanced lift suppressed lift... Compared the
larger scale trough feature itself. Therefore, although rain
chances look to be on the higher side early next week when
looked at an individual day as a whole, the actual forecast
should be looked at as wet periods of time and dry periods
of time within any given day, and likely not a total
washout. When it does rain, and all the ingredients are in
place, the bands have the potential to be quite heavy. For
example, most of the guidance continues to suggest a healthy
moisture gradient across the region Monday (drier north and
wetter south). Through the day, we see good support for a
well defined PV anomaly to drop down into the NE gulf, with
favorable jet dynamics for enhanced lift. Where moisture is
most favorable could tap into these unusual july dynamics
and produce some hefty rain totals. At the same time... The
drier air over the northern half of the area would act
against it. It is simply too early to try and get this type
of detail of when and where into the forecast. The message
will be that conditions in the general vicinity of west-
central SW florida will support localized flooding concerns.

As of the writing of this discussion... Better chances for
heavy rainfall on Monday will exist south of i-4. As we know
more information and confidence increases, we will pass it
along.

This type of sct-nmrs shower pattern associated with the
deep trough will hold in place through Wednesday, before
most guidance members suggest the trough will deamplify and
retrograde westward. Really at any time through Wednesday,
bands of rain could move ashore given the trough placement.

As it stands now, the second half of the week looks to
settle back into a more typical summer pattern... As upper
ridging builds overhead and the subtropical surface ridge
again shifts back north over the peninsula

Aviation (21 18z through 22 18z)
Greater concentration of shower storms continues along and
south from the i-4 corridor. Ktpa kpie klal are now west of
this activity and should remain generally quiet into the
evening hours. Outside of the passing showers all terminals
should generally see higher end MVFR > 2kft toVFR
conditions. Winds SW 10-14 knots through the rest of the
afternoon... Before weakening with sunset. Most evening
showers will dissipate with sunset as well... However... A
renewed threat for passing storms moving ashore will
redevelop late at night into Sunday morning for all
terminals.

Marine
Elevated winds and choppy seas will be the rule through the
rest of the weekend and into early next week. Winds are
expected to increase tonight to near cautionary levels
across much of the forecast waters out of the west... And
remain at or above 15 knots into Monday. Conditions will
also favor scattered to numerous showers and storms.

Mariners should be aware in the next few hours of a line of
strong thunderstorms moving southward over apalachee bay. If
this line holds together... Strong storms will be impacting
the waters adjacent to levy and citrus counties between 3
and 5 pm edt.

Fire weather
No fire weather concerns expected through the next several
days as relative humidity remain well above critical levels
and wetting rains are forecast for most areas each of the
next several days.

No significant visibility issues are expected the next
several days.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 81 89 80 88 30 40 40 60
fmy 79 91 80 90 50 60 40 60
gif 77 92 78 89 20 60 30 60
srq 81 88 82 88 30 50 40 60
bkv 79 90 77 89 30 60 50 50
spg 80 90 80 89 30 40 40 60

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal
manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal
charlotte-coastal sarasota.

Gulf waters... None.

Mroczka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 0 mi31 min W 12 G 16 86°F 89°F1014.7 hPa (-1.5)
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 36 mi31 min 90°F 89°F1015.1 hPa (-1.9)
VENF1 - Venice, FL 42 mi31 min W 20 G 22 86°F 87°F78°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 42 mi46 min 90°F 79°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL5 mi38 minW 1410.00 miFair87°F75°F67%1015 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL10 mi38 minW 14 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds90°F72°F56%1014.7 hPa
Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport, FL20 mi38 minW 12 G 2010.00 miA Few Clouds87°F75°F70%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13SW10W9W8SW6W7W5SW4W4S3SW4SW3SW4SW4CalmSW5SW8SW12SW9W13SW12W15
G23
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1 day agoSW12W12W11SW9W8W6W6W3CalmCalmSE3SE4SE3SE3S4S3S4SW6SW11SW7W9W10W10
G16
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2 days agoW13W9W9W10W7W7SW4SW3CalmSE3S3SE3SE4SE4S3SE3SE4SW4SW9SW9S8SW11SW10
G15
SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Myers, Florida
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Fort Myers
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Sat -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:56 AM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.80.70.60.50.40.40.60.811.11.31.31.21.110.80.60.40.30.30.30.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:03 PM EDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:20 PM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.3-0.20.10.50.80.90.70.50.20-0.2-0.6-0.9-1.1-1-0.6-0.20.10.30.40.50.60.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.