Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mangonia Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:31PM Monday March 18, 2019 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:07PMMoonset 4:45AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 936 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet along the coast and 7 to 9 feet with occasional to 11 feet in the gulf stream. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Numerous showers late in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet along the coast and 8 to 10 feet with occasional to 13 feet in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Showers through the day. Scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots along the coast to northeast 15 to 25 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Numerous showers.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night and Friday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Friday night..Winds northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to east northeast 15 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 936 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis.. Hazardous boating conditions are developing across gulf and atlantic waters, as northerly wind will increase to 20 to 30 knots overnight and remain at similar speeds Tuesday and Tuesday night (while veering northeasterly). Seas in gulf waters will build to 6 to 8 feet, with atlantic seas increasing to 8 to 10 feet, higher in the gulf stream. A small craft advisory is in effect for gulf waters into Tuesday night and for atlantic waters through Wednesday, as high seas may continue in the atlantic through at least Wednesday. Widespread rain is expected into Tuesday night, with isolated Thunderstorms along with waterspouts possible in atlantic waters during this time.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas increasing to 7 to 9 feet tonight and 9 to 11 feet Tuesday, highest off palm beach county. Northeast wind of 20 to 30 knots, with gusts to gale force off palm beach county Tuesday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of mar 16, 2019 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 14 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 14 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mangonia Park, FL
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location: 26.73, -80.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 190058
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
858 pm edt Mon mar 18 2019

Update
Coastal convergence and its development of locally heavy
rainshowers is the main concern for tonight. Guidance continues to
suggest a band within about 20 miles of the atlantic coast setting
up where some heavy rainfall will occur. Where along the coast the
activity is heaviest and whether or not the line remains offshore
are two big uncertainties, and details of this are still not able
to be refined at this time. The more widespread light to moderate
rain associated with isentropic lift will likely not start until
toward dawn, but the banding along the east coast could initiate
as early as midnight. Have adjusted pops down for the next several
hours as radar returns are relatively sparse, otherwise no change
in the overnight forecast.

Prev discussion issued 727 pm edt Mon mar 18 2019
aviation...

scattered showers will become more numerous tonight into Tuesday
morning. Ceilings will favor MVFR through much of the TAF period,
with ifr possible, especially late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Nne to NE winds are generally expected, and wind speeds will
increase overnight with gusts up to 25 kt possible on Tuesday.

Ceilings should gradually improve to MVFRVFR late tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow evening.

Prev discussion... Issued 416 pm edt Mon mar 18 2019
discussion...

short term (tonight through Wednesday night)
with the cold front having stalled south of the region and the
much advertised shortwave trough remaining over the central gulf
today, an overcast yet dry day has ensued, with temperatures
getting a bit warmer than anticipated with the lack of rainfall.

Temperatures have peaked in the mid 70s to low 80s across the
region, despite being on the cool side of the boundary. Overall
synoptic setup remains unchanged from previous forecasts. Potent
shortwave trough and subtropical jet MAX will approach the region
tonight and cross south florida on Tuesday. This alone will
provide plenty of isentropic lift to support widespread moderate
showers across the region from late tonight through Tuesday
afternoon. Some heavy rain is possible with the aforementioned
features, but the most likely culprits for heavy rain will likely
come from two additional features. The first of these features
will be mesoscale in nature, thus there is inherent uncertainty in
timing and location of the heavy rain potential. Coastal
convergence may set up overnight in the vicinity of the the
atlantic coast, as marine flow turns more northeasterly and
enhances, while land flow continues with a cool advection north-
northwest regime. With pwats approaching 2 inches, this zone of
convergence could support locally quite heavy rainfall, and
various models have 4-6 inch bullseyes of precipitation forecast
overnight along the east coast, or adjacent waters. This should
mainly occur after 6z, and if this zone sets up over the waters,
significant rainfall could remain over the atlantic and not impact
the region. Still, wpc has highlight the east coast urban areas in
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall flooding. Mesoscale trends
will be closely monitored overnight.

The second feature that could lead to heavy rainfall is the
surface low that is expected to form along the nearly stationary
boundary over the keys in response to the shortwave trough. The
low track is forecast to remain south of the region, but if it
comes close enough, more widespread heavier showers may impact
southeastern parts of the area. This possible scenario could lead
to a few elevated thunderstorms as well.

