Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 3:01 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 804 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - South winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 804 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Winds will remain out of the south and southwest throughout the weekend ahead of a cold front that will push through late on Sunday. A few showers will be possible in our northern waters this afternoon with more widespread shower activity expected Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds will shift more northerly for the start of next week with shower activity staying in the interior part of the state.

FXUS62 KTBW 181202 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 802 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Very warm and humid conditions today with deep S-SW flow bringing high dew point airmass over the FL Peninsula as the Gulf seabreeze develops early and moves well inland by the afternoon with very low rain chances in coastal zones from the Tampa Bay area through SW FL. Another MCS is moving through the N Gulf and FL Panhandle this morning that is expected to weaken but move into N FL Peninsula later this afternoon with some strong to severe storms possible mainly over the Nature Coast. Will monitor radar trends through the day to access convective timing and strength potential.

Persistent long period swells continue to be generated by strong S-SE winds through the Yucatan Channel that are moving thru the Gulf then ashore local area beaches producing 2-3 ft breaking waves and potentially dangerous rip currents especially at SW facing beaches today and a rip current statement has been issued for these conditions.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions expected to continue today and tonight with gusty SW winds by 14Z through the afternoon pushing isolated seabreeze SHRA/TSRA well inland.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

For the weekend a cold front will start to push through the southeast. Ahead of it a shortwave is expected to once again push through the Panhandle and head west. The big difference from yesterday morning storms is the line looks to be a little more south but still should stay north of I-4. Timing looks to also be a little later focusing more on the early afternoon hours with severe weather possible. Areas south of I-4 will avoid the rain but will not be able to escape the heat with highs in the interior in the mid to upper 90's with head index in the low to mid 100's.

The actually front looks to start pushing through the area Sunday morning with more widespread showers possible throughout much of the area during the morning and afternoon hours. We will once again be looking at an isolate severe weather threat as the front pushes through.

Troughing will remain over the area for Monday and Tuesday mainly resulting in seabreeze storms in the interior during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Ridging looks to return for Wednesday through Friday resulting in more subsidence and keeping us dry but hot across the area.

MARINE
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Winds will remain out of the south and southwest throughout the weekend ahead of a cold front that will push through late on Sunday. A few showers will be possible in our northern waters this afternoon with more widespread shower activity expected Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds will shift more northerly for the start of next week with shower activity staying in the interior

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Cold front will be heading our way this weekend mainly bringing showers to the area on Sunday. Drier air will filter in behind the front giving some possible critical RHs on Monday in the interior south of I-4.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 77 86 75 / 30 40 70 20 FMY 93 78 90 76 / 10 30 50 30 GIF 94 75 88 72 / 30 40 70 20 SRQ 90 77 86 74 / 10 40 60 30 BKV 93 73 86 68 / 40 50 70 10 SPG 89 78 84 77 / 20 40 70 20

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Fort Myers
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Sat -- 01:00 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:34 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:57 PM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:34 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fort Myers, Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Sat -- 02:49 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:27 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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