Regardless of whether or not either heavy rain scenario holds
true, the widespread isentropic lift induced rainfall should
produce 1 to 3 inches across the region by Tuesday night.

Temperatures Tuesday will be cool due to the widespread rainfall,
with some areas likely not reaching 70 degrees. Upper level
support and moisture scour away on Wednesday, but low-level
moisture and northeast flow will prevail, potentially keeping
scattered to numerous showers ongoing along the atlantic coast.

Temperatures will rebound somewhat, but still be a bit below
normal for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maxima will mainly be in
the 70s with minima in the 50s interior, low to mid 60s across the
east coast urban areas.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
rain chances decrease on Thursday and for the remainder of the
forecast period as a another weak, dry frontal passage helps to
clear out the deeper moisture well to our south. Rainfall will
remain mostly along the atlantic and east coast until the front
clears. Thereafter, high pressure returns, allowing cooler and
drier air to filter in across the peninsula.

Marine...

hazardous boating conditions are developing this afternoon across
gulf and atlantic waters, as northerly wind will increase to 20 to
30 knots overnight and remain at similar speeds Tuesday and
Tuesday night (while veering northeasterly). Seas in gulf waters
will build to 6 to 8 feet, with atlantic seas increasing to 8 to
10 feet, higher in the gulf stream. A small craft advisory is in
effect for gulf waters into Tuesday night and for atlantic waters
through Wednesday, as high seas may continue in the atlantic
through at least Wednesday. Widespread rain is expected into
Tuesday night, with isolated thunderstorms along with waterspouts
possible in atlantic waters during this time.

Beach forecast...

due to forecast northeast wind of 20 to 30 mph, there is a high
risk of rip currents on atlantic beaches for Tuesday and Tuesday
night. This high risk will likely continue through at least
Thursday.

Hydrology...

widespread rainfall amounts from late tonight through Tuesday
night should average 1 to 2 inches across south florida, with 2 to
4 inches likely across the east coast metropolitan areas. Amounts
of this magnitude spread over 6 or more hours should not cause
significant flooding issues beyond urban street ponding, as
antecedent conditions are quite dry. However, localized much
higher amounts are possible, especially near the atlantic coast,
are possible, and these amounts, if they occur within a few hours,
may cause flooding. Wpc has placed the east coast urban areas in
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall flooding for tonight and
Tuesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 65 70 63 77 80 90 60 40
fort lauderdale 64 71 65 78 80 90 60 40
miami 65 72 65 79 70 80 60 40
naples 61 70 60 79 80 80 50 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk from 8 am edt Tuesday through Wednesday
morning for flz168-172-173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for amz650-651-670-
671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for gmz656-657-676.

Update... 23 sbk
discussion... 23 sbk
marine... 23 sbk
aviation... 32 mm
beach forecast... 23 sbk
hydrology... 23 sbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 8 mi38 min NNE 21 G 23 72°F 77°F1018.2 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 44 mi74 min NNW 6 G 12 73°F 1016.3 hPa65°F
PEGF1 45 mi44 min NNW 8.9 G 12 72°F 1016.9 hPa
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 55 mi68 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 74°F 1016.8 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL5 mi15 minNNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F64°F84%1017.5 hPa
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL24 mi13 minN 1010.00 miOvercast72°F64°F78%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from PBI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N8N12N9N8N7N7N6NW9NW4NW8NW8NW9NW5N96N9N10N12N12N13N11
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1 day agoCalmW4W4W4NW4NW4CalmNW4NW6NW6NW6NW5NW5CalmNW6NW6NE5NE9NE11NE10NE9N11N9N10
2 days agoSE5S7SE6CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmW4NW4W4S6SW6S4SE3SE7SE9SE9N6NE6N7NE5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Palm Beach, Florida
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Palm Beach
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Mon -- 12:45 AM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:17 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.4-0.10.51.42.22.832.82.21.50.70.1-0.2-0.10.41.222.732.92.51.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for West Palm Beach Canal, Florida
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West Palm Beach Canal
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Mon -- 02:01 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:32 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.2-0.4-0.20.41.222.52.72.52.11.50.80.2-0.1-0.20.20.91.72.42.72.72.31.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